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Title: Large loss of CO2 in winter observed across the northern permafrost region

Abstract

Recent warming in the Arctic, which has been amplified during the winter, greatly enhances microbial decomposition of soil organic matter and subsequent release of carbon dioxide (CO2)4. However, the amount of CO2 released in winter is not known and has not been well represented by ecosystem models or empirically based estimates. In this paper, we synthesize regional in situ observations of CO2 flux from Arctic and boreal soils to assess current and future winter carbon losses from the northern permafrost domain. We estimate a contemporary loss of 1,662 TgC per year from the permafrost region during the winter season (October–April). This loss is greater than the average growing season carbon uptake for this region estimated from process models (-1,032 TgC per year). Extending model predictions to warmer conditions up to 2100 indicates that winter CO2 emissions will increase 17% under a moderate mitigation scenario—Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5—and 41% under business-as-usual emissions scenario—Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Finally, our results provide a baseline for winter CO2 emissions from northern terrestrial regions and indicate that enhanced soil CO2 loss due to winter warming may offset growing season carbon uptake under future climatic conditions.

Authors:
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+ Show Author Affiliations
  1. Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA (United States)
  2. Univ. of Bayreuth (Germany)
  3. Univ. of Alaska, Anchorage, AK (United States). Environment and Natural Resources Inst.
  4. Brigham Young Univ., Provo, UT (United States). Dept. of Plant and Wildlife Sciences
  5. San Diego State Univ., CA (United States). Dept. of Biology
  6. Univ. of Gothenburg (Sweden). Dept. of Earth Sciences
  7. California Inst. of Technology (CalTech), Pasadena, CA (United States). Jet Propulsion Lab.
  8. Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff, AZ (United States). Center for Ecosystem Science and Society
  9. Aarhus Univ. (Denmark). Arctic Research Centre, Dept. of Bioscience
  10. Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway). NORCE Norwegian Research Centre
  11. Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY (United States). Dept. of Earth and Environmental Sciences of Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
  12. Arctic Univ. of Norway, Tromsø (Norway). Dept. of Arctic and Marine Biology, Faculty of Biosciences, Fisheries, and Economics
  13. Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Geological Sciences, and Bolin Centre for Climate Research
  14. Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States). Earth System Science
  15. Pacific Geographical Inst., Cherskii (Russia). Northeast Science Station
  16. Univ. of Montana, Missoula, MT (United States). W.A. Franke College of Forestry & Conservation, Numerical Terradynamic Simulation Group
  17. Dalhousie Univ., Halifax, NS (Canada). Dept. of Earth Sciences
  18. Univ. of Copenhagen (Denmark). Center for Permafrost, Dept. of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management
  19. Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States). Inst. of Arctic Biology
  20. Univ. of Copenhagen (Denmark). Dept. of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management
  21. Max Planck Inst. for Biogeochemistry, Jena (Germany)
  22. San Diego State Univ., CA (United States). Dept. of Biology; Univ. of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA (United States). Scripps Inst. of Oceanography
  23. Queen's Univ., Kingston, ON (Canada). Dept. of Biology
  24. McMaster Univ., Hamilton, ON (Canada). School of Geography and Earth Sciences; Univ. of Montreal, Montreal, QC (Canada). Dept. of Geography & Center for Northern Studies
  25. Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
  26. Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States). Environmental Science Division
  27. Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States). International Arctic Research Center
  28. Univ. of Hamburg (Germany). Inst. of Soil Science
  29. Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL (United States). Dept. of Plant Biology
  30. Korea Polar Research Inst., Incheon (South Korea)
  31. Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Shenyang (China). Inst. of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences Key Lab. of Forest Ecology and Management
  32. Colgate Univ., Hamilton, NY (United States). Dept. of Geography
  33. National Univ. of Singapore, Singapore (Singapore). Dept. of Geography
  34. Stanford Univ., CA (United States). Dept. of Earth System Science
  35. USGS Western Region, Menlo Park, CA (United States). Geology, Minerals, Energy, and Geophysics Science Center
  36. Univ. of Copenhagen (Denmark). Dept. of Biology
  37. San Diego State Univ., CA (United States). Dept. of Biology; Univ. of Exeter (United Kingdom)
  38. Univ. of Alberta, Edmonton, AB (Canada). Dept. of Renewable Resources
  39. Univ. of Oslo (Norway). Dept. of Geosciences; Lund Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science
  40. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD (United States). Biospheric Sciences Lab.
