Influence of solar forcing, climate variability and modes of low-frequency atmospheric variability on summer floods in Switzerland
Abstract
The higher frequency of severe flood events in Switzerland in recent decades has given fresh impetus to the study of flood patterns and their possible forcing mechanisms, particularly in mountain environments. This paper presents a new index of summer flood damage that considers severe and catastrophic summer floods in Switzerland between 1800 and 2009, and explores the influence of external forcings on flood frequencies. In addition, links between floods and low-frequency atmospheric variability patterns are examined. The flood damage index provides evidence that the 1817–1851, 1881–1927, 1977–1990 and 2005–present flood clusters occur mostly in phase with palaeoclimate proxies. The cross-spectral analysis documents that the periodicities detected in the coherency and phase spectra of 11 (Schwabe cycle) and 104 years (Gleissberg cycle) are related to a high frequency of flooding and solar activity minima, whereas the 22-year cyclicity detected (Hale cycle) is associated with solar activity maxima and a decrease in flood frequency. The analysis of low-frequency atmospheric variability modes shows that Switzerland lies close to the border of the principal summer mode. The Swiss river catchments situated on the centre and southern flank of the Alps are affected by atmospherically unstable areas defined by the positive phase of the pattern,more »
- Authors:
-
[1];
- Meteorological Service of Catalonia, Barcelona (Spain)
- Univ. Autonoma de Barcelona (Spain). Dept. of Physical and Regional Geography, and Inst. Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avancats (ICREA)
- Swiss Federal Inst. for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, Birmensdorf (Switzerland). Mountain Hydrology and Mass Movements Research Unit
- Univ. of Barcelona, Barcelona (Spain). Dept. of Modern History, and Catalan Inst. of Climate Sciences (IC3)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1565398
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (Online)
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (Online); Journal Volume: 19; Journal Issue: 9; Journal ID: ISSN 1607-7938
- Publisher:
- European Geosciences Union (EGU)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Geology; Water Resources
Citation Formats
Peña, J. C., Schulte, L., Badoux, A., Barriendos, M., and Barrera-Escoda, A. Influence of solar forcing, climate variability and modes of low-frequency atmospheric variability on summer floods in Switzerland. United States: N. p., 2015.
Web. doi:10.5194/hess-19-3807-2015.
Peña, J. C., Schulte, L., Badoux, A., Barriendos, M., & Barrera-Escoda, A. Influence of solar forcing, climate variability and modes of low-frequency atmospheric variability on summer floods in Switzerland. United States. doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3807-2015
Peña, J. C., Schulte, L., Badoux, A., Barriendos, M., and Barrera-Escoda, A. Thu .
"Influence of solar forcing, climate variability and modes of low-frequency atmospheric variability on summer floods in Switzerland". United States. doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3807-2015. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1565398.
@article{osti_1565398,
title = {Influence of solar forcing, climate variability and modes of low-frequency atmospheric variability on summer floods in Switzerland},
author = {Peña, J. C. and Schulte, L. and Badoux, A. and Barriendos, M. and Barrera-Escoda, A.},
abstractNote = {The higher frequency of severe flood events in Switzerland in recent decades has given fresh impetus to the study of flood patterns and their possible forcing mechanisms, particularly in mountain environments. This paper presents a new index of summer flood damage that considers severe and catastrophic summer floods in Switzerland between 1800 and 2009, and explores the influence of external forcings on flood frequencies. In addition, links between floods and low-frequency atmospheric variability patterns are examined. The flood damage index provides evidence that the 1817–1851, 1881–1927, 1977–1990 and 2005–present flood clusters occur mostly in phase with palaeoclimate proxies. The cross-spectral analysis documents that the periodicities detected in the coherency and phase spectra of 11 (Schwabe cycle) and 104 years (Gleissberg cycle) are related to a high frequency of flooding and solar activity minima, whereas the 22-year cyclicity detected (Hale cycle) is associated with solar activity maxima and a decrease in flood frequency. The analysis of low-frequency atmospheric variability modes shows that Switzerland lies close to the border of the principal summer mode. The Swiss river catchments situated on the centre and southern flank of the Alps are affected by atmospherically unstable areas defined by the positive phase of the pattern, while those basins located in the northern slope of the Alps are predominantly associated with the negative phase of the pattern. Furthermore, a change in the low-frequency atmospheric variability pattern related to the major floods occurred over the period from 1800 to 2009; the summer principal mode persists in the negative phase during the last cool pulses of the Little Ice Age (1817–1851 and 1881–1927 flood clusters), whereas the positive phases of the mode prevail during the warmer climate of the last 4 decades (flood clusters from 1977 to present).},
doi = {10.5194/hess-19-3807-2015},
journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (Online)},
number = 9,
volume = 19,
place = {United States},
year = {2015},
month = {9}
}
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
Other availability
Search WorldCat to find libraries that may hold this journal
Cited by: 9 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science
Web of Science
Figures / Tables:
Figure 1: (a) Factor loadings of factor 1 versus factor 2 after the application of the PCA to the flood matrix without rotation. (b) Scree test and number of components selected. (c) Regionalization of Switzerland according to the PCA, applying the equamax rotation. The dotted lines show the limits ofmore »
All figures and tables
(13 total)
Save to My Library
You must Sign In or Create an Account in order to save documents to your library.
