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Title: A meta-analysis of 1,119 manipulative experiments on terrestrial carbon-cycling responses to global change

Abstract

Direct quantification of terrestrial biosphere responses to global change is crucial for projections of future climate change in Earth system models. In this study, we synthesized ecosystem carbon-cycling data from 1,119 experiments performed over the past four decades concerning changes in temperature, precipitation, CO2 and nitrogen across major terrestrial vegetation types of the world. Most experiments manipulated single rather than multiple global change drivers in temperate ecosystems of the USA, Europe and China. The magnitudes of warming and elevated CO2 treatments were consistent with the ranges of future projections, whereas those of precipitation changes and nitrogen inputs often exceeded the projected ranges. Increases in global change drivers consistently accelerated, but decreased precipitation slowed down carbon-cycle processes. Nonlinear (including synergistic and antagonistic) effects among global change drivers were rare. Belowground carbon allocation responded negatively to increased precipitation and nitrogen addition and positively to decreased precipitation and elevated CO2. The sensitivities of carbon variables to multiple global change drivers depended on the background climate and ecosystem condition, suggesting that Earth system models should be evaluated using site-specific conditions for best uses of this large dataset. Together, this synthesis underscores an urgent need to explore the interactions among multiple global change drivers inmore » underrepresented regions such as semi-arid ecosystems, forests in the tropics and subtropics, and Arctic tundra when forecasting future terrestrial carbon-climate feedback.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2];  [3]; ORCiD logo [4]; ORCiD logo [5]; ORCiD logo [6]; ORCiD logo [7];  [8];  [9]; ORCiD logo [10]; ORCiD logo [11];  [12]; ORCiD logo [13];  [13];  [14];  [15];  [16]; ORCiD logo [17]; ORCiD logo [18] more »;  [19];  [20]; ORCiD logo [21];  [22];  [23]; ORCiD logo [24]; ORCiD logo [3]; ORCiD logo [25];  [26]; ORCiD logo [27]; ORCiD logo [28];  [29]; ORCiD logo [30]; ORCiD logo [31];  [32];  [33];  [13];  [13];  [13];  [13];  [13];  [13];  [13];  [13];  [13];  [13];  [13];  [13];  [13];  [13];  [13];  [13];  [13];  [13];  [13];  [13];  [13];  [13];  [13] « less
+ Show Author Affiliations
  1. Hebei Univ., Boading (China). College of Life Sciences; Henan Univ., Kaifeng (China). School of Life Sciences, International Joint Research Lab. for Global Change Ecology
  2. Peking Univ, Beijing (China). College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Sino-French Inst. for Earth System Science; Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China). Center for Excellence in Tibetan Earth Science and Inst. of Tibetan Plateau Research, Key Lab. of Alpine Ecology
  3. Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States). Dept. of Biology and Graduate Degree Program in Ecology
  4. Univ. of Vermont, Burlington, VT (United States). Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources and Gund Inst. for Environment
  5. Univ. of Antwerp, Wilrijk (Belgium). Dept. of Biology, Centre of Excellence Plant and Vegetation Ecology (PLECO)
  6. Peking Univ, Beijing (China). College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Sino-French Inst. for Earth System Science; Lab. des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, Gif sur Yvette (France)
  7. Univ. of Tasmania, Hobart (Australia). School of Natural Sciences, Biological Sciences
  8. Auckland Univ. of Technology, Auckland (New Zealand). School of Science, Inst. for Applied Ecology New Zealand
  9. Univ. of Copenhagen, Copenhagen (Denmark). Dept. of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management
  10. Swedish Univ. of Agricultural Sciences, Umeå (Sweden). Dept. of Forest Ecology and Management
  11. East China Normal Univ., Shanghai (China). School of Ecological and Environmental Sciences, Shanghai Key Lab. for Urban Ecological Processes and Eco-Restoration, and Research Center for Global Change and Ecological Forecasting
  12. Peking Univ, Beijing (China). College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Sino-French Inst. for Earth System Science
  13. Henan Univ., Kaifeng (China). School of Life Sciences, International Joint Research Lab. for Global Change Ecology
  14. Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff, AZ (United States). Dept. of Biological Sciences, Center for Ecosystem Study and Society
  15. Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China). Inst. of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Key Lab. of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Center for Forest Ecosystem Studies
  16. Villanova Univ., Villanova, PA (United States). Dept. of Biology
  17. ETH, Zürich (Switzerland). Inst. for Atmospheric and Climate Science; Univ. of Bern, Bern (Switzerland). Climate and Environmental Physics
  18. Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States). Dept. of Forestry and Natural Resources and Dept. of Biological Sciences
  19. The Ecosystem Center, Woods Hole, MA (United States). Marine Biological Lab.
  20. Michigan State Univ., East Lansing, MI (United States). Dept. of Geography, Environment and Spatial Sciences, Center for Global Change and Earth Observations
  21. Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States). Dept. of Ecology, Evolution, and Organismal Biology; Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Environmental Molecular Sciences Lab.
  22. Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States). Energy and Resources Group; Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division
  23. United States Dept. of Agriculture Forest Service, Durham, NH (United States). Northern Research Station
  24. Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China). Inst. of Botany, State Key Lab. of Vegetation and Environmental Change
  25. Boston Univ., Boston, MA (United States). Dept. of Biology
  26. Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA (United States). Dept. of Forest Resources and Environmental Conservation
  27. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Inst.
  28. Indiana Univ., Bloomington, IN (United States). Dept. of Biology
  29. Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China). Inst. of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Key Lab. of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling
  30. ETH, Zurich (Switzerland). Inst. of Environmental Engineering
  31. CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Victoria (Australia)
  32. Binzhou Univ, Binzhou (China). Shandong Key Lab. of Eco-Environmental Science for the Yellow River Delta
  33. Binzhou Univ, Binzhou (China). Shandong Key Lab. of Eco-Environmental Science for the Yellow River Delta
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
OSTI Identifier:
1569379
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-00OR22725
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Nature Ecology and Evolution
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 3; Journal Issue: 9; Journal ID: ISSN 2397-334X
Publisher:
Nature Publishing Group
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats

