skip to main content
DOE PAGES title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: Future crop yields and water productivity changes for Nebraska rainfed and irrigated crops

Abstract

In this study, we assessed future rainfed and irrigated crop yield and water productivity changes in Nebraska across multiple climate and emission scenarios using an empirical modeling approach. We found rainfed crops showed slightly increased crop water productivity while irrigated crops showed no change or decreased water productivity. Contrary to U.S.-wide studies reporting declines in crop yields, we projected Nebraska crop yields to increase overall with greatest increases in current rainfed fields due to combined effects from maximum and minimum temperatures. However, the increased rainfed yields are not sufficient to fully close the gap between rainfed and irrigated yields.

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [3]
  1. National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States). Climate and Global Dynamics Lab.; Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division
  2. Chengdu Univ. of Information Technology, Chengdu (China). School of Atmospheric Sciences
  3. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division; Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States). Energy and Resource Group
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
OSTI Identifier:
1567131
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC02-05CH11231
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Water International
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 43; Journal Issue: 6; Journal ID: ISSN 0250-8060
Publisher:
Taylor & Francis
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; crop yields; water productivity; irrigated crops; rainfed crops; Nebraska

Citation Formats

Lu, Yaqiong, Yang, Xianyu, and Kueppers, Lara. Future crop yields and water productivity changes for Nebraska rainfed and irrigated crops. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1080/02508060.2018.1516093.
Lu, Yaqiong, Yang, Xianyu, & Kueppers, Lara. Future crop yields and water productivity changes for Nebraska rainfed and irrigated crops. United States. doi:10.1080/02508060.2018.1516093.
Lu, Yaqiong, Yang, Xianyu, and Kueppers, Lara. Mon . "Future crop yields and water productivity changes for Nebraska rainfed and irrigated crops". United States. doi:10.1080/02508060.2018.1516093. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1567131.
@article{osti_1567131,
title = {Future crop yields and water productivity changes for Nebraska rainfed and irrigated crops},
author = {Lu, Yaqiong and Yang, Xianyu and Kueppers, Lara},
abstractNote = {In this study, we assessed future rainfed and irrigated crop yield and water productivity changes in Nebraska across multiple climate and emission scenarios using an empirical modeling approach. We found rainfed crops showed slightly increased crop water productivity while irrigated crops showed no change or decreased water productivity. Contrary to U.S.-wide studies reporting declines in crop yields, we projected Nebraska crop yields to increase overall with greatest increases in current rainfed fields due to combined effects from maximum and minimum temperatures. However, the increased rainfed yields are not sufficient to fully close the gap between rainfed and irrigated yields.},
doi = {10.1080/02508060.2018.1516093},
journal = {Water International},
number = 6,
volume = 43,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {10}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record

Figures / Tables:

Figure 1 Figure 1: 1982-2012 averaged harvested Hectares of rainfed and irrigated corn, soybean, and winter wheat in Nebraska at the county level (Source data: USDA NASS).

Save / Share:

Works referenced in this record:

The critical role of extreme heat for maize production in the United States
journal, March 2013

  • Lobell, David B.; Hammer, Graeme L.; McLean, Greg
  • Nature Climate Change, Vol. 3, Issue 5
  • DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1832

Water productivity and water footprint: misguided concepts or useful tools in water management and policy?
journal, November 2014


Water in the Balance
journal, June 2013


Greater Sensitivity to Drought Accompanies Maize Yield Increase in the U.S. Midwest
journal, May 2014


RegCM4: model description and preliminary tests over multiple CORDEX domains
journal, March 2012

  • Giorgi, F.; Coppola, E.; Solmon, F.
  • Climate Research, Vol. 52
  • DOI: 10.3354/cr01018

Climate and Management Contributions to Recent Trends in U.S. Agricultural Yields
journal, February 2003


Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to U.S. crop yields under climate change
journal, August 2009

  • Schlenker, Wolfram; Roberts, Michael J.
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 106, Issue 37
  • DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0906865106

Impact of growing season temperature on wheat productivity in China
journal, June 2009


Projected temperature changes indicate significant increase in interannual variability of U.S. maize yields: A Letter
journal, March 2012


Influence of extreme weather disasters on global crop production
journal, January 2016

  • Lesk, Corey; Rowhani, Pedram; Ramankutty, Navin
  • Nature, Vol. 529, Issue 7584
  • DOI: 10.1038/nature16467

Groundwater depletion and sustainability of irrigation in the US High Plains and Central Valley
journal, May 2012

  • Scanlon, B. R.; Faunt, C. C.; Longuevergne, L.
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 109, Issue 24
  • DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1200311109

Predicting Success in a Productive Asset Transfer Program: A Goat Program in Haiti
journal, March 2017

  • Thompson, William M.; Magnan, Nicholas
  • Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Vol. 39, Issue 2
  • DOI: 10.1093/aepp/ppx021

Prioritizing Climate Change Adaptation Needs for Food Security in 2030
journal, February 2008


A Regional Climate Change Assessment Program for North America
journal, September 2009

  • Mearns, Linda O.; Gutowski, William; Jones, Richard
  • Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, Vol. 90, Issue 36
  • DOI: 10.1029/2009EO360002

Impact of Climate Change and Variability on Irrigation Requirements: A Global Perspective
journal, August 2002


Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change
journal, December 2013

  • Elliott, Joshua; Deryng, Delphine; Müller, Christoph
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, Issue 9
  • DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1222474110

Potential impact of climate change on world food supply
journal, January 1994

  • Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Parry, Martin L.
  • Nature, Vol. 367, Issue 6459
  • DOI: 10.1038/367133a0

U.S. Agriculture and Climate Change: New Results
journal, March 2003


NCEP–DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis (R-2)
journal, November 2002

  • Kanamitsu, Masao; Ebisuzaki, Wesley; Woollen, Jack
  • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 83, Issue 11
  • DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-83-11-1631

The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program: Overview of Phase I Results
journal, September 2012

  • Mearns, Linda O.; Arritt, Ray; Biner, Sébastien
  • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 93, Issue 9
  • DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00223.1

    Figures/Tables have been extracted from DOE-funded journal article accepted manuscripts.