Works referenced in this record:
The largest floods in the High Rhine basin since 1268 assessed from documentary and instrumental evidence
journal, July 2011
- Wetter, Oliver; Pfister, Christian; Weingartner, Rolf
- Hydrological Sciences Journal, Vol. 56, Issue 5
Spectrum: spectral analysis of unevenly spaced paleoclimatic time series
journal, November 1997
- Schulz, Michael; Stattegger, Karl
- Computers & Geosciences, Vol. 23, Issue 9
Large variations in Holocene solar activity: Constraints from 10 Be in the Greenland Ice Core Project ice core
journal, January 2006
- Vonmoos, Maura; Beer, Jürg; Muscheler, Raimund
- Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 111, Issue A10
Observed and simulated impacts of the summer NAO in Europe: implications for projected drying in the Mediterranean region
journal, November 2011
- Bladé, Ileana; Liebmann, Brant; Fortuny, Didac
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 39, Issue 3-4
Extreme floods in central Europe over the past 500 years: Role of cyclone pathway “Zugstrasse Vb”: EXTREME FLOODS IN CENTRAL EUROPE
journal, December 2004
- Mudelsee, M.; Börngen, M.; Tetzlaff, G.
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 109, Issue D23
Holocene climate variability and periodicities in south-central Sweden, as interpreted from peat humification analysis
journal, April 2005
- Borgmark, Anders
- The Holocene, Vol. 15, Issue 3
Annual climate variability in the Holocene: interpreting the message of ancient trees
journal, January 2000
- Briffa, Keith R.
- Quaternary Science Reviews, Vol. 19, Issue 1-5
Applications of palaeoflood hydrology and historical data in flood risk analysis
journal, November 2005
- Benito, Gerardo; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.; Bárdossy, András
- Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 313, Issue 1-2
European Seasonal and Annual Temperature Variability, Trends, and Extremes Since 1500
journal, March 2004
- Luterbacher, J.
- Science, Vol. 303, Issue 5663
The importance of ship log data: reconstructing North Atlantic, European and Mediterranean sea level pressure fields back to 1750
journal, April 2009
- Küttel, M.; Xoplaki, E.; Gallego, D.
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 34, Issue 7-8
Contrasting patterns of hydrological changes in Europe in response to Holocene climate cooling phases
journal, July 2003
- Magny, Michel; Bégeot, Carole; Guiot, Joël
- Quaternary Science Reviews, Vol. 22, Issue 15-17
A 2000 year long seasonal record of floods in the southern European Alps: FLOOD SEASONALITY IN THE SOUTHERN ALPS
journal, August 2013
- Wirth, Stefanie B.; Gilli, Adrian; Simonneau, Anaëlle
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 40, Issue 15
Study of historical flood events on Spanish rivers using documentary data
journal, October 2006
- Barriendos, Mariano; Rodrigo, Fernando S.
- Hydrological Sciences Journal, Vol. 51, Issue 5
Lütschine fan delta response to climate variability and land use in the Bernese Alps during the last 2400 years
journal, July 2009
- Schulte, Lothar; Veit, Heinz; Burjachs, Francesc
- Geomorphology, Vol. 108, Issue 1-2
Solar Signal in the Number of Floods Recorded for the Tagus River Basin over the Last Millennium
journal, September 2004
- Vaquero, J. ~M.
- Climatic Change, Vol. 66, Issue 1/2
10Be in Ice Cores and 14C in Tree Rings: Separation of Production and Climate Effects
journal, January 2012
- Abreu, J. A.; Beer, J.; Steinhilber, F.
