Series of semi-Markov processes to model infrastructure resilience under multihazards

doi:10.1016/j.ress.2019.106659

This content will become publicly available on January 1, 2021

Title: Series of semi-Markov processes to model infrastructure resilience under multihazards

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Abstract

Civil infrastructure systems are subjected to multiple hazards, including natural and anthropogenic, that disrupt their function or the level of service offered. Estimating the function recovery of these systems (or how soon normalcy of operations will be restored) when subjected to repeated hazard events by considering the inter-event dependencies is an important problem in multihazard infrastructure resilience. However, this problem has been less addressed in the field. This paper proposes a series of semi-Markov processes model to capture the inter-event dependencies in infrastructure recovery when subjected to successive hazard events. Recovery after each new hazard event is represented by a unique semi-Markov process that models the reduced recovery rates and the increased recovery times caused by the system’s incomplete recovery from the preceding event. Two novel formulations of the inter-event dependency modeling, namely Maximal Effects Dependency (considers the worst impact of two successive hazard events) and Cumulative Effects Dependency (considers the aggregated impacts of two successive hazard events), are proposed and discussed. The model is demonstrated by considering the following applications: Three-state system subjected to deterministic and random occurrences of identical hazard events; and Multihazard resilience of a building in Charleston, SC, considering earthquake and hurricane hazards. Results indicate thatmore »« less

Authors:

^[1]; Flint, Madeleine M. ^[2]

Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Virginia Polytechnic Inst. and State Univ. (Virginia Tech), Blacksburg, VA (United States). Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Virginia Polytechnic Inst. and State Univ. (Virginia Tech), Blacksburg, VA (United States). Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering

Publication Date:: 2020-01-01

Research Org.:: Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:: USDOE Office of Environment, Health, Safety and Security (AU), Office of Nuclear Safety (AU-30)

OSTI Identifier:: 1567172

Report Number(s):: INL/JOU-19-55417-Rev000
Journal ID: ISSN 0951-8320

Grant/Contract Number:: DE-AC07-05ID14517

Resource Type:: Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:: Reliability Engineering and System Safety

Additional Journal Information:: Journal Volume: 193; Journal Issue: C; Journal ID: ISSN 0951-8320

Publisher:: Elsevier

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Subject:: 42 ENGINEERING; Semi-Markov Processes; System Recovery; Infrastructure Resilience; Hazard Events

Citation Formats


                    N. Dhulipala, Somayajulu L., and Flint, Madeleine M. Series of semi-Markov processes to model infrastructure resilience under multihazards.  United States: N. p., 2020. 
        Web.  doi:10.1016/j.ress.2019.106659.

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                    N. Dhulipala, Somayajulu L., & Flint, Madeleine M. Series of semi-Markov processes to model infrastructure resilience under multihazards.  United States.  doi:10.1016/j.ress.2019.106659.

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                    N. Dhulipala, Somayajulu L., and Flint, Madeleine M. Wed .  
        "Series of semi-Markov processes to model infrastructure resilience under multihazards".  United States.  doi:10.1016/j.ress.2019.106659.

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@article{osti_1567172,

  title        = {Series of semi-Markov processes to model infrastructure resilience under multihazards},

  author       = {N. Dhulipala, Somayajulu L. and Flint, Madeleine M.},

  abstractNote = {Civil infrastructure systems are subjected to multiple hazards, including natural and anthropogenic, that disrupt their function or the level of service offered. Estimating the function recovery of these systems (or how soon normalcy of operations will be restored) when subjected to repeated hazard events by considering the inter-event dependencies is an important problem in multihazard infrastructure resilience. However, this problem has been less addressed in the field. This paper proposes a series of semi-Markov processes model to capture the inter-event dependencies in infrastructure recovery when subjected to successive hazard events. Recovery after each new hazard event is represented by a unique semi-Markov process that models the reduced recovery rates and the increased recovery times caused by the system’s incomplete recovery from the preceding event. Two novel formulations of the inter-event dependency modeling, namely Maximal Effects Dependency (considers the worst impact of two successive hazard events) and Cumulative Effects Dependency (considers the aggregated impacts of two successive hazard events), are proposed and discussed. The model is demonstrated by considering the following applications: Three-state system subjected to deterministic and random occurrences of identical hazard events; and Multihazard resilience of a building in Charleston, SC, considering earthquake and hurricane hazards. Results indicate that considering inter-event dependencies in recovery modeling can lead to lesser-predicted resilience, thereby affecting resilience-based decision-making.},

  doi          = {10.1016/j.ress.2019.106659},

  journal      = {Reliability Engineering and System Safety},

  number       = C,

  volume       = 193,

  place        = {United States},

  year         = {2020},

  month        = {1}

}

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