  41. Wilfrid Laurier Univ., Waterloo, ON (Canada)
  42. Univ. of Waterloo, ON (Canada). Water Inst. and Dept. of Earth & Environmental Sciences, Ecohydrology Research Group
  43. St. Francis Xavier Univ., Antigonish, NS (Canada)
  44. GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam (Germany)
  45. Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States). Cooperative Inst. for Research in Environmental Science, National Snow and Ice Data Center
  46. Univ. of Vienna (Austria). Dept. of Botany and Biodiversity Research
  47. Marine Biological Lab., Woods Hole, MA (United States). The Ecosystems Center
  48. Univ. of Montreal, Montreal, QC (Canada). Dept. of Geography & Center for Northern Studies
  49. Univ. of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL (United States). Dept. of Biological Sciences
  50. Univ. of Eastern Finland, Kuopio (Finland). Dept. of Environmental and Biological Science
  51. Univ. of Alaska, Anchorage, AK (United States). Dept. of Biological Sciences; Univ. of Oulu, Rovaniemi (Finland). Ecology and Genetics Research Unit
  52. Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States). Dept. of Geographical Sciences
  53. Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States). Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences
  54. San Diego State Univ., CA (United States). Dept. of Biology; Univ. of Sheffield (United Kingdom)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23). Terrestrial Ecosystem Science
OSTI Identifier:
1573251
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC02-06CH11357
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Nature Climate Change
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 9; Journal Issue: 11; Journal ID: ISSN 1758-678X
Publisher:
Nature Publishing Group
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Arctic; winter respiration

Citation Formats

Natali, Susan M., Watts, Jennifer D., Rogers, Brendan M., Potter, Stefano, Ludwig, Sarah M., Selbmann, Anne-Katrin, Sullivan, Patrick F., Abbott, Benjamin W., Arndt, Kyle A., Birch, Leah, Björkman, Mats P., Bloom, A. Anthony, Celis, Gerardo, Christensen, Torben R., Christiansen, Casper T., Commane, Roisin, Cooper, Elisabeth J., Crill, Patrick, Czimczik, Claudia, Davydov, Sergey, Du, Jinyang, Egan, Jocelyn E., Elberling, Bo, Euskirchen, Eugenie S., Friborg, Thomas, Genet, Hélène, Göckede, Mathias, Goodrich, Jordan P., Grogan, Paul, Helbig, Manuel, Jafarov, Elchin E., Jastrow, Julie D., Kalhori, Aram A. M., Kim, Yongwon, Kimball, John S., Kutzbach, Lars, Lara, Mark J., Larsen, Klaus S., Lee, Bang-Yong, Liu, Zhihua, Loranty, Michael M., Lund, Magnus, Lupascu, Massimo, Madani, Nima, Malhotra, Avni, Matamala, Roser, McFarland, Jack, McGuire, A. David, Michelsen, Anders, Minions, Christina, Oechel, Walter C., Olefeldt, David, Parmentier, Frans-Jan W., Pirk, Norbert, Poulter, Ben, Quinton, William, Rezanezhad, Fereidoun, Risk, David, Sachs, Torsten, Schaefer, Kevin, Schmidt, Niels M., Schuur, Edward A. G., Semenchuk, Philipp R., Shaver, Gaius, Sonnentag, Oliver, Starr, Gregory, Treat, Claire C., Waldrop, Mark P., Wang, Yihui, Welker, Jeffrey, Wille, Christian, Xu, Xiaofeng, Zhang, Zhen, Zhuang, Qianlai, and Zona, Donatella. Large loss of CO2 in winter observed across the northern permafrost region. United States: N. p., 2019. Web. doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0592-8.