Song, Jian, Wan, Shiqiang, Piao, Shilong, Knapp, Alan K., Classen, Aimée T., Vicca, Sara, Ciais, Philippe, Hovenden, Mark J., Leuzinger, Sebastian, Beier, Claus, Kardol, Paul, Xia, Jianyang, Liu, Qiang, Ru, Jingyi, Zhou, Zhenxing, Luo, Yiqi, Guo, Dali, Adam Langley, J., Zscheischler, Jakob, Dukes, Jeffrey S., Tang, Jianwu, Chen, Jiquan, Hofmockel, Kirsten S., Kueppers, Lara M., Rustad, Lindsey, Liu, Lingli, Smith, Melinda D., Templer, Pamela H., Quinn Thomas, R., Norby, Richard J., Phillips, Richard P., Niu, Shuli, Fatichi, Simone, Wang, Yingping, Shao, Pengshuai, Han, Hongyan, Wang, Dandan, Lei, Lingjie, Wang, Jiali, Li, Xiaona, Zhang, Qian, Li, Xiaoming, Su, Fanglong, Liu, Bin, Yang, Fan, Ma, Gaigai, Li, Guoyong, Liu, Yanchun, Liu, Yinzhan, Yang, Zhongling, Zhang, Kesheng, Miao, Yuan, Hu, Mengjun, Yan, Chuang, Zhang, Ang, Zhong, Mingxing, Hui, Yan, Li, Ying, and Zheng, Mengmei. A meta-analysis of 1,119 manipulative experiments on terrestrial carbon-cycling responses to global change. United States: N. p., 2019. Web. doi:10.1038/s41559-019-0958-3.
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Song, Jian, Wan, Shiqiang, Piao, Shilong, Knapp, Alan K., Classen, Aimée T., Vicca, Sara, Ciais, Philippe, Hovenden, Mark J., Leuzinger, Sebastian, Beier, Claus, Kardol, Paul, Xia, Jianyang, Liu, Qiang, Ru, Jingyi, Zhou, Zhenxing, Luo, Yiqi, Guo, Dali, Adam Langley, J., Zscheischler, Jakob, Dukes, Jeffrey S., Tang, Jianwu, Chen, Jiquan, Hofmockel, Kirsten S., Kueppers, Lara M., Rustad, Lindsey, Liu, Lingli, Smith, Melinda D., Templer, Pamela H., Quinn Thomas, R., Norby, Richard J., Phillips, Richard P., Niu, Shuli, Fatichi, Simone, Wang, Yingping, Shao, Pengshuai, Han, Hongyan, Wang, Dandan, Lei, Lingjie, Wang, Jiali, Li, Xiaona, Zhang, Qian, Li, Xiaoming, Su, Fanglong, Liu, Bin, Yang, Fan, Ma, Gaigai, Li, Guoyong, Liu, Yanchun, Liu, Yinzhan, Yang, Zhongling, Zhang, Kesheng, Miao, Yuan, Hu, Mengjun, Yan, Chuang, Zhang, Ang, Zhong, Mingxing, Hui, Yan, Li, Ying, & Zheng, Mengmei. A meta-analysis of 1,119 manipulative experiments on terrestrial carbon-cycling responses to global change. United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-019-0958-3
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Song, Jian, Wan, Shiqiang, Piao, Shilong, Knapp, Alan K., Classen, Aimée T., Vicca, Sara, Ciais, Philippe, Hovenden, Mark J., Leuzinger, Sebastian, Beier, Claus, Kardol, Paul, Xia, Jianyang, Liu, Qiang, Ru, Jingyi, Zhou, Zhenxing, Luo, Yiqi, Guo, Dali, Adam Langley, J., Zscheischler, Jakob, Dukes, Jeffrey S., Tang, Jianwu, Chen, Jiquan, Hofmockel, Kirsten S., Kueppers, Lara M., Rustad, Lindsey, Liu, Lingli, Smith, Melinda D., Templer, Pamela H., Quinn Thomas, R., Norby, Richard J., Phillips, Richard P., Niu, Shuli, Fatichi, Simone, Wang, Yingping, Shao, Pengshuai, Han, Hongyan, Wang, Dandan, Lei, Lingjie, Wang, Jiali, Li, Xiaona, Zhang, Qian, Li, Xiaoming, Su, Fanglong, Liu, Bin, Yang, Fan, Ma, Gaigai, Li, Guoyong, Liu, Yanchun, Liu, Yinzhan, Yang, Zhongling, Zhang, Kesheng, Miao, Yuan, Hu, Mengjun, Yan, Chuang, Zhang, Ang, Zhong, Mingxing, Hui, Yan, Li, Ying, and Zheng, Mengmei. Mon . "A meta-analysis of 1,119 manipulative experiments on terrestrial carbon-cycling responses to global change". United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-019-0958-3. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1569379.
