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Title: Modeling Climate Change Impacts on an Arctic Polygonal Tundra: 2. Changes in CO 2 and CH 4 Exchange Depend on Rates of Permafrost Thaw as Affected by Changes in Vegetation and Drainage

Abstract

Model projections of future CO 2 and CH 4 exchange in Arctic tundra diverge widely. Here we used ecosys to examine how climate change will affect CO 2 and CH 4 exchange in troughs, rims, and centers of a coastal polygonal tundra landscape at Barrow, AK. The model was shown to simulate diurnal and seasonal variation in CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes associated with those in air and soil temperatures ( Ta and Ts) and soil water contents (θ) under current climate in 2014 and 2015. During RCP 8.5 climate change from 2015 to 2085, rising Ta, atmospheric CO 2 concentrations ( C a), and precipitation ( P) increased net primary productivity (NPP) from 50–150 g C m -2 y -1, consistent with current biometric estimates, to 200–250 g C m -2 y -1. Concurrent increases in heterotrophic respiration ( R h) were slightly smaller, so that net CO 2 exchange rose from values of -25 (net emission) to +50 (net uptake) g C m -2 y -1 to ones of -10 to +65 g C m -2 y -1. Increases in net CO 2 uptake were largely offset by increases in CH 4 emissions from 0–6 to 1–20 g C m -2 y -1, reducing gains in net ecosystem productivity. As a result, these increases inmore » net CO 2 uptake and CH 4 emissions were modeled with hydrological boundary conditions that were assumed not to change with climate. Both these increases were smaller if boundary conditions were gradually altered to increase landscape drainage during model runs with climate change.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [2]
  1. Univ. of Alberta, Edmonton (Canada)
  2. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)
OSTI Identifier:
1574329
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1515792
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC02-05CH11231; AC02‐05CH11231
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 124; Journal Issue: 5; Journal ID: ISSN 2169-8953
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; tundra; Arctic; climate change; ecosys; CO2 exchange; CH4 exchange

Citation Formats

Grant, R. F., Mekonnen, Z. A., Riley, W. J., Arora, B., and Torn, M. S. Modeling Climate Change Impacts on an Arctic Polygonal Tundra: 2. Changes in CO2 and CH4 Exchange Depend on Rates of Permafrost Thaw as Affected by Changes in Vegetation and Drainage. United States: N. p., 2019. Web. doi:10.1029/2018jg004645.
Grant, R. F., Mekonnen, Z. A., Riley, W. J., Arora, B., & Torn, M. S. Modeling Climate Change Impacts on an Arctic Polygonal Tundra: 2. Changes in CO2 and CH4 Exchange Depend on Rates of Permafrost Thaw as Affected by Changes in Vegetation and Drainage. United States. doi:10.1029/2018jg004645.
Grant, R. F., Mekonnen, Z. A., Riley, W. J., Arora, B., and Torn, M. S. Fri . "Modeling Climate Change Impacts on an Arctic Polygonal Tundra: 2. Changes in CO2 and CH4 Exchange Depend on Rates of Permafrost Thaw as Affected by Changes in Vegetation and Drainage". United States. doi:10.1029/2018jg004645.
@article{osti_1574329,
title = {Modeling Climate Change Impacts on an Arctic Polygonal Tundra: 2. Changes in CO2 and CH4 Exchange Depend on Rates of Permafrost Thaw as Affected by Changes in Vegetation and Drainage},
author = {Grant, R. F. and Mekonnen, Z. A. and Riley, W. J. and Arora, B. and Torn, M. S.},
abstractNote = {Model projections of future CO2 and CH4 exchange in Arctic tundra diverge widely. Here we used ecosys to examine how climate change will affect CO2 and CH4 exchange in troughs, rims, and centers of a coastal polygonal tundra landscape at Barrow, AK. The model was shown to simulate diurnal and seasonal variation in CO2 and CH4 fluxes associated with those in air and soil temperatures (Ta and Ts) and soil water contents (θ) under current climate in 2014 and 2015. During RCP 8.5 climate change from 2015 to 2085, rising Ta, atmospheric CO2 concentrations (Ca), and precipitation (P) increased net primary productivity (NPP) from 50–150 g C m-2 y-1, consistent with current biometric estimates, to 200–250 g C m-2 y-1. Concurrent increases in heterotrophic respiration (Rh) were slightly smaller, so that net CO2 exchange rose from values of -25 (net emission) to +50 (net uptake) g C m-2 y-1 to ones of -10 to +65 g C m-2 y-1. Increases in net CO2 uptake were largely offset by increases in CH4 emissions from 0–6 to 1–20 g C m-2 y-1, reducing gains in net ecosystem productivity. As a result, these increases in net CO2 uptake and CH4 emissions were modeled with hydrological boundary conditions that were assumed not to change with climate. Both these increases were smaller if boundary conditions were gradually altered to increase landscape drainage during model runs with climate change.},
doi = {10.1029/2018jg004645},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences},
number = 5,
volume = 124,
place = {United States},
year = {2019},
month = {3}
}

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