- Space Science Reviews, Vol. 176, Issue 1-4
Solar Influences on Climate
journal, January 2010
- Gray, L. J.; Beer, J.; Geller, M.
- Reviews of Geophysics, Vol. 48, Issue 4
Volcanic forcing of climate over the past 1500 years: An improved ice core-based index for climate models
journal, January 2008
- Gao, Chaochao; Robock, Alan; Ammann, Caspar
- Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 113, Issue D23
1400 years of extreme precipitation patterns over the Mediterranean French Alps and possible forcing mechanisms
journal, April 2012
- Wilhelm, Bruno; Arnaud, Fabien; Sabatier, Pierre
- Quaternary Research, Vol. 78, Issue 1
Changes in flood frequencies in Switzerland since 1500
journal, January 2010
- Schmocker-Fackel, P.; Naef, F.
- Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 14, Issue 8
A 600-year annual 10 Be record from the NGRIP ice core, Greenland
journal, January 2009
- Berggren, A. -M.; Beer, J.; Possnert, G.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 36, Issue 11
Is There Evidence for Solar Forcing of Climate in the GISP2 Oxygen Isotope Record?
journal, November 1997
- Stuiver, M.; Braziunas, T. F.; Grootes, P. M.
- Quaternary Research, Vol. 48, Issue 3
The Swiss flood and landslide damage database 1972–2007
journal, January 2009
- Hilker, N.; Badoux, A.; Hegg, C.
- Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 9, Issue 3
REDFIT: estimating red-noise spectra directly from unevenly spaced paleoclimatic time series
journal, April 2002
- Schulz, Michael; Mudelsee, Manfred
- Computers & Geosciences, Vol. 28, Issue 3
Reconstruction of sea level pressure fields over the Eastern North Atlantic and Europe back to 1500
journal, March 2002
- Luterbacher, J.; Xoplaki, E.; Dietrich, D.
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 18, Issue 7
Climatic change and contemporaneous land-use phases north and south of the Alps 2300 BC to 800 AD
journal, June 2003
- Tinner, Willy; Lotter, André F.; Ammann, Brigitta
- Quaternary Science Reviews, Vol. 22, Issue 14
The 100,000-Year Ice-Age Cycle Identified and Found to Lag Temperature, Carbon Dioxide, and Orbital Eccentricity
journal, September 2000
- Shackleton, N. J.
- Science, Vol. 289, Issue 5486
Glacier and lake-level variations in west-central Europe over the last 3500 years
journal, September 2005
- Holzhauser, Hanspeter; Magny, Michel; Zumbuühl, Heinz J.
- The Holocene, Vol. 15, Issue 6
A 2600-year history of floods in the Bernese Alps, Switzerland: frequencies, mechanisms and climate forcing
journal, January 2015
- Schulte, L.; Peña, J. C.; Carvalho, F.
- Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 19, Issue 7
Frequent floods in the European Alps coincide with cooler periods of the past 2500 years
journal, September 2013
- Glur, Lukas; Wirth, Stefanie B.; Büntgen, Ulf
- Scientific Reports, Vol. 3, Issue 1
The origin of lamination in stalagmites from Katerloch Cave, Austria: Towards a seasonality proxy
journal, August 2008
- Boch, Ronny; Spötl, Christoph
- PAGES news, Vol. 13, Issue 3
The variability of European floods since AD 1500
journal, March 2010
- Glaser, Rüdiger; Riemann, Dirk; Schönbein, Johannes
- Climatic Change, Vol. 101, Issue 1-2
Holocene flood frequency across the Central Alps – solar forcing and evidence for variations in North Atlantic atmospheric circulation
journal, November 2013
- Wirth, Stefanie B.; Glur, Lukas; Gilli, Adrian
- Quaternary Science Reviews, Vol. 80
The role of the sun in climate forcing
journal, January 2000
- Beer, J.; Mende, W.; Stellmacher, R.
- Quaternary Science Reviews, Vol. 19, Issue 1-5
Sensitivity of modern and Holocene floods to climate change
journal, January 2000
- Knox, James C.
- Quaternary Science Reviews, Vol. 19, Issue 1-5
Association between anomalies of moisture flux and extreme runoff events in the south-eastern Alps
journal, January 2011
- Müller, M.; Kaspar, M.
- Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, Vol. 11, Issue 3
A New Assessment of Possible Solar and Lunar Forcing of the Bidecadal Drought Rhythm in the Western United States
journal, June 1997
- Cook, Edward R.; Meko, David M.; Stockton, Charles W.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 10, Issue 6
An index of factorial simplicity
journal, March 1974
- Kaiser, Henry F.
