skip to main content
DOE PAGES title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: Dominating Roles of Ice Sheets and Insolation in Variation of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Over the North Atlantic During the Last 21,000 Years

Abstract

To further our knowledge on tropical cyclone (TC)'s sensitivity to various external forcings, we investigate evolution of TC genesis potential over the North Atlantic during the last 21,000 years that experienced more varied forcings than present-day using transient simulations. Abrupt large amplitude of fluctuations in genesis potential during the studied period was dominated by meltwater discharge, whereas insolation controlled the long-term trend. Increased (decreased) meltwater discharge from Northern Hemisphere ice sheets leads to detrimental (conducive) conditions for genesis via altering the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and hence three-dimensional temperature structure and Hadley circulation. This effect is larger than the orographic effect of retreated ice sheets that favors TC formation. Decreasing (increasing) insolation broadly results in more (less) favorable conditions for genesis arising from larger (smaller) local vertical temperature contrast and stronger (weaker) meridional circulation. Our research illustrates potential changes of ice sheets and insolation in affecting future long-term TC activity.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1];  [2]
  1. Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China); Nanjing Univ. of Technology (China)
  2. China Univ. of Geosciences, Wuhan (China)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC); National Key Research and Development Program of China; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NNSFC)
OSTI Identifier:
1565633
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Geophysical Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 44; Journal Issue: 20; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; tropical cyclone; ice sheets; orbital insolation

Citation Formats

Yan, Qing, and Zhang, Zhongshi. Dominating Roles of Ice Sheets and Insolation in Variation of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Over the North Atlantic During the Last 21,000 Years. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.1002/2017gl075786.
Yan, Qing, & Zhang, Zhongshi. Dominating Roles of Ice Sheets and Insolation in Variation of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Over the North Atlantic During the Last 21,000 Years. United States. doi:10.1002/2017gl075786.
Yan, Qing, and Zhang, Zhongshi. Tue . "Dominating Roles of Ice Sheets and Insolation in Variation of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Over the North Atlantic During the Last 21,000 Years". United States. doi:10.1002/2017gl075786. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1565633.
@article{osti_1565633,
title = {Dominating Roles of Ice Sheets and Insolation in Variation of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Over the North Atlantic During the Last 21,000 Years},
author = {Yan, Qing and Zhang, Zhongshi},
abstractNote = {To further our knowledge on tropical cyclone (TC)'s sensitivity to various external forcings, we investigate evolution of TC genesis potential over the North Atlantic during the last 21,000 years that experienced more varied forcings than present-day using transient simulations. Abrupt large amplitude of fluctuations in genesis potential during the studied period was dominated by meltwater discharge, whereas insolation controlled the long-term trend. Increased (decreased) meltwater discharge from Northern Hemisphere ice sheets leads to detrimental (conducive) conditions for genesis via altering the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and hence three-dimensional temperature structure and Hadley circulation. This effect is larger than the orographic effect of retreated ice sheets that favors TC formation. Decreasing (increasing) insolation broadly results in more (less) favorable conditions for genesis arising from larger (smaller) local vertical temperature contrast and stronger (weaker) meridional circulation. Our research illustrates potential changes of ice sheets and insolation in affecting future long-term TC activity.},
doi = {10.1002/2017gl075786},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = 20,
volume = 44,
place = {United States},
year = {2017},
month = {10}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record

Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 4 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

Save / Share:

Works referenced in this record:

Tropical Cyclone Genesis Factors in a Simulation of the Last Two Millennia: Results from the Community Earth System Model
journal, September 2015


Northern Hemisphere forcing of Southern Hemisphere climate during the last deglaciation
journal, February 2013

  • He, Feng; Shakun, Jeremy D.; Clark, Peter U.
  • Nature, Vol. 494, Issue 7435
  • DOI: 10.1038/nature11822

A Poisson Regression Index for Tropical Cyclone Genesis and the Role of Large-Scale Vorticity in Genesis
journal, May 2011

  • Tippett, Michael K.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Sobel, Adam H.
  • Journal of Climate, Vol. 24, Issue 9
  • DOI: 10.1175/2010JCLI3811.1

