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Title: Pervasive Foreshock Activity Across Southern California

Abstract

Foreshocks have been recorded as preceding less than half of all mainshock earthquakes. These observations are difficult to reconcile with laboratory earthquake experiments and theoretical models of earthquake nucleation, which both suggest that foreshock activity should be nearly ubiquitous. In this work, we use a state-of-the-art, high-resolution earthquake catalog to study foreshock sequences of magnitude M4 and greater mainshocks in southern California from 2008–2017. This highly complete catalog provides a new opportunity to examine smaller magnitude precursory seismicity. Seventy-two percent of mainshocks within this catalog are preceded by foreshock activity that is significantly elevated compared to the local background seismicity rate. Foreshock sequences vary in duration from several days to weeks, with a median of 16.6 days. The results imply that foreshock occurrence in nature is more prevalent than previously thought and that our understanding of earthquake nucleation may improve in tandem with advances in our ability to detect small earthquakes.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2]
  1. Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
  2. California Inst. of Technology (CalTech), Pasadena, CA (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)
OSTI Identifier:
1565870
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1548018
Report Number(s):
LA-UR-19-23605
Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
Grant/Contract Number:  
89233218CNA000001; 20180700PRD1
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Geophysical Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 46; Journal Issue: 15; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
58 GEOSCIENCES; foreshocks; earthquake catalogs; statistical seismology; earthquake triggering; earthquake nucleation

Citation Formats

Trugman, Daniel T., and Ross, Zachary E. Pervasive Foreshock Activity Across Southern California. United States: N. p., 2019. Web. doi:10.1029/2019GL083725.
Trugman, Daniel T., & Ross, Zachary E. Pervasive Foreshock Activity Across Southern California. United States. doi:10.1029/2019GL083725.
Trugman, Daniel T., and Ross, Zachary E. Tue . "Pervasive Foreshock Activity Across Southern California". United States. doi:10.1029/2019GL083725.
@article{osti_1565870,
title = {Pervasive Foreshock Activity Across Southern California},
author = {Trugman, Daniel T. and Ross, Zachary E.},
abstractNote = {Foreshocks have been recorded as preceding less than half of all mainshock earthquakes. These observations are difficult to reconcile with laboratory earthquake experiments and theoretical models of earthquake nucleation, which both suggest that foreshock activity should be nearly ubiquitous. In this work, we use a state-of-the-art, high-resolution earthquake catalog to study foreshock sequences of magnitude M4 and greater mainshocks in southern California from 2008–2017. This highly complete catalog provides a new opportunity to examine smaller magnitude precursory seismicity. Seventy-two percent of mainshocks within this catalog are preceded by foreshock activity that is significantly elevated compared to the local background seismicity rate. Foreshock sequences vary in duration from several days to weeks, with a median of 16.6 days. The results imply that foreshock occurrence in nature is more prevalent than previously thought and that our understanding of earthquake nucleation may improve in tandem with advances in our ability to detect small earthquakes.},
doi = {10.1029/2019GL083725},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = 15,
volume = 46,
place = {United States},
year = {2019},
month = {7}
}

Journal Article:
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