Challenges and perspectives for large-scale temperature reconstructions of the past two millennia
Abstract
Knowledge of the temperature variability during the last one to two millennia is important for providing a perspective to present-day climate excursions, for assessing the sensitivity of the climate to different forcings, and for providing a test bed for climate models. Since systematic instrumental temperature records only extend back to the nineteenth century, such knowledge mainly relies on climate-sensitive proxy data. Here we critically assess some of the many challenges related to large-scale multiproxy temperature reconstructions. We begin with a review of available large-scale temperature reconstructions, focusing on the differences in low-frequency variability and the response to natural forcings such as major volcanic eruptions and changes in total solar irradiance. Then, we discuss different proxy selection strategies, review previously used reconstruction methods, and discuss their ability to reconstruct the amplitude of the low-frequency variability. To shed additional light on the challenges of large-scale reconstructions, we investigate the spatial and temporal correlation structures in the observed temperature field and discuss the implications of these correlation structures regarding the required number and positions of proxies. We demonstrate how the unavoidable uncertainty related to noisy proxies will show up as bias and variance in the reconstruction and that the partition between these formsmore »
- Authors:
-
[1];
[2]
- Danish Meteorological Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark). Dept. of Research and Development
- Stockholm Univ., Stockholm (Sweden). Dept. of History; Stockholm Univ., Stockholm (Sweden). Bolin Centre for Climate Research
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); National Science Foundation (NSF); Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1565534
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Reviews of Geophysics (1985)
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Reviews of Geophysics (1985); Journal Volume: 55; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 8755-1209
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Geochemistry & Geophysics; temperature reconstructions; temperature proxy records; climate variability; paleoclimate
Citation Formats
Christiansen, Bo, and Ljungqvist, Fredrik Charpentier. Challenges and perspectives for large-scale temperature reconstructions of the past two millennia. United States: N. p., 2019.
Web. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016rg000521.
Christiansen, Bo, & Ljungqvist, Fredrik Charpentier. Challenges and perspectives for large-scale temperature reconstructions of the past two millennia. United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016rg000521
Christiansen, Bo, and Ljungqvist, Fredrik Charpentier. Fri .
"Challenges and perspectives for large-scale temperature reconstructions of the past two millennia". United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016rg000521. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1565534.
@article{osti_1565534,
title = {Challenges and perspectives for large-scale temperature reconstructions of the past two millennia},
author = {Christiansen, Bo and Ljungqvist, Fredrik Charpentier},
abstractNote = {Knowledge of the temperature variability during the last one to two millennia is important for providing a perspective to present-day climate excursions, for assessing the sensitivity of the climate to different forcings, and for providing a test bed for climate models. Since systematic instrumental temperature records only extend back to the nineteenth century, such knowledge mainly relies on climate-sensitive proxy data. Here we critically assess some of the many challenges related to large-scale multiproxy temperature reconstructions. We begin with a review of available large-scale temperature reconstructions, focusing on the differences in low-frequency variability and the response to natural forcings such as major volcanic eruptions and changes in total solar irradiance. Then, we discuss different proxy selection strategies, review previously used reconstruction methods, and discuss their ability to reconstruct the amplitude of the low-frequency variability. To shed additional light on the challenges of large-scale reconstructions, we investigate the spatial and temporal correlation structures in the observed temperature field and discuss the implications of these correlation structures regarding the required number and positions of proxies. We demonstrate how the unavoidable uncertainty related to noisy proxies will show up as bias and variance in the reconstruction and that the partition between these forms of errors depends on the reconstruction method. Pseudo-proxy experiments are conducted to further discuss the influence of noise and the requirements regarding the geographical location and number of proxies necessary for reliably reconstructing the low-frequency variability. Finally, we conclude with recommendations for future large-scale temperature reconstructions.},
doi = {10.1002/2016rg000521},
journal = {Reviews of Geophysics (1985)},
number = 1,
volume = 55,
place = {United States},
year = {2019},
month = {12}
}
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- Esper, Jan; Schneider, Lea; Smerdon, Jason E.
- Columbia University
Continental-Scale Temperature Variability during the Past Two Millennia
text, January 2013
- Ahmed, Moinuddin; Anchukaitis, Kevin; Asrat, Asfawossen
- Columbia University
Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium
text, January 2015
- Group, PAGES 2k–PMIP3
- Columbia University
Timing and climate forcing of volcanic eruptions for the past 2,500 years.
text, January 2015
- Sigl, M.; Winstrup, M.; Welten, Kc
- Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository
Linear Regression Analysis
journal, February 1980
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- Technometrics, Vol. 22, Issue 1
Australasian Temperature Reconstructions Spanning the Last Millennium
text, January 2016
- Neukom, Raphael; Gallant, Ailie J. E.; Gergis, Joëlle
- American Meteorological Society
Inter-hemispheric temperature variability over the past millennium
text, January 2014
- Neukom, Raphael; Gergis, Joëlle; Karoly, David J.
