Assessing the value of improved variable renewable energy forecasting accuracy in the South African power system

Wright, Jarrad; Landwehr, Greg; Chartan, Erol

doi:10.17159/2413-3051/2019/v30i2a6293

Title: Assessing the value of improved variable renewable energy forecasting accuracy in the South African power system

Abstract

The value associated with an improved variable renewable energy (VRE) forecast has been quantified in this research. The value of improved VRE forecasts can increase with increasing VRE penetration levels as well as the range of this value becoming wider. This value also saturates with high levels of improved VRE forecasts as there is relatively lower impact of improving VRE forecasts further. This paper discusses how the improvement of VRE forecasting could impact the South African power system and representative United States power system jurisdictions.

Authors:

^[1];

^[2]

Council for Scientific and Industrial Research Energy Centre, Pretoria (South Africa)
National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

Publication Date:: Wed May 01 00:00:00 EDT 2019

Research Org.:: National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:: USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Wind and Water Technologies Office (EE-4W)

OSTI Identifier:: 1570189

Report Number(s):: NREL/JA-5D00-75109
Journal ID: ISSN 1021-447X

Grant/Contract Number:: AC36-08GO28308

Resource Type:: Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:: Journal of Energy in Southern Africa

Additional Journal Information:: Journal Volume: 30; Journal Issue: 2; Journal ID: ISSN 1021-447X

Publisher:: The Department of Chemical Engineering of the University of Cape Town

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Subject:: 24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION; 29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY; forecast; weather systems; uncertainty; production-cost model; day-ahead; real-time

Citation Formats


                    Wright, Jarrad, Landwehr, Greg, and Chartan, Erol. Assessing the value of improved variable renewable energy forecasting accuracy in the South African power system.  United States: N. p., 2019. 
Web.  doi:10.17159/2413-3051/2019/v30i2a6293.

Copy to clipboard


                    Wright, Jarrad, Landwehr, Greg, & Chartan, Erol. Assessing the value of improved variable renewable energy forecasting accuracy in the South African power system.  United States.  https://doi.org/10.17159/2413-3051/2019/v30i2a6293

Copy to clipboard


                    Wright, Jarrad, Landwehr, Greg, and Chartan, Erol. Wed .  
"Assessing the value of improved variable renewable energy forecasting accuracy in the South African power system".  United States.  https://doi.org/10.17159/2413-3051/2019/v30i2a6293.  https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1570189.

Copy to clipboard


                    
@article{osti_1570189,

  title        = {Assessing the value of improved variable renewable energy forecasting accuracy in the South African power system},

  author       = {Wright, Jarrad and Landwehr, Greg and Chartan, Erol},

  abstractNote = {The value associated with an improved variable renewable energy (VRE) forecast has been quantified in this research. The value of improved VRE forecasts can increase with increasing VRE penetration levels as well as the range of this value becoming wider. This value also saturates with high levels of improved VRE forecasts as there is relatively lower impact of improving VRE forecasts further. This paper discusses how the improvement of VRE forecasting could impact the South African power system and representative United States power system jurisdictions.},

  doi          = {10.17159/2413-3051/2019/v30i2a6293},

  journal      = {Journal of Energy in Southern Africa},

  number       = 2,

  volume       = 30,

  place        = {United States},

  year         = {Wed May 01 00:00:00 EDT 2019},

  month        = {Wed May 01 00:00:00 EDT 2019}

}

Copy to clipboard

Journal Article:

Free Publicly Available Full Text

Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Publisher's Version of Record

https://doi.org/10.17159/2413-3051/2019/v30i2a6293

Other availability

Search WorldCat to find libraries that may hold this journal

Citation Metrics:

Cited by: 1 work

Citation information provided by
Web of Science

Figures / Tables:

Table 1: South Africa existing electricity supply summary for 2017 (by technology - adapted). Source: Calitz & Wright (2017; Wright et al. (2017)

All figures and tables (21 total)

Save / Share:

Export Metadata

Save to My Library

Figures / Tables found in this record:

Figures/Tables have been extracted from DOE-funded journal article accepted manuscripts.

