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Title: A partition of the combined impacts of socioeconomic development and climate variation on economic risks of riverine floods

Abstract

Nonstationarities in both climate and socioeconomic systems play a role in flood risk. Based on a data-driven case study in an urbanized watershed subjected to nonstationary factors in climate (rain, snow, and rain on snow) and socioeconomic conditions (e.g., built environment market changes), a multi-scale, multi-model approach was adopted to develop local-scale flood hazard predictions and an analytical framework was developed to quantify the associated flood risk. The case study shows that socioeconomic development can have a comparable contribution as climate variability when evaluating the expected annual damage. Here, the relative contributions from socioeconomic development, in some cases, do not necessarily compound the risk, but can, in fact, act as a mitigating factor in annualized risk. Timelines of risk management planning are an important factor to consider. Socioeconomic factors such as market value can produce non-linear and reversed trends in flood impact assessments within the 10-year time frame. Further, the nonstationarity of climate and development conditions together was shown to cause up to 43% of the variation in risk estimates and up to 70% of the variation in the benefit-cost effectiveness.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1];  [1];  [1];  [1]
  1. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1572898
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1483328
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-124320
Journal ID: ISSN 1753-318X
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830; Laboratory Directed Research and Development
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Journal of Flood Risk Management
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 12; Journal Issue: S2; Journal ID: ISSN 1753-318X
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; benefit-cost appraisal; climate change; flood mitigation; risk assessment

Citation Formats

Feng, Youcan, Rakowski, Cynthia L., McPherson, Timothy N., and Judi, David R. A partition of the combined impacts of socioeconomic development and climate variation on economic risks of riverine floods. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1111/jfr3.12508.
Feng, Youcan, Rakowski, Cynthia L., McPherson, Timothy N., & Judi, David R. A partition of the combined impacts of socioeconomic development and climate variation on economic risks of riverine floods. United States. doi:10.1111/jfr3.12508.
Feng, Youcan, Rakowski, Cynthia L., McPherson, Timothy N., and Judi, David R. Fri . "A partition of the combined impacts of socioeconomic development and climate variation on economic risks of riverine floods". United States. doi:10.1111/jfr3.12508. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1572898.
@article{osti_1572898,
title = {A partition of the combined impacts of socioeconomic development and climate variation on economic risks of riverine floods},
author = {Feng, Youcan and Rakowski, Cynthia L. and McPherson, Timothy N. and Judi, David R.},
abstractNote = {Nonstationarities in both climate and socioeconomic systems play a role in flood risk. Based on a data-driven case study in an urbanized watershed subjected to nonstationary factors in climate (rain, snow, and rain on snow) and socioeconomic conditions (e.g., built environment market changes), a multi-scale, multi-model approach was adopted to develop local-scale flood hazard predictions and an analytical framework was developed to quantify the associated flood risk. The case study shows that socioeconomic development can have a comparable contribution as climate variability when evaluating the expected annual damage. Here, the relative contributions from socioeconomic development, in some cases, do not necessarily compound the risk, but can, in fact, act as a mitigating factor in annualized risk. Timelines of risk management planning are an important factor to consider. Socioeconomic factors such as market value can produce non-linear and reversed trends in flood impact assessments within the 10-year time frame. Further, the nonstationarity of climate and development conditions together was shown to cause up to 43% of the variation in risk estimates and up to 70% of the variation in the benefit-cost effectiveness.},
doi = {10.1111/jfr3.12508},
journal = {Journal of Flood Risk Management},
number = S2,
volume = 12,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {11}
}

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