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Natali, Susan M., Watts, Jennifer D., Rogers, Brendan M., Potter, Stefano, Ludwig, Sarah M., Selbmann, Anne-Katrin, Sullivan, Patrick F., Abbott, Benjamin W., Arndt, Kyle A., Birch, Leah, Björkman, Mats P., Bloom, A. Anthony, Celis, Gerardo, Christensen, Torben R., Christiansen, Casper T., Commane, Roisin, Cooper, Elisabeth J., Crill, Patrick, Czimczik, Claudia, Davydov, Sergey, Du, Jinyang, Egan, Jocelyn E., Elberling, Bo, Euskirchen, Eugenie S., Friborg, Thomas, Genet, Hélène, Göckede, Mathias, Goodrich, Jordan P., Grogan, Paul, Helbig, Manuel, Jafarov, Elchin E., Jastrow, Julie D., Kalhori, Aram A. M., Kim, Yongwon, Kimball, John S., Kutzbach, Lars, Lara, Mark J., Larsen, Klaus S., Lee, Bang-Yong, Liu, Zhihua, Loranty, Michael M., Lund, Magnus, Lupascu, Massimo, Madani, Nima, Malhotra, Avni, Matamala, Roser, McFarland, Jack, McGuire, A. David, Michelsen, Anders, Minions, Christina, Oechel, Walter C., Olefeldt, David, Parmentier, Frans-Jan W., Pirk, Norbert, Poulter, Ben, Quinton, William, Rezanezhad, Fereidoun, Risk, David, Sachs, Torsten, Schaefer, Kevin, Schmidt, Niels M., Schuur, Edward A. G., Semenchuk, Philipp R., Shaver, Gaius, Sonnentag, Oliver, Starr, Gregory, Treat, Claire C., Waldrop, Mark P., Wang, Yihui, Welker, Jeffrey, Wille, Christian, Xu, Xiaofeng, Zhang, Zhen, Zhuang, Qianlai, & Zona, Donatella. Large loss of CO2 in winter observed across the northern permafrost region. United States. doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0592-8.
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Natali, Susan M., Watts, Jennifer D., Rogers, Brendan M., Potter, Stefano, Ludwig, Sarah M., Selbmann, Anne-Katrin, Sullivan, Patrick F., Abbott, Benjamin W., Arndt, Kyle A., Birch, Leah, Björkman, Mats P., Bloom, A. Anthony, Celis, Gerardo, Christensen, Torben R., Christiansen, Casper T., Commane, Roisin, Cooper, Elisabeth J., Crill, Patrick, Czimczik, Claudia, Davydov, Sergey, Du, Jinyang, Egan, Jocelyn E., Elberling, Bo, Euskirchen, Eugenie S., Friborg, Thomas, Genet, Hélène, Göckede, Mathias, Goodrich, Jordan P., Grogan, Paul, Helbig, Manuel, Jafarov, Elchin E., Jastrow, Julie D., Kalhori, Aram A. M., Kim, Yongwon, Kimball, John S., Kutzbach, Lars, Lara, Mark J., Larsen, Klaus S., Lee, Bang-Yong, Liu, Zhihua, Loranty, Michael M., Lund, Magnus, Lupascu, Massimo, Madani, Nima, Malhotra, Avni, Matamala, Roser, McFarland, Jack, McGuire, A. David, Michelsen, Anders, Minions, Christina, Oechel, Walter C., Olefeldt, David, Parmentier, Frans-Jan W., Pirk, Norbert, Poulter, Ben, Quinton, William, Rezanezhad, Fereidoun, Risk, David, Sachs, Torsten, Schaefer, Kevin, Schmidt, Niels M., Schuur, Edward A. G., Semenchuk, Philipp R., Shaver, Gaius, Sonnentag, Oliver, Starr, Gregory, Treat, Claire C., Waldrop, Mark P., Wang, Yihui, Welker, Jeffrey, Wille, Christian, Xu, Xiaofeng, Zhang, Zhen, Zhuang, Qianlai, and Zona, Donatella. Mon . "Large loss of CO2 in winter observed across the northern permafrost region". United States. doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0592-8. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1573251.