- Psychometrika, Vol. 39, Issue 1
Atmospheric circulation dynamics linked with prominent discharge events in Central Europe
journal, October 2006
- Jacobeit, Jacundus; Philipp, Andreas; Nonnenmacher, Matthias
- Hydrological Sciences Journal, Vol. 51, Issue 5
Do high‐resolution fan delta records provide a useful tool for hazard assessment in mountain regions?
journal, May 2009
- Schulte, L.; Julià, R.; Veit, H.
- International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, Vol. 1, Issue 2
The noncentral chi-squared distribution with zero degrees of freedom and testing for uniformity
journal, January 1979
- Siegel, Andrew F.
- Biometrika, Vol. 66, Issue 2
The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project
journal, January 2011
- Compo, G. P.; Whitaker, J. S.; Sardeshmukh, P. D.
- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 137, Issue 654
Decadal prediction of Colorado River streamflow anomalies using ocean-atmosphere teleconnections: PREDICTING DECADAL STREAMFLOW
journal, December 2011
- Switanek, Matthew B.; Troch, Peter A.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 38, Issue 23
Summer Temperature Variations in the European Alps, a.d. 755–2004
journal, November 2006
- Büntgen, Ulf; Frank, David C.; Nievergelt, Daniel
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 19, Issue 21
Persistence of the Gleissberg 88-year solar cycle over the last ∼12,000years: Evidence from cosmogenic isotopes
journal, January 2003
- Peristykh, Alexei N.
- Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 108, Issue A1
More frequent flooding? Changes in flood frequency in Switzerland since 1850
journal, February 2010
- Schmocker-Fackel, Petra; Naef, Felix
- Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 381, Issue 1-2
GISP2 Oxygen Isotope Ratios
journal, May 2000
- Stuiver, Minze; Grootes, Pieter M.
- Quaternary Research, Vol. 53, Issue 3
The Scree Test For The Number Of Factors
journal, April 1966
- Cattell, Raymond B.
- Multivariate Behavioral Research, Vol. 1, Issue 2
The quasi-biennial oscillation
journal, May 2001
- Baldwin, M. P.; Gray, L. J.; Dunkerton, T. J.
- Reviews of Geophysics, Vol. 39, Issue 2
Trying to understand mountain flood dynamics from multi-proxy data: a 4600-year high resolution record from the Swiss Alps
journal, November 2012
- Schulte, Lothar
- Quaternary International, Vol. 279-280
A contribution to improved flood magnitude estimation in base of palaeoflood record and climatic implications – Guadiana River (Iberian Peninsula)
journal, January 2009
- Ortega, J. A.; Garzón, G.
- Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 9, Issue 1
The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project
journal, March 1996
- Kalnay, E.; Kanamitsu, M.; Kistler, R.
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 77, Issue 3
The Summer North Atlantic Oscillation: Past, Present, and Future
journal, March 2009
- Folland, Chris K.; Knight, Jeff; Linderholm, Hans W.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 22, Issue 5
The June 2013 flood in the Upper Danube Basin, and comparisons with the 2002, 1954 and 1899 floods
journal, January 2013
- Blöschl, G.; Nester, T.; Komma, J.
- Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 17, Issue 12
Temperature and precipitation variability in the European Alps since 1500
journal, January 2005
- Casty, Carlo; Wanner, Heinz; Luterbacher, Jürg
- International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 25, Issue 14
Climate and floods in Central Europe since AD 1000: Data, Methods, Results and Consequences
journal, November 2004
- Glaser, Rüdiger; Stangl, Heiko
- Surveys in Geophysics, Vol. 25, Issue 5-6
A 500-year precipitation record in Southern Spain
journal, September 1999
- Rodrigo, F. S.; Esteban-Parra, M. J.; Pozo-Vázquez, D.
- International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 19, Issue 11
Works referencing / citing this record:
Hydroclimatology, modes of climatic variability and stream flow, lake and groundwater level variability: A progress report
journal, August 2017
- McGregor, Glenn
- Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment, Vol. 41, Issue 4
Solar modulation of flood frequency in central Europe during spring and summer on interannual to multi-centennial timescales
journal, January 2016
- Czymzik, Markus; Muscheler, Raimund; Brauer, Achim
- Climate of the Past, Vol. 12, Issue 3
Figures / Tables found in this record:
Figures/Tables have been extracted from DOE-funded journal article accepted manuscripts.