- Columbia University
On the Origin of the Standardization Sensitivity in RegEM Climate Field Reconstructions
text, January 2008
- Smerdon, Jason E.; Kaplan, Alexey; Chang, Diana
- Columbia University
Climate models as a test bed for climate reconstruction methods: pseudoproxy experiments
text, January 2012
- Smerdon, Jason E.
- Columbia University
An ensemble-based approach to climate reconstructions
text, January 2012
- Bhend, Jonas; Franke, Jörg; Folini, Doris
- ETH Zurich
A Model-Based Approach to Climate Reconstruction Using Tree-Ring Data
text, January 2016
- Schofield, Matthew R.; Barker, Richard J.; Gelman, Andrew
- Taylor & Francis
Diverse growth trends and climate responses across Eurasia’s boreal forest
text, January 2016
- Hellmann, Lena; Tegel, Willy; Reinig, Frederick
- IOP Publishing
A Pseudoproxy Evaluation of the CCA and RegEM Methods for Reconstructing Climate Fields of the Last Millennium
text, January 2010
- Smerdon, Jason E.; Kaplan, Alexey; Chang, Diana
- Columbia University
Detection of Human Influence on a New, Validated 1500-Year Temperature Reconstruction
text, January 2007
- Hegerl, Gabriele C.; Crowley, Thomas J.; Pollack, Henry N.
- Columbia University
Daily, seasonal, and annual relationships between air and subsurface temperatures
text, January 2006
- Smerdon, Jason E.; Pollack, Henry N.; Cermak, Vladimir
- Columbia University
Works referencing / citing this record:
Temperature Covariance in Tree Ring Reconstructions and Model Simulations Over the Past Millennium: Last-Millennium Temperature Covariance
journal, September 2017
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The climate of the past millennium and online public engagement in a scientific debate
journal, May 2019
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- Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
Century-scale temperature variability and onset of industrial-era warming in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau
journal, May 2019
- Xu, Guobao; Liu, Xiaohong; Zhang, Qiong
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 53, Issue 7-8
Calibration and Validation of Environmental Controls on Planktic Foraminifera Mg/Ca Using Global Core‐Top Data
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- Saenger, Casey P.; Evans, Michael N.
- Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, Vol. 34, Issue 8
Internal and external forcing of multidecadal Atlantic climate variability over the past 1,200 years
journal, May 2017
- Wang, Jianglin; Yang, Bao; Ljungqvist, Fredrik Charpentier
- Nature Geoscience, Vol. 10, Issue 7
No evidence for globally coherent warm and cold periods over the preindustrial Common Era
journal, July 2019
- Neukom, Raphael; Steiger, Nathan; Gómez-Navarro, Juan José
- Nature, Vol. 571, Issue 7766
Assessing the performance of the BARCAST climate field reconstruction technique for a climate with long-range memory
journal, January 2018
- Nilsen, Tine; Werner, Johannes P.; Divine, Dmitry V.
- Climate of the Past, Vol. 14, Issue 6
Two millennia of Main region (southern Germany) hydroclimate variability
journal, January 2019
- Land, Alexander; Remmele, Sabine; Hofmann, Jutta
- Climate of the Past, Vol. 15, Issue 5
Identifying teleconnections and multidecadal variability of East Asian surface temperature during the last millennium in CMIP5 simulations
journal, January 2019
- Ratna, Satyaban B.; Osborn, Timothy J.; Joshi, Manoj
- Climate of the Past, Vol. 15, Issue 5
Assessment of ECMWF reanalysis data in complex terrain: Can the CERA‐20C and ERA‐Interim data sets replicate the variation in surface air temperatures over Sichuan, China?
journal, June 2019
- Luo, Haolin; Ge, Fei; Yang, Kangquan
- International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 39, Issue 15
The Little Ice Age signature in a 700-year high-resolution chironomid record of summer temperatures in the Central Eastern Alps
journal, December 2018
- Ilyashuk, Elena A.; Heiri, Oliver; Ilyashuk, Boris P.
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 52, Issue 11
Spatio-temporal variability of Arctic summer temperatures over the past 2 millennia
journal, January 2018
- Werner, Johannes P.; Divine, Dmitry V.; Charpentier Ljungqvist, Fredrik
- Climate of the Past, Vol. 14, Issue 4
Comparing proxy and model estimates of hydroclimate variability and change over the Common Era
text, January 2017
- PAGES Hydro2k, Consortium; Raible, Christoph
- Copernicus Publications
Possible causes of data model discrepancy in the temperature history of the last Millennium
text, January 2018
- Neukom, Raphael; Schurer, Andrew P.; Steiger, Nathan. J.
- Nature Publishing Group