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@article{osti_1573251,
title = {Large loss of CO2 in winter observed across the northern permafrost region},
author = {Natali, Susan M. and Watts, Jennifer D. and Rogers, Brendan M. and Potter, Stefano and Ludwig, Sarah M. and Selbmann, Anne-Katrin and Sullivan, Patrick F. and Abbott, Benjamin W. and Arndt, Kyle A. and Birch, Leah and Björkman, Mats P. and Bloom, A. Anthony and Celis, Gerardo and Christensen, Torben R. and Christiansen, Casper T. and Commane, Roisin and Cooper, Elisabeth J. and Crill, Patrick and Czimczik, Claudia and Davydov, Sergey and Du, Jinyang and Egan, Jocelyn E. and Elberling, Bo and Euskirchen, Eugenie S. and Friborg, Thomas and Genet, Hélène and Göckede, Mathias and Goodrich, Jordan P. and Grogan, Paul and Helbig, Manuel and Jafarov, Elchin E. and Jastrow, Julie D. and Kalhori, Aram A. M. and Kim, Yongwon and Kimball, John S. and Kutzbach, Lars and Lara, Mark J. and Larsen, Klaus S. and Lee, Bang-Yong and Liu, Zhihua and Loranty, Michael M. and Lund, Magnus and Lupascu, Massimo and Madani, Nima and Malhotra, Avni and Matamala, Roser and McFarland, Jack and McGuire, A. David and Michelsen, Anders and Minions, Christina and Oechel, Walter C. and Olefeldt, David and Parmentier, Frans-Jan W. and Pirk, Norbert and Poulter, Ben and Quinton, William and Rezanezhad, Fereidoun and Risk, David and Sachs, Torsten and Schaefer, Kevin and Schmidt, Niels M. and Schuur, Edward A. G. and Semenchuk, Philipp R. and Shaver, Gaius and Sonnentag, Oliver and Starr, Gregory and Treat, Claire C. and Waldrop, Mark P. and Wang, Yihui and Welker, Jeffrey and Wille, Christian and Xu, Xiaofeng and Zhang, Zhen and Zhuang, Qianlai and Zona, Donatella},
abstractNote = {Recent warming in the Arctic, which has been amplified during the winter, greatly enhances microbial decomposition of soil organic matter and subsequent release of carbon dioxide (CO2)4. However, the amount of CO2 released in winter is not known and has not been well represented by ecosystem models or empirically based estimates. In this paper, we synthesize regional in situ observations of CO2 flux from Arctic and boreal soils to assess current and future winter carbon losses from the northern permafrost domain. We estimate a contemporary loss of 1,662 TgC per year from the permafrost region during the winter season (October–April). This loss is greater than the average growing season carbon uptake for this region estimated from process models (-1,032 TgC per year). Extending model predictions to warmer conditions up to 2100 indicates that winter CO2 emissions will increase 17% under a moderate mitigation scenario—Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5—and 41% under business-as-usual emissions scenario—Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Finally, our results provide a baseline for winter CO2 emissions from northern terrestrial regions and indicate that enhanced soil CO2 loss due to winter warming may offset growing season carbon uptake under future climatic conditions.},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-019-0592-8},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
number = 11,
volume = 9,
place = {United States},
year = {2019},
month = {10}
}
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DOI:  10.1038/s41558-019-0592-8
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