Underestimating Internal Variability Leads to Narrow Estimates of Climate System Properties
[1];
[2];
[3];
[4]
- Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric SciencePennsylvania State University University Park PA USA, Now at Cooperative Institute for Research in the AtmosphereColorado State University Fort Collins CO USA
- Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric SciencePennsylvania State University University Park PA USA, Earth and Environmental Systems InstitutePennsylvania State University University Park PA USA
- Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global ChangeMassachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge MA USA
- Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global ChangeMassachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge MA USA, Now at Department of Land, Air, and Water ResourcesUniversity of California Davis CA USA
Probabilistic estimates of climate system properties often rely on the comparison of model simulations to observed temperature records and an estimate of the internal climate variability. In this study, we investigate the sensitivity of probability distributions for climate system properties in the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Earth System Model to the internal variability estimate. In particular, we derive probability distributions using the internal variability extracted from 25 different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models. We further test the sensitivity by pooling variability estimates from models with similar characteristics. We find the distributions to be highly sensitive when estimating the internal variability from a single model. When merging the variability estimates across multiple models, the distributions tend to converge to a wider distribution for all properties. This suggests that using a single model to approximate the internal climate variability produces distributions that are too narrow and do not fully represent the uncertainty in the climate system property estimates.
- Research Organization:
- Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- National Science Foundation (NSF); USDOE Office of Science (SC)
- Grant/Contract Number:
- FG02-94ER61937
- OSTI ID:
- 1566269
- Journal Information:
- Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: 16 Vol. 46; ISSN 0094-8276
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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