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Title: Temperature and precipitation extremes in century-long gridded observations, reanalyses, and atmospheric model simulations

Abstract

Knowledge about long-term changes in climate extremes is vital to better understand multidecadal climate variability and long-term changes and to place today's extreme events in a historical context. While global changes in temperature and precipitation extremes since the midtwentieth century are well studied, knowledge about century-scale changes is limited. This paper analyses a range of largely independent observations-based data sets covering 1901–2010 for long-term changes and interannual variability in daily scale temperature and precipitation extremes. We compare across data sets for consistency to ascertain our confidence in century-scale changes in extremes. We find consistent warming trends in temperature extremes globally and in most land areas over the past century. For precipitation extremes we find global tendencies toward more intense rainfall throughout much of the twentieth century; however, local changes are spatially more variable. While global time series of the different data sets agree well after about 1950, they often show different changes during the first half of the twentieth century. In regions with good observational coverage, gridded observations and reanalyses agree well throughout the entire past century. Finally, simulations with an atmospheric model suggest that ocean temperatures and sea ice may explain up to about 50% of interannual variability inmore » the global average of temperature extremes, and about 15% in the global average of moderate precipitation extremes, but local correlations are mostly significant only in low latitudes.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [1];  [2]
  1. Univ. of New South Wales, Sydney (Australia). Climate Change Research Centre, and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science
  2. Univ. of Melbourne, Victoria (Australia). School of Earth Sciences, and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science; Monash Univ., Clayton, Victoria (Australia). School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Innovative and Novel Computational Impact on Theory and Experiment (INCITE) program; USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)
OSTI Identifier:
1565532
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 121; Journal Issue: 19; Journal ID: ISSN 2169-897X
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; meteorology & atmospheric sciences; Twentieth Century Reanalysis; HadEX2; ERA-20C; ERA-Clim; AMIP; climate extremes; climate change; climate variability

Citation Formats

Donat, Markus G., Alexander, Lisa V., Herold, Nicholas, and Dittus, Andrea J. Temperature and precipitation extremes in century-long gridded observations, reanalyses, and atmospheric model simulations. United States: N. p., 2016. Web. doi:10.1002/2016jd025480.
Donat, Markus G., Alexander, Lisa V., Herold, Nicholas, & Dittus, Andrea J. Temperature and precipitation extremes in century-long gridded observations, reanalyses, and atmospheric model simulations. United States. doi:10.1002/2016jd025480.
Donat, Markus G., Alexander, Lisa V., Herold, Nicholas, and Dittus, Andrea J. Wed . "Temperature and precipitation extremes in century-long gridded observations, reanalyses, and atmospheric model simulations". United States. doi:10.1002/2016jd025480. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1565532.
@article{osti_1565532,
title = {Temperature and precipitation extremes in century-long gridded observations, reanalyses, and atmospheric model simulations},
author = {Donat, Markus G. and Alexander, Lisa V. and Herold, Nicholas and Dittus, Andrea J.},
abstractNote = {Knowledge about long-term changes in climate extremes is vital to better understand multidecadal climate variability and long-term changes and to place today's extreme events in a historical context. While global changes in temperature and precipitation extremes since the midtwentieth century are well studied, knowledge about century-scale changes is limited. This paper analyses a range of largely independent observations-based data sets covering 1901–2010 for long-term changes and interannual variability in daily scale temperature and precipitation extremes. We compare across data sets for consistency to ascertain our confidence in century-scale changes in extremes. We find consistent warming trends in temperature extremes globally and in most land areas over the past century. For precipitation extremes we find global tendencies toward more intense rainfall throughout much of the twentieth century; however, local changes are spatially more variable. While global time series of the different data sets agree well after about 1950, they often show different changes during the first half of the twentieth century. In regions with good observational coverage, gridded observations and reanalyses agree well throughout the entire past century. Finally, simulations with an atmospheric model suggest that ocean temperatures and sea ice may explain up to about 50% of interannual variability in the global average of temperature extremes, and about 15% in the global average of moderate precipitation extremes, but local correlations are mostly significant only in low latitudes.},
doi = {10.1002/2016jd025480},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
number = 19,
volume = 121,
place = {United States},
year = {2016},
month = {9}
}

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Cited by: 25 works
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