skip to main content
DOE PAGES title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: Is AMOC More Predictable than North Atlantic Heat Content?

Abstract

Predictability properties of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are measured and compared to those of the upper-500-m heat content in the North Atlantic based on control simulations from nine comprehensive coupled climate models. By estimating the rate at which perfect predictions from initially similar states diverge, the authors find the prediction range at which initialization loses its potential to have a positive impact on predictions. For the annual-mean AMOC, this range varies substantially from one model to another, but on average, it is about a decade. For eight of the models, this range is less than the corresponding range for heat content. For 5- and 10-yr averages, predictability is substantially greater than for annual means for both fields, but the enhancement is more for AMOC; indeed, for the averaged fields, AMOC is more predictable than heat content. Also, there are spatial patterns of AMOC that have especially high predictability. For the most predictable of these patterns, AMOC retains predictability for more than two decades in a typical model. These patterns are associated with heat content fluctuations that also have above-average predictability, which suggests that AMOC may have a positive influence on the predictability of heat content for these specialmore » structures.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [1]
  1. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF); Univ. Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
OSTI Identifier:
1565238
Grant/Contract Number:  
FC02-97ER62402; SC0005355
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Journal of Climate
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 27; Journal Issue: 10; Journal ID: ISSN 0894-8755
Publisher:
American Meteorological Society
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Citation Formats

Branstator, Grant, and Teng, Haiyan. Is AMOC More Predictable than North Atlantic Heat Content?. United States: N. p., 2014. Web. doi:10.1175/jcli-d-13-00274.1.
Branstator, Grant, & Teng, Haiyan. Is AMOC More Predictable than North Atlantic Heat Content?. United States. doi:10.1175/jcli-d-13-00274.1.
Branstator, Grant, and Teng, Haiyan. Fri . "Is AMOC More Predictable than North Atlantic Heat Content?". United States. doi:10.1175/jcli-d-13-00274.1. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1565238.
@article{osti_1565238,
title = {Is AMOC More Predictable than North Atlantic Heat Content?},
author = {Branstator, Grant and Teng, Haiyan},
abstractNote = {Predictability properties of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are measured and compared to those of the upper-500-m heat content in the North Atlantic based on control simulations from nine comprehensive coupled climate models. By estimating the rate at which perfect predictions from initially similar states diverge, the authors find the prediction range at which initialization loses its potential to have a positive impact on predictions. For the annual-mean AMOC, this range varies substantially from one model to another, but on average, it is about a decade. For eight of the models, this range is less than the corresponding range for heat content. For 5- and 10-yr averages, predictability is substantially greater than for annual means for both fields, but the enhancement is more for AMOC; indeed, for the averaged fields, AMOC is more predictable than heat content. Also, there are spatial patterns of AMOC that have especially high predictability. For the most predictable of these patterns, AMOC retains predictability for more than two decades in a typical model. These patterns are associated with heat content fluctuations that also have above-average predictability, which suggests that AMOC may have a positive influence on the predictability of heat content for these special structures.},
doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-13-00274.1},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = 10,
volume = 27,
place = {United States},
year = {2014},
month = {5}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record

Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 12 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

Figures / Tables:

FIG. 1 FIG. 1: Power spectra of the Atlantic overturning stream function (30°S–75°N) and the North Atlantic upper-500-m heat content (20°–75°N, 80°W–0°) based on the leading 10 PCs. Each spectrum is normalized to have the same total variance. (top) The nine model-averaged spectra of AMOC (red) and heat content (blue) with shadingmore » indicating ±1 across-model standard deviations. (bottom) The spectra of (left) AMOC and (right) heat content in the nine individual models. The error bars show the 5%–95% confidence interval, and the vertical dashed line is placed at a period of 15yr.« less

Save / Share:

Works referencing / citing this record:

Dynamical attribution of oceanic prediction uncertainty in the North Atlantic: application to the design of optimal monitoring systems
journal, November 2017

  • Sévellec, Florian; Dijkstra, Henk A.; Drijfhout, Sybren S.
  • Climate Dynamics, Vol. 51, Issue 4
  • DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3969-2