Title: Improving estimates of transmission capital costs for utility-scale wind and solar projects to inform renewable energy policy

Abstract

Estimating the overall costs of transmission needed to integrate variable renewable energy (VRE) onto the grid is challenging. An improved understanding of these transmission costs would support electricity system planning as VRE penetrations increase. This paper brackets VRE transmission capital costs using multiple approaches based on interconnection studies, actual transmission projects, capacity-expansion simulation models, and aggregated U.S. VRE-related transmission expenditures. Each approach possesses advantages and drawbacks, and combining the approaches lends confidence to the results. The resulting range of average levelized VRE transmission costs is 1– 10 dollars/MWh, which is generally lower than earlier estimates in the literature. These transmission capital costs can increase the direct plant-level levelized cost of VRE by 3%–33%, based on levelized costs of energy of 29– 56 dollars/MWh for utility-scale wind and 36–46 dollars/MWh for utility-scale solar. As VRE deployment continues to expand, policy makers can use this information to (1) assess the benefits of transmission avoidance and deferral when comparing distributed energy resources versus utility-scale projects, (2) evaluate the potential costs of large-scale public transmission investments, and (3) better analyze system-level costs of utility-scale VRE technologies. Future research can expand on the framework presented here by providing a review of operation and maintenance costsmore » for transmission systems. « less

Authors:

Gorman, Will ^[1]; Mills, Andrew ^[1]; Wiser, Ryan ^[1]

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+ Show Author Affiliations

1. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Publication Date:

2019-12-01

Research Org.:

Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:

USDOE Office of Electricity (OE)

OSTI Identifier:

1572067

Alternate Identifier(s):

OSTI ID: 1566915

Grant/Contract Number:  

AC02-05CH11231

Resource Type:

Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:

Energy Policy

Additional Journal Information:

Journal Volume: 135; Journal Issue: C; Journal ID: ISSN 0301-4215

Publisher:

Elsevier

Country of Publication:

United States

Language:

English

Subject:

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY