Search Menu
DOE PAGES title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information
Search Scholarly Publications

Title: Decadal Covariability of the Northern Wintertime Land Surface Temperature and Atmospheric Circulation

Abstract

The decadal covariability of northern wintertime land surface temperature and 500-hPa geopotential anomalies is examined using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research and the Twentieth-Century Reanalyses over the twentieth century and a 996-yr preindustrial climate simulation from the Canadian Earth System Model. Based on the reanalysis data, the covariability is dominated by two leading maximum covariance analysis (MCA) modes. MCA1 is characterized by temperature anomalies over most of Canada, the eastern United States, Mexico, and Eurasian mid- to high latitudes, accompanied by anomalies of opposite sign elsewhere over northern landmasses. MCA2 features temperature anomalies over most of North America, Eurasia, and Greenland with opposite anomalies elsewhere. In the upper troposphere the synoptic vorticity fluxes reinforce the anomalous circulation, while in the lower troposphere advection by the anomalous mean flow offsets the eddy forcing and maintains the decadal temperature perturbation. The MCA1-associated variability has a broad spectrum over decadal–interdecadal time scales, while the MCA2-related variability has a significant power peak around 20 yr. The change of temperature and geopotential trends around 1990 tends to be a decadal-scale shift in winter and has significant features of the leading mode of the decadal covariability. The climate model has broadlymore » similar decadal covariability, including the leading MCA patterns as well as the temporal evolution of the patterns. The decadal temperature and geopotential anomalies primarily covary with the North Atlantic Oscillation but also with the variability of the North Pacific index, while the Southern Oscillation index variability tends to be the least important predictor for the northern decadal temperature and geopotential anomalies.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [1];  [2];  [1]
+ Show Author Affiliations
  1. Environment Canada, Toronto, ON (Canada). Climate Research Division, Climate Data Analysis Section
  2. Environment Canada, Victoria, BC (Canada). Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Climate Research Division
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
OSTI Identifier:
1565237
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Journal of Climate
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 27; Journal Issue: 2; Journal ID: ISSN 0894-8755
Publisher:
American Meteorological Society
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences; Atmospheric circulation; Climate change; Climate variability; Surface temperature; Model evaluation/performance

Citation Formats

Yu, B., Wang, X. L., Zhang, X. B., Cole, J., and Feng, Y. Decadal Covariability of the Northern Wintertime Land Surface Temperature and Atmospheric Circulation. United States: N. p., 2014. Web. doi:10.1175/jcli-d-13-00266.1.
Copy to clipboard
Yu, B., Wang, X. L., Zhang, X. B., Cole, J., & Feng, Y. Decadal Covariability of the Northern Wintertime Land Surface Temperature and Atmospheric Circulation. United States. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-13-00266.1
Copy to clipboard
Yu, B., Wang, X. L., Zhang, X. B., Cole, J., and Feng, Y. Fri . "Decadal Covariability of the Northern Wintertime Land Surface Temperature and Atmospheric Circulation". United States. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-13-00266.1. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1565237.
Copy to clipboard
@article{osti_1565237,
title = {Decadal Covariability of the Northern Wintertime Land Surface Temperature and Atmospheric Circulation},
author = {Yu, B. and Wang, X. L. and Zhang, X. B. and Cole, J. and Feng, Y.},
abstractNote = {The decadal covariability of northern wintertime land surface temperature and 500-hPa geopotential anomalies is examined using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research and the Twentieth-Century Reanalyses over the twentieth century and a 996-yr preindustrial climate simulation from the Canadian Earth System Model. Based on the reanalysis data, the covariability is dominated by two leading maximum covariance analysis (MCA) modes. MCA1 is characterized by temperature anomalies over most of Canada, the eastern United States, Mexico, and Eurasian mid- to high latitudes, accompanied by anomalies of opposite sign elsewhere over northern landmasses. MCA2 features temperature anomalies over most of North America, Eurasia, and Greenland with opposite anomalies elsewhere. In the upper troposphere the synoptic vorticity fluxes reinforce the anomalous circulation, while in the lower troposphere advection by the anomalous mean flow offsets the eddy forcing and maintains the decadal temperature perturbation. The MCA1-associated variability has a broad spectrum over decadal–interdecadal time scales, while the MCA2-related variability has a significant power peak around 20 yr. The change of temperature and geopotential trends around 1990 tends to be a decadal-scale shift in winter and has significant features of the leading mode of the decadal covariability. The climate model has broadly similar decadal covariability, including the leading MCA patterns as well as the temporal evolution of the patterns. The decadal temperature and geopotential anomalies primarily covary with the North Atlantic Oscillation but also with the variability of the North Pacific index, while the Southern Oscillation index variability tends to be the least important predictor for the northern decadal temperature and geopotential anomalies.},
doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-13-00266.1},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = 2,
volume = 27,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri Jan 17 00:00:00 EST 2014},
month = {Fri Jan 17 00:00:00 EST 2014}
}
Copy to clipboard
Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-13-00266.1
Copyright Statement
Other availability
Search WorldCat Search WorldCat to find libraries that may hold this journal
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 6 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

Figures / Tables:

FIG. 1 FIG. 1: Standard deviations of (left) DJF mean surface air temperatures $T$$s$ and (center) decadal filtered DJF mean $T$$s$ and (right) the ratio of decadal filtered DJF standard deviation to DJF standard deviation over the northern extratropics (20°–90°N) for (top) NCEP-1 and (bottom) 20C. In (left)–(right), Contour intervals are 0.6°C,more » 0.4°C, and 10%, respectively. Values greater than 40% are hatched in the right panels.« less
All figures and tables (15 total)
Save / Share:
Export Metadata
Save to My Library
You must Sign In or Create an Account in order to save documents to your library.

