Further Insights on the Influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the Following Year’s ENSO from Observations and CMIP5 Models
Abstract
Recent observational studies have suggested that negative and positive Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events (nIOD and pIOD, respectively) favor a transition toward, respectively, El Niño and La Niña events one year later. These statistical inferences are however limited by the length and uncertainties in the observational records. This paper compares observational datasets with twenty-one 155-yr historical simulations from phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5) to assess IOD and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) properties along with their synchronous and delayed relationships. In the observations and most CMIP5 models, it is shown that El Niños tend to be followed by La Niñas but not the opposite, that pIODs co-occur more frequently with El Niños than nIODs with La Niñas, that nIODs tend to be followed by El Niños one year later less frequently than pIODs by La Niñas, and that including an IOD index in a linear prediction based on the Pacific warm water volume improves ENSO peak hindcasts at 14 months lead. The IOD–ENSO delayed relationship partly results from a combination of ENSO intrinsic properties (e.g., the tendency for El Niños to be followed by La Niñas) and from the synchronous IOD–ENSO relationship. The results, however, reveal that this is not sufficientmore »
- Authors:
-
- Univ. of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW (Australia); Univ. of Grenoble (France); Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Grenoble (France)
- Sorbonne Univ., Paris (France); National Inst. of Oceanography, Goa (India)
- Sorbonne Univ., Paris (France)
- Univ. of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW (Australia)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1565518
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Climate
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 29; Journal Issue: 2; Journal ID: ISSN 0894-8755
- Publisher:
- American Meteorological Society
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences; Geographic location/entity; Indian Ocean; Circulation/ Dynamics; ENSO; Physical Meteorology and Climatology; Climate prediction; Mathematical and statistical techniques; Statistical techniques; Models and modeling; Climate models; Variability; Tropical variability
Citation Formats
Jourdain, Nicolas C., Lengaigne, Matthieu, Vialard, Jérome, Izumo, Takeshi, and Gupta, Alexander Sen. Further Insights on the Influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the Following Year’s ENSO from Observations and CMIP5 Models. United States: N. p., 2016.
Web. doi:10.1175/jcli-d-15-0481.1.
Jourdain, Nicolas C., Lengaigne, Matthieu, Vialard, Jérome, Izumo, Takeshi, & Gupta, Alexander Sen. Further Insights on the Influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the Following Year’s ENSO from Observations and CMIP5 Models. United States. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0481.1
Jourdain, Nicolas C., Lengaigne, Matthieu, Vialard, Jérome, Izumo, Takeshi, and Gupta, Alexander Sen. Mon .
"Further Insights on the Influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the Following Year’s ENSO from Observations and CMIP5 Models". United States. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0481.1. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1565518.
@article{osti_1565518,
title = {Further Insights on the Influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the Following Year’s ENSO from Observations and CMIP5 Models},
author = {Jourdain, Nicolas C. and Lengaigne, Matthieu and Vialard, Jérome and Izumo, Takeshi and Gupta, Alexander Sen},
abstractNote = {Recent observational studies have suggested that negative and positive Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events (nIOD and pIOD, respectively) favor a transition toward, respectively, El Niño and La Niña events one year later. These statistical inferences are however limited by the length and uncertainties in the observational records. This paper compares observational datasets with twenty-one 155-yr historical simulations from phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5) to assess IOD and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) properties along with their synchronous and delayed relationships. In the observations and most CMIP5 models, it is shown that El Niños tend to be followed by La Niñas but not the opposite, that pIODs co-occur more frequently with El Niños than nIODs with La Niñas, that nIODs tend to be followed by El Niños one year later less frequently than pIODs by La Niñas, and that including an IOD index in a linear prediction based on the Pacific warm water volume improves ENSO peak hindcasts at 14 months lead. The IOD–ENSO delayed relationship partly results from a combination of ENSO intrinsic properties (e.g., the tendency for El Niños to be followed by La Niñas) and from the synchronous IOD–ENSO relationship. The results, however, reveal that this is not sufficient to explain the high prevalence of pIOD–Niña transitions in the observations and 75% of the CMIP5 models, and of nIOD–Niño transitions in 60% of CMIP5 models. Lastly, this suggests that the tendency of IOD to lead ENSO by one year should be explained by a physical mechanism that, however, remains elusive in the CMIP5 models. The ability of many CMIP5 models to reproduce the delayed influence of the IOD on ENSO is nonetheless a strong incentive to explore extended-range dynamical forecasts of ENSO.},
doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-15-0481.1},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = 2,
volume = 29,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Jan 11 00:00:00 EST 2016},
month = {Mon Jan 11 00:00:00 EST 2016}
}
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