Atmospheric river landfall-latitude changes in future climate simulations
Abstract
The latitude of landfall for atmospheric rivers (ARs) is examined in the fully coupled half-degree version of the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) for warm future climate simulations. Specifically, two regions are examined: U.S. West Coast/North Pacific ARs and United Kingdom/North Atlantic ARs. Changes in AR landfall-latitude reflect changes in the atmospheric steering flow. West Coast U.S. ARs are projected to push equatorward in response to the subtropical jet climate change. UK AR response is dominated by eddy-driven jets and is seasonally dependent. UK simulated AR response is modest in the winter with the largest relative changes occurring in the seasonal transition months. Precipitation associated with ARs is also projected to increase in intensity under global warming. CCSM4 projects a marked shift to higher rainfall rates for Southern California. Small to modest rainfall rates may increase for all UK latitudes, for the Pacific Northwest, and central and northern California.
- Authors:
-
- National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- National Science Foundation (NSF); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1565408
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC05-00OR22725; FC02-97ER62402
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 43; Journal Issue: 16; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; geology; global change; atmospheric processes
Citation Formats
Shields, Christine A., and Kiehl, Jeffrey T. Atmospheric river landfall-latitude changes in future climate simulations. United States: N. p., 2016.
Web. doi:10.1002/2016gl070470.
Shields, Christine A., & Kiehl, Jeffrey T. Atmospheric river landfall-latitude changes in future climate simulations. United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl070470
Shields, Christine A., and Kiehl, Jeffrey T. Tue .
"Atmospheric river landfall-latitude changes in future climate simulations". United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl070470. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1565408.
@article{osti_1565408,
title = {Atmospheric river landfall-latitude changes in future climate simulations},
author = {Shields, Christine A. and Kiehl, Jeffrey T.},
abstractNote = {The latitude of landfall for atmospheric rivers (ARs) is examined in the fully coupled half-degree version of the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) for warm future climate simulations. Specifically, two regions are examined: U.S. West Coast/North Pacific ARs and United Kingdom/North Atlantic ARs. Changes in AR landfall-latitude reflect changes in the atmospheric steering flow. West Coast U.S. ARs are projected to push equatorward in response to the subtropical jet climate change. UK AR response is dominated by eddy-driven jets and is seasonally dependent. UK simulated AR response is modest in the winter with the largest relative changes occurring in the seasonal transition months. Precipitation associated with ARs is also projected to increase in intensity under global warming. CCSM4 projects a marked shift to higher rainfall rates for Southern California. Small to modest rainfall rates may increase for all UK latitudes, for the Pacific Northwest, and central and northern California.},
doi = {10.1002/2016gl070470},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = 16,
volume = 43,
place = {United States},
year = {Tue Aug 09 00:00:00 EDT 2016},
month = {Tue Aug 09 00:00:00 EDT 2016}
}
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