Tropical cyclones and climate change
journal, February 2010

  • Knutson, Thomas R.; McBride, John L.; Chan, Johnny
  • Nature Geoscience, Vol. 3, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.1038/ngeo779

Twenty-first-century projections of North Atlantic tropical storms from CMIP5 models
journal, May 2012

  • Villarini, Gabriele; Vecchi, Gabriel A.
  • Nature Climate Change, Vol. 2, Issue 8
  • DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1530

Evolution and forcing mechanisms of El Niño over the past 21,000 years
journal, November 2014


On the factors affecting trends and variability in tropical cyclone potential intensity: POTENTIAL INTENSITY TRENDS AND VARIABILITY
journal, October 2015

  • Wing, Allison A.; Emanuel, Kerry; Solomon, Susan
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 42, Issue 20
  • DOI: 10.1002/2015GL066145

Heightened tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic: natural variability or climate trend?
journal, July 2007

  • Holland, Greg J.; Webster, Peter J.
  • Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 365, Issue 1860
  • DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2007.2083

Low frequency variability of tropical cyclone potential intensity 1. Interannual to interdecadal variability
journal, January 2002


Elimination of the Greenland Ice Sheet in a High CO 2 Climate
journal, September 2005

  • Ridley, J. K.; Huybrechts, P.; Gregory, J. M.
  • Journal of Climate, Vol. 18, Issue 17
  • DOI: 10.1175/JCLI3482.1

Simulated Tropical Response to a Substantial Weakening of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation
journal, June 2005

  • Zhang, Rong; Delworth, Thomas L.
  • Journal of Climate, Vol. 18, Issue 12
  • DOI: 10.1175/JCLI3460.1

Variations in Tropical Cyclone Genesis Factors in Simulations of the Holocene Epoch
journal, December 2012

  • Korty, Robert L.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Galewsky, Joseph
  • Journal of Climate, Vol. 25, Issue 23
  • DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00033.1

Global and Regional Aspects of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the CMIP5 Models
journal, December 2013


Anthropogenic aerosol forcing of Atlantic tropical storms
journal, June 2013

  • Dunstone, N. J.; Smith, D. M.; Booth, B. B. B.
  • Nature Geoscience, Vol. 6, Issue 7
  • DOI: 10.1038/ngeo1854

Results of PMIP2 coupled simulations of the Mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum – Part 1: experiments and large-scale features
journal, January 2007

  • Braconnot, P.; Otto-Bliesner, B.; Harrison, S.
  • Climate of the Past, Vol. 3, Issue 2
  • DOI: 10.5194/cp-3-261-2007

Effect of remote sea surface temperature change on tropical cyclone potential intensity
journal, December 2007


Influence of Tropical Tropopause Layer Cooling on Atlantic Hurricane Activity
journal, April 2013


On the Seasonal Cycles of Tropical Cyclone Potential Intensity
journal, August 2017

  • Gilford, Daniel M.; Solomon, Susan; Emanuel, Kerry A.
  • Journal of Climate, Vol. 30, Issue 16
  • DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0827.1

Millennial-scale storminess variability in the northeastern United States during the Holocene epoch
journal, October 2002

  • Noren, Anders J.; Bierman, Paul R.; Steig, Eric J.
  • Nature, Vol. 419, Issue 6909
  • DOI: 10.1038/nature01132

Attribution of cyclogenesis region sea surface temperature change to anthropogenic influence
journal, January 2008

  • Gillett, N. P.; Stott, P. A.; Santer, B. D.
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 35, Issue 9
  • DOI: 10.1029/2008GL033670

Transient response of the MOC and climate to potential melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet in the 21st century
journal, January 2009

  • Hu, Aixue; Meehl, Gerald A.; Han, Weiqing
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 36, Issue 10
  • DOI: 10.1029/2009GL037998

The Impact of the Saharan Air Layer on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity
journal, March 2004

  • Dunion, Jason P.; Velden, Christopher S.
  • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 85, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-85-3-353

The sensitivity of hurricane frequency to ITCZ changes and radiatively forced warming in aquaplanet simulations: SENSITIVITY OF AQUAPLANET HURRICANES
journal, August 2013

