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Title: Decadal Shift of NAO-Linked Interannual Sea Level Variability along the U.S. Northeast Coast

Abstract

Recent studies have linked interannual sea level variability and extreme events along the U.S. northeast coast (NEC) to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a natural internal climate mode that prevails in the North Atlantic Ocean. The correlation between the NAO index and coastal sea level north of Cape Hatteras was weak from the 1960s to the mid-1980s, but it has markedly increased since around 1987. The causes for the decadal shift remain unknown. Yet understanding the abrupt change is vital for decadal sea level prediction and is essential for risk management. Here we use a robust method, the Bayesian dynamic linear model (DLM), to explore the nonstationary NAO impact on NEC sea level. The results show that a spatial pattern change of NAO-related winds near the NEC is a major cause of the NAO–sea level relationship shift. A new index using regional sea level pressure is developed that is a significantly better predictor of NEC sea level than is the NAO and is strongly linked to the intensity of westerly winds near the NEC. Finally, these results point to the vital importance of monitoring regional changes of wind and sea level pressure patterns, rather than the NAO index alone, tomore » achieve more accurate predictions of sea level change along the NEC.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [1];  [2];  [3]
  1. Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)
  2. Jenderal Soedirman Univ., Purwokerto (Indonesia)
  3. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
OSTI Identifier:
1565704
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Journal of Climate
Additional Journal Information:
[ Journal Volume: 31; Journal Issue: 13]; Journal ID: ISSN 0894-8755
Publisher:
American Meteorological Society
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; meteorology & atmospheric sciences; North Atlantic oscillation; sea level

Citation Formats

Kenigson, Jessica S., Han, Weiqing, Rajagopalan, Balaji, Yanto,, and Jasinski, Mike. Decadal Shift of NAO-Linked Interannual Sea Level Variability along the U.S. Northeast Coast. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1175/jcli-d-17-0403.1.
Kenigson, Jessica S., Han, Weiqing, Rajagopalan, Balaji, Yanto,, & Jasinski, Mike. Decadal Shift of NAO-Linked Interannual Sea Level Variability along the U.S. Northeast Coast. United States. doi:10.1175/jcli-d-17-0403.1.
Kenigson, Jessica S., Han, Weiqing, Rajagopalan, Balaji, Yanto,, and Jasinski, Mike. Fri . "Decadal Shift of NAO-Linked Interannual Sea Level Variability along the U.S. Northeast Coast". United States. doi:10.1175/jcli-d-17-0403.1. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1565704.
@article{osti_1565704,
title = {Decadal Shift of NAO-Linked Interannual Sea Level Variability along the U.S. Northeast Coast},
author = {Kenigson, Jessica S. and Han, Weiqing and Rajagopalan, Balaji and Yanto, and Jasinski, Mike},
abstractNote = {Recent studies have linked interannual sea level variability and extreme events along the U.S. northeast coast (NEC) to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a natural internal climate mode that prevails in the North Atlantic Ocean. The correlation between the NAO index and coastal sea level north of Cape Hatteras was weak from the 1960s to the mid-1980s, but it has markedly increased since around 1987. The causes for the decadal shift remain unknown. Yet understanding the abrupt change is vital for decadal sea level prediction and is essential for risk management. Here we use a robust method, the Bayesian dynamic linear model (DLM), to explore the nonstationary NAO impact on NEC sea level. The results show that a spatial pattern change of NAO-related winds near the NEC is a major cause of the NAO–sea level relationship shift. A new index using regional sea level pressure is developed that is a significantly better predictor of NEC sea level than is the NAO and is strongly linked to the intensity of westerly winds near the NEC. Finally, these results point to the vital importance of monitoring regional changes of wind and sea level pressure patterns, rather than the NAO index alone, to achieve more accurate predictions of sea level change along the NEC.},
doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-17-0403.1},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = [13],
volume = [31],
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {6}
}

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Works referencing / citing this record:

The Relationship Between U.S. East Coast Sea Level and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: A Review
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  • DOI: 10.1029/2019jc015152

Towards Comprehensive Observing and Modeling Systems for Monitoring and Predicting Regional to Coastal Sea Level
journal, July 2019