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@article{osti_1569379,
title = {A meta-analysis of 1,119 manipulative experiments on terrestrial carbon-cycling responses to global change},
author = {Song, Jian and Wan, Shiqiang and Piao, Shilong and Knapp, Alan K. and Classen, Aimée T. and Vicca, Sara and Ciais, Philippe and Hovenden, Mark J. and Leuzinger, Sebastian and Beier, Claus and Kardol, Paul and Xia, Jianyang and Liu, Qiang and Ru, Jingyi and Zhou, Zhenxing and Luo, Yiqi and Guo, Dali and Adam Langley, J. and Zscheischler, Jakob and Dukes, Jeffrey S. and Tang, Jianwu and Chen, Jiquan and Hofmockel, Kirsten S. and Kueppers, Lara M. and Rustad, Lindsey and Liu, Lingli and Smith, Melinda D. and Templer, Pamela H. and Quinn Thomas, R. and Norby, Richard J. and Phillips, Richard P. and Niu, Shuli and Fatichi, Simone and Wang, Yingping and Shao, Pengshuai and Han, Hongyan and Wang, Dandan and Lei, Lingjie and Wang, Jiali and Li, Xiaona and Zhang, Qian and Li, Xiaoming and Su, Fanglong and Liu, Bin and Yang, Fan and Ma, Gaigai and Li, Guoyong and Liu, Yanchun and Liu, Yinzhan and Yang, Zhongling and Zhang, Kesheng and Miao, Yuan and Hu, Mengjun and Yan, Chuang and Zhang, Ang and Zhong, Mingxing and Hui, Yan and Li, Ying and Zheng, Mengmei},
abstractNote = {Direct quantification of terrestrial biosphere responses to global change is crucial for projections of future climate change in Earth system models. In this study, we synthesized ecosystem carbon-cycling data from 1,119 experiments performed over the past four decades concerning changes in temperature, precipitation, CO2 and nitrogen across major terrestrial vegetation types of the world. Most experiments manipulated single rather than multiple global change drivers in temperate ecosystems of the USA, Europe and China. The magnitudes of warming and elevated CO2 treatments were consistent with the ranges of future projections, whereas those of precipitation changes and nitrogen inputs often exceeded the projected ranges. Increases in global change drivers consistently accelerated, but decreased precipitation slowed down carbon-cycle processes. Nonlinear (including synergistic and antagonistic) effects among global change drivers were rare. Belowground carbon allocation responded negatively to increased precipitation and nitrogen addition and positively to decreased precipitation and elevated CO2. The sensitivities of carbon variables to multiple global change drivers depended on the background climate and ecosystem condition, suggesting that Earth system models should be evaluated using site-specific conditions for best uses of this large dataset. Together, this synthesis underscores an urgent need to explore the interactions among multiple global change drivers in underrepresented regions such as semi-arid ecosystems, forests in the tropics and subtropics, and Arctic tundra when forecasting future terrestrial carbon-climate feedback.},
doi = {10.1038/s41559-019-0958-3},
journal = {Nature Ecology and Evolution},
number = 9,
volume = 3,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Aug 19 00:00:00 EDT 2019},
month = {Mon Aug 19 00:00:00 EDT 2019}
}
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    Towards more predictive and interdisciplinary climate change ecosystem experiments
    journal, October 2019

