skip to main content
DOE PAGES title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: Global temperature response to the major volcanic eruptions in multiple reanalysis data sets

Abstract

Abstract. The global temperature responses to the eruptions of Mount Agung in 1963, El Chichón in 1982, and Mount Pinatubo in 1991 are investigated using nine currently available reanalysis data sets (JRA-55, MERRA, ERA-Interim, NCEP-CFSR, JRA-25, ERA-40, NCEP-1, NCEP-2, and 20CR). Multiple linear regression is applied to the zonal and monthly mean time series of temperature for two periods, 1979–2009 (for eight reanalysis data sets) and 1958–2001 (for four reanalysis data sets), by considering explanatory factors of seasonal harmonics, linear trends, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, solar cycle, and El Niño Southern Oscillation. The residuals are used to define the volcanic signals for the three eruptions separately, and common and different responses among the older and newer reanalysis data sets are highlighted for each eruption. In response to the Mount Pinatubo eruption, most reanalysis data sets show strong warming signals (up to 2–3 K for 1-year average) in the tropical lower stratosphere and weak cooling signals (down to -1 K) in the subtropical upper troposphere. For the El Chichón eruption, warming signals in the tropical lower stratosphere are somewhat smaller than those for the Mount Pinatubo eruption. The response to the Mount Agung eruption is asymmetric about the equator with strong warming inmore » the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude upper troposphere to lower stratosphere. Comparison of the results from several different reanalysis data sets confirms the atmospheric temperature response to these major eruptions qualitatively, but also shows quantitative differences even among the most recent reanalysis data sets. The consistencies and differences among different reanalysis data sets provide a measure of the confidence and uncertainty in our current understanding of the volcanic response. The results of this intercomparison study may be useful for validation of climate model responses to volcanic forcing and for assessing proposed geoengineering by stratospheric aerosol injection, as well as to link studies using only a single reanalysis data set to other studies using a different reanalysis data set.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1];  [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [4]
  1. Hokkaido Univ., Sapporo (Japan). Graduate School of Environmental Science
  2. Kyoto Univ. (Japan). Research Inst. for Sustainable Humanosphere
  3. Univ. of Oxford (United Kingdom). Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics; NERC National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS), Leeds (United Kingdom)
  4. Univ. of Oxford (United Kingdom). Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
OSTI Identifier:
1565394
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (Online)
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (Online); Journal Volume: 15; Journal Issue: 23; Journal ID: ISSN 1680-7324
Publisher:
European Geosciences Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Citation Formats

Fujiwara, M., Hibino, T., Mehta, S. K., Gray, L., Mitchell, D., and Anstey, J. Global temperature response to the major volcanic eruptions in multiple reanalysis data sets. United States: N. p., 2015. Web. doi:10.5194/acp-15-13507-2015.
Fujiwara, M., Hibino, T., Mehta, S. K., Gray, L., Mitchell, D., & Anstey, J. Global temperature response to the major volcanic eruptions in multiple reanalysis data sets. United States. doi:10.5194/acp-15-13507-2015.
Fujiwara, M., Hibino, T., Mehta, S. K., Gray, L., Mitchell, D., and Anstey, J. Wed . "Global temperature response to the major volcanic eruptions in multiple reanalysis data sets". United States. doi:10.5194/acp-15-13507-2015. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1565394.
@article{osti_1565394,
title = {Global temperature response to the major volcanic eruptions in multiple reanalysis data sets},
author = {Fujiwara, M. and Hibino, T. and Mehta, S. K. and Gray, L. and Mitchell, D. and Anstey, J.},
abstractNote = {Abstract. The global temperature responses to the eruptions of Mount Agung in 1963, El Chichón in 1982, and Mount Pinatubo in 1991 are investigated using nine currently available reanalysis data sets (JRA-55, MERRA, ERA-Interim, NCEP-CFSR, JRA-25, ERA-40, NCEP-1, NCEP-2, and 20CR). Multiple linear regression is applied to the zonal and monthly mean time series of temperature for two periods, 1979–2009 (for eight reanalysis data sets) and 1958–2001 (for four reanalysis data sets), by considering explanatory factors of seasonal harmonics, linear trends, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, solar cycle, and El Niño Southern Oscillation. The residuals are used to define the volcanic signals for the three eruptions separately, and common and different responses among the older and newer reanalysis data sets are highlighted for each eruption. In response to the Mount Pinatubo eruption, most reanalysis data sets show strong warming signals (up to 2–3 K for 1-year average) in the tropical lower stratosphere and weak cooling signals (down to -1 K) in the subtropical upper troposphere. For the El Chichón eruption, warming signals in the tropical lower stratosphere are somewhat smaller than those for the Mount Pinatubo eruption. The response to the Mount Agung eruption is asymmetric about the equator with strong warming in the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude upper troposphere to lower stratosphere. Comparison of the results from several different reanalysis data sets confirms the atmospheric temperature response to these major eruptions qualitatively, but also shows quantitative differences even among the most recent reanalysis data sets. The consistencies and differences among different reanalysis data sets provide a measure of the confidence and uncertainty in our current understanding of the volcanic response. The results of this intercomparison study may be useful for validation of climate model responses to volcanic forcing and for assessing proposed geoengineering by stratospheric aerosol injection, as well as to link studies using only a single reanalysis data set to other studies using a different reanalysis data set.},
doi = {10.5194/acp-15-13507-2015},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (Online)},
number = 23,
volume = 15,
place = {United States},
year = {2015},
month = {12}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record

Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 13 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

Save / Share:

Works referenced in this record:

Integration of Space and In Situ Observations to Study Global Climate Change
journal, October 1988


Temporal inhomogeneities in radiosonde temperature records
journal, January 1994

  • Gaffen, Dian J.
  • Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 99, Issue D2
  • DOI: 10.1029/93JD03179

Coherent variations of monthly mean total ozone and lower stratospheric temperature
journal, January 1994

  • Randel, William J.; Cobb, Janel B.
  • Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 99, Issue D3
  • DOI: 10.1029/93JD03454

Tropical stratospheric circulation deduced from satellite aerosol data
journal, February 1992

  • Trepte, Charles R.; Hitchman, Matthew H.
  • Nature, Vol. 355, Issue 6361
  • DOI: 10.1038/355626a0

AMSU-A-Only Atmospheric Temperature Data Records from the Lower Troposphere to the Top of the Stratosphere
journal, April 2014


The Brewer-Dobson circulation
journal, June 2014


The ERA-40 re-analysis
journal, October 2005

  • Uppala, S. M.; KÅllberg, P. W.; Simmons, A. J.
  • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 131, Issue 612
  • DOI: 10.1256/qj.04.176

Effect of Volcanic Eruptions on the Vertical Temperature Profile in Radiosonde Data and Climate Models
journal, June 2009


The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project
journal, January 2011

  • Compo, G. P.; Whitaker, J. S.; Sardeshmukh, P. D.
  • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 137, Issue 654
  • DOI: 10.1002/qj.776

MERRA: NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications
journal, July 2011


Recalibration and merging of SSU observations for stratospheric temperature trend studies
journal, December 2014

  • Zou, Cheng-Zhi; Qian, Haifeng; Wang, Wenhui
  • Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 119, Issue 23
  • DOI: 10.1002/2014JD021603

Signatures of naturally induced variability in the atmosphere using multiple reanalysis datasets
journal, December 2014

  • Mitchell, D. M.; Gray, L. J.; Fujiwara, M.
  • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 141, Issue 691
  • DOI: 10.1002/qj.2492

Error Estimates of Version 5.0 of MSU–AMSU Bulk Atmospheric Temperatures
journal, May 2003


Construction of Stratospheric Temperature Data Records from Stratospheric Sounding Units
journal, April 2012


The NCEP–NCAR 50–Year Reanalysis: Monthly Means CD–ROM and Documentation
journal, February 2001


Stratospheric aerosol optical depths, 1850–1990
journal, January 1993

  • Sato, Makiko; Hansen, James E.; McCormick, M. Patrick
  • Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 98, Issue D12
  • DOI: 10.1029/93JD02553

A review of Stratospheric Sounding Unit radiance observations for climate trends and reanalyses
journal, February 2015

  • Nash, John; Saunders, Roger
  • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 141, Issue 691
  • DOI: 10.1002/qj.2505

The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis
journal, August 2010

  • Saha, Suranjana; Moorthi, Shrinivas; Pan, Hua-Lu
  • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 91, Issue 8
  • DOI: 10.1175/2010BAMS3001.1

An Evaluation and Intercomparison of Global Analyses from the National Meteorological Center and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts
journal, September 1988


The quasi-biennial oscillation
journal, May 2001

  • Baldwin, M. P.; Gray, L. J.; Dunkerton, T. J.
  • Reviews of Geophysics, Vol. 39, Issue 2
  • DOI: 10.1029/1999RG000073

Volcanic eruptions and climate
journal, May 2000


Attributing the forced components of observed stratospheric temperature variability to external drivers: Stratospheric Temperature Variability
journal, January 2016

  • Mitchell, D. M.
  • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 142, Issue 695
  • DOI: 10.1002/qj.2707

The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project
journal, March 1996


The JRA-25 Reanalysis
journal, January 2007

  • Onogi, Kazutoshi; Tsutsui, Junichi; Koide, Hiroshi
  • Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II, Vol. 85, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.2151/jmsj.85.369

The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system
journal, April 2011

  • Dee, D. P.; Uppala, S. M.; Simmons, A. J.
  • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 137, Issue 656
  • DOI: 10.1002/qj.828

The JRA-55 Reanalysis: General Specifications and Basic Characteristics
journal, January 2015

  • Kobayashi, Shinya; Ota, Yukinari; Harada, Yayoi
  • Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II, Vol. 93, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.2151/jmsj.2015-001

Characterization of the 11-Year Solar Signal Using a Multiple Regression Analysis of the ERA-40 Dataset
journal, April 2005

  • Crooks, Simon A.; Gray, Lesley J.
  • Journal of Climate, Vol. 18, Issue 7
  • DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-3308.1

Studying geoengineering with natural and anthropogenic analogs
journal, May 2013


NCEP–DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis (R-2)
journal, November 2002


Accounting for the effects of volcanoes and ENSO in comparisons of modeled and observed temperature trends
journal, November 2001

  • Santer, B. D.; Wigley, T. M. L.; Doutriaux, C.
  • Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 106, Issue D22
  • DOI: 10.1029/2000JD000189

Major influence of tropical volcanic eruptions on the stratospheric aerosol layer during the last decade: VOLCANIC INFLUENCE AERO STRATO
journal, June 2011

  • Vernier, J. -P.; Thomason, L. W.; Pommereau, J. -P.
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 38, Issue 12
  • DOI: 10.1029/2011GL047563