  • Merlis, Timothy M.; Zhao, Ming; Held, Isaac M.
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 40, Issue 15
  • DOI: 10.1002/grl.50680

Tropical Cyclone Genesis Factors in Simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum
journal, June 2012

  • Korty, Robert L.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Galewsky, Joseph
  • Journal of Climate, Vol. 25, Issue 12
  • DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00517.1

Variations in large-scale tropical cyclone genesis factors over the western North Pacific in the PMIP3 last millennium simulations
journal, April 2016


A long-term numerical solution for the insolation quantities of the Earth
journal, November 2004


Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions
journal, May 2008

  • Knutson, Thomas R.; Sirutis, Joseph J.; Garner, Stephen T.
  • Nature Geoscience, Vol. 1, Issue 6
  • DOI: 10.1038/ngeo202

Changes in ITCZ location and cross-equatorial heat transport at the Last Glacial Maximum, Heinrich Stadial 1, and the mid-Holocene
journal, March 2014


Comparison of tropical cyclogenesis indices on seasonal to interannual timescales
journal, July 2011

  • Menkes, Christophe E.; Lengaigne, Matthieu; Marchesiello, Patrick
  • Climate Dynamics, Vol. 38, Issue 1-2
  • DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1126-x

Factors controlling Hadley circulation changes from the Last Glacial Maximum to the end of the 21st century: HADLEY CIRCULATION EXTENT AND STRENGTH
journal, August 2017

  • D'Agostino, Roberta; Lionello, Piero; Adam, Ori
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 44, Issue 16
  • DOI: 10.1002/2017GL074533

Consistent decrease in North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone frequency following major volcanic eruptions in the last three centuries: VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS AND TC FREQUENCY
journal, November 2015

  • Guevara-Murua, A.; Hendy, E. J.; Rust, A. C.
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 42, Issue 21
  • DOI: 10.1002/2015GL066154

Correlation and anti-correlation of the East Asian summer and winter monsoons during the last 21,000 years
journal, June 2016

  • Wen, Xinyu; Liu, Zhengyu; Wang, Shaowu
  • Nature Communications, Vol. 7, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.1038/ncomms11999

Linear weakening of the AMOC in response to receding glacial ice sheets in CCSM3: WEAKENING AMOC BY ICE-SHEET RETREAT
journal, September 2014

  • Zhu, Jiang; Liu, Zhengyu; Zhang, Xu
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 41, Issue 17
  • DOI: 10.1002/2014GL060891

A multi-model assessment of last interglacial temperatures
journal, January 2013


The International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS): Unifying Tropical Cyclone Data
journal, March 2010

  • Knapp, Kenneth R.; Kruk, Michael C.; Levinson, David H.
  • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 91, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.1175/2009BAMS2755.1

Transient Simulation of Last Deglaciation with a New Mechanism for Bolling-Allerod Warming
journal, July 2009


Diagnosis of the MJO Modulation of Tropical Cyclogenesis Using an Empirical Index
journal, October 2009

  • Camargo, Suzana J.; Wheeler, Matthew C.; Sobel, Adam H.
  • Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 66, Issue 10
  • DOI: 10.1175/2009JAS3101.1

Tropical cyclone activity enhanced by Sahara greening and reduced dust emissions during the African Humid Period
journal, May 2017

  • Pausata, Francesco S. R.; Emanuel, Kerry A.; Chiacchio, Marc
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 114, Issue 24
  • DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1619111114

Investigating the Use of a Genesis Potential Index for Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic Basin
journal, December 2012


Tropical cyclone genesis potential across palaeoclimates
journal, January 2015


More tropical cyclones in a cooler climate?
journal, August 2015

  • Sugi, Masato; Yoshida, Kohei; Murakami, Hiroyuki
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 42, Issue 16
  • DOI: 10.1002/2015GL064929

Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century
journal, July 2013


Increased tropical Atlantic wind shear in model projections of global warming: ATLANTIC WIND SHEAR AND GLOBAL WARMING
journal, April 2007

  • Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Soden, Brian J.
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 34, Issue 8
  • DOI: 10.1029/2006GL028905