A partition of the combined impacts of socioeconomic development and climate variation on economic risks of riverine floods

Feng, Youcan; Rakowski, Cynthia L.; McPherson, Timothy N.; Judi, David R.

doi:10.1111/jfr3.12508

Title: A partition of the combined impacts of socioeconomic development and climate variation on economic risks of riverine floods

Journal Article · 09 November 2018 · Journal of Flood Risk Management

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12508 · OSTI ID:1572898

^[1]; Rakowski, Cynthia L. ^[1]; McPherson, Timothy N. ^[1]; Judi, David R. ^[1]

Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Nonstationarities in both climate and socioeconomic systems play a role in flood risk. Based on a data-driven case study in an urbanized watershed subjected to nonstationary factors in climate (rain, snow, and rain on snow) and socioeconomic conditions (e.g., built environment market changes), a multi-scale, multi-model approach was adopted to develop local-scale flood hazard predictions and an analytical framework was developed to quantify the associated flood risk. The case study shows that socioeconomic development can have a comparable contribution as climate variability when evaluating the expected annual damage. Here, the relative contributions from socioeconomic development, in some cases, do not necessarily compound the risk, but can, in fact, act as a mitigating factor in annualized risk. Timelines of risk management planning are an important factor to consider. Socioeconomic factors such as market value can produce non-linear and reversed trends in flood impact assessments within the 10-year time frame. Further, the nonstationarity of climate and development conditions together was shown to cause up to 43% of the variation in risk estimates and up to 70% of the variation in the benefit-cost effectiveness.

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Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1572898

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA--124320

Journal Information:: Journal of Flood Risk Management, Journal Name: Journal of Flood Risk Management Journal Issue: S2 Vol. 12; ISSN 1753-318X

Publisher:: The Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management (CIWEM), WileyCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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