Similar Records in DOE PAGES and OSTI.GOV collections:

Comparing the Value of Improved Variable Renewable Energy Forecasting Accuracy in South African and United States Power Systems: Preprint

Conference Chartan, Erol Kevin ; Wright, J. ; Landwehr, G.

The value associated with an improved VRE forecast in has been quantified in this research. The value of improved VRE forecasts can increase with increasing VRE penetration levels with the range of this value becoming wider at increasing penetration levels. This value also saturates with high levels of improved VRE forecasts as there is relatively lower impact of improving VRE forecasts further. This paper discusses how the improvement of variable renewable energy (VRE) forecasting could impact the South African power system and a United States power system.
Full Text Available
Preliminary Findings of the South Africa Power System Capacity Expansion and Operational Modelling Study: Preprint

Conference Reber, Timothy J ; Chartan, Erol Kevin ; Brinkman, Gregory L

Wind and solar power contract prices have recently become cheaper than many conventional new-build alternatives in South Africa and trends suggest a continued increase in the share of variable renewable energy (vRE) on South Africa's power system with coal technology seeing the greatest reduction in capacity, see 'Figure 6: Percentage share by Installed Capacity (MW)' in [1]. Hence it is essential to perform a state-of-the-art grid integration study examining the effects of these high penetrations of vRE on South Africa's power system. Under the 21st Century Power Partnership (21CPP), funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, the National Renewable Energymore »« less
Full Text Available
Impacts of Variable Renewable Energy on Bulk Power System Assets, Pricing, and Costs

Technical Report Wiser, Ryan H. ; Mills, Andrew ; Seel, Joachim ; ...

We synthesize available literature, data, and analysis on the degree to which growth in variable renewable energy (VRE) has impacted to date or might in the future impact bulk power system assets, pricing, and costs. We do not analyze impacts on specific power plants, instead focusing on national and regional system-level trends. The issues addressed are highly context dependent—affected by the underlying generation mix of the system, the amount of wind and solar penetration, and the design and structure of the bulk power system in each region. Moreover, analyzing the impacts of VRE on the bulk power system is amore »« less
https://doi.org/10.2172/1411668

Full Text Available
The combined value of wind and solar power forecasting improvements and electricity storage

Journal Article Hodge, Bri-Mathias ; Brancucci Martinez-Anido, Carlo ; Wang, Qin ; ... - Applied Energy

As the penetration rates of variable renewable energy increase, the value of power systems operation flexibility technology options, such as renewable energy forecasting improvements and electricity storage, is also assumed to increase. In this work, we examine the value of these two technologies, when used independently and concurrently, for two real case studies that represent the generation mixes for the California and Midcontinent Independent System Operators (CAISO and MISO). Since both technologies provide additional system flexibility they reduce operational costs and renewable curtailment for both generation mixes under study. Interestingly, the relative impacts are quite similar when both technologies aremore »« less
Cited by 45
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.12.120

Full Text Available
Impacts of High Variable Renewable Energy Futures on Electric-Sector Decision Making: Demand-Side Effects

Technical Report Seel, Joachim ; Mills, Andrew D. ; Warner, Cody ; ...

Previous work by the Berkeley Lab describes how high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) such as wind and solar power could change wholesale electricity price dynamics. These include the timing of when electricity is cheap or expensive, locational differences in the cost of electricity, and the degree of regularity or predictability in those costs. Many decentralized decision-makers on the demand-side may not yet have considered the implications of these possible future changes. In this report, we evaluate the sensitivity of a set of demand-side decisions to different levels of VRE penetration ranging from a low of 5-20% to amore »« less
https://doi.org/10.2172/1631679

Full Text Available

Similar Records