    • Rineau, Francois; Malina, Robert; Beenaerts, Natalie
    • Nature Climate Change, Vol. 9, Issue 11
    • DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0609-3

    Phylogenetic conservation of soil bacterial responses to simulated global changes
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    • Isobe, Kazuo; Bouskill, Nicholas J.; Brodie, Eoin L.
    • Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Vol. 375, Issue 1798
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    Response to the Editor: Assessing the robustness of communities and ecosystems in global change research
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    • Muller, Ludo A. H.; Ballhausen, Max‐Bernhard; Lakovic, Milica
    • Global Change Biology, Vol. 26, Issue 2
    • DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14853

    Understanding ecosystems of the future will require more than realistic climate change experiments – A response to Korell et al.
    journal, October 2019

    • De Boeck, Hans J.; Bloor, Juliette M. G.; Aerts, Rien
    • Global Change Biology
    • DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14854

    Understanding plant communities of the future requires filling knowledge gaps
    journal, December 2019

    • Korell, Lotte; Auge, Harald; Chase, Jonathan M.
    • Global Change Biology, Vol. 26, Issue 2
    • DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14920

    Sensitivity of mangrove soil organic matter decay to warming and sea level change
    journal, January 2020

    • Arnaud, Marie; Baird, Andy J.; Morris, Paul J.
    • Global Change Biology, Vol. 26, Issue 3
    • DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14931

    Towards more predictive and interdisciplinary climate change ecosystem experiments
    text, January 2019

    • Rineau, Francois; Malina, Robert; Beenaerts, Natalie
    • Nature Publishing Group
    • DOI: 10.7892/boris.140029
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