Works referenced in this record:

Forcing of the Arctic Oscillation by Eurasian Snow Cover
journal, December 2011

Carbon emission limits required to satisfy future representative concentration pathways of greenhouse gases: ALLOWABLE FUTURE CARBON EMISSIONS
journal, March 2011

  • Arora, V. K.; Scinocca, J. F.; Boer, G. J.
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 38, Issue 5
  • DOI: 10.1029/2010GL046270

State of the Climate in 2011
journal, July 2012

Impacts of low frequency variability modes on Canadian winter temperature
journal, January 2001

  • Bonsal, Barrie R.; Shabbar, Amir; Higuchi, Kaz
  • International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 21, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.1002/joc.590

Organization of Storm Track Anomalies by Recurring Low-Frequency Circulation Anomalies
journal, January 1995

An Intercomparison of Methods for Finding Coupled Patterns in Climate Data
journal, June 1992

Arctic Oscillation responses to greenhouse warming and role of synoptic eddy feedback
journal, January 2010

  • Choi, Da-Hee; Kug, Jong-Seong; Kwon, Won-Tae
  • Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 115, Issue D17
  • DOI: 10.1029/2010JD014160

Stratosphere–Troposphere Coupling and Links with Eurasian Land Surface Variability
journal, November 2007

  • Cohen, Judah; Barlow, Mathew; Kushner, Paul J.
  • Journal of Climate, Vol. 20, Issue 21
  • DOI: 10.1175/2007JCLI1725.1

Arctic warming, increasing snow cover and widespread boreal winter cooling
journal, January 2012

The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project
journal, January 2011

  • Compo, G. P.; Whitaker, J. S.; Sardeshmukh, P. D.
  • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 137, Issue 654
  • DOI: 10.1002/qj.776

Pacific Interdecadal Climate Variability: Linkages between the Tropics and the North Pacific during Boreal Winter since 1900
journal, August 2004

Separating Different Scales of Motion in Time Series of Meteorological Variables
journal, July 1997

Stratospheric control of the extratropical circulation response to surface forcing
journal, January 2007

  • Fletcher, Christopher G.; Kushner, Paul J.; Cohen, Judah
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 34, Issue 21
  • DOI: 10.1029/2007GL031626

The NCAR Climate System Model Global Ocean Component*
journal, June 1998

Examination of the Strengthening of Wintertime Mid-latitude Westerlies over the North Pacific in the 1970s [1970年代の北太平洋上冬季中緯度偏西風強化の検討]
journal, January 1996

  • Hanawa, Kimio; Ishizaki, Shiro; Tanimoto, Youichi
  • Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II, Vol. 74, Issue 5
  • DOI: 10.2151/jmsj1965.74.5_715

Global Surface Temperature Change
journal, January 2010

Empirical evidence for North Pacific regime shifts in 1977 and 1989
journal, October 2000

Stochastic climate models Part I. Theory
journal, January 1976

Influence of variations in extratropical wintertime teleconnections on northern hemisphere temperature
journal, March 1996

  • Hurrell, James W.
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 23, Issue 6
  • DOI: 10.1029/96GL00459

The NCEP–NCAR 50–Year Reanalysis: Monthly Means CD–ROM and Documentation
journal, February 2001

Left-hand rule for synoptic eddy feedback on low-frequency flow
journal, January 2009

  • Kug, Jong-Seong; Jin, Fei-Fei
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 36, Issue 5
  • DOI: 10.1029/2008GL036435

A Review of Predictability Studies of Atlantic Sector Climate on Decadal Time Scales
journal, December 2006

  • Latif, M.; Collins, M.; Pohlmann, H.
  • Journal of Climate, Vol. 19, Issue 23
  • DOI: 10.1175/JCLI3945.1

Transient Eddy Forcing of the Time-Mean Flow as Identified by Geopotential Tendencies
journal, February 1984

Variability of the Baroclinic and Barotropic Transient Eddy Forcing Associated with Monthly Changes in the Midlatitude Storm Tracks
journal, December 1991

Dynamics of Interdecadal Climate Variability: A Historical Perspective
journal, March 2012

Atmospheric bridge, oceanic tunnel, and global climatic teleconnections
journal, January 2007

The early 1950s regime shift in temperature in Taiwan and East Asia
journal, September 2007

Change in the dominant decadal patterns and the late 1980s abrupt warming in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere
journal, July 2010

  • Lo, Tzu-Ting; Hsu, Huang-Hsiung
  • Atmospheric Science Letters, Vol. 11, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.1002/asl.275

Multiple-Century Response of a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model to an Increase of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
journal, January 1994

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation
journal, January 2002

  • Mantua, Nathan J.; Hare, Steven R.
  • Journal of Oceanography, Vol. 58, Issue 1, p. 35-44
  • DOI: 10.1023/A:1015820616384

A Pacific Interdecadal Climate Oscillation with Impacts on Salmon Production
journal, June 1997

A Shift in Western Tropical Pacific Sea Level Trends during the 1990s
journal, August 2011

A 50-70 year climatic oscillation over the North Pacific and North America
journal, March 1997

  • Minobe, Shoshiro
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 24, Issue 6
  • DOI: 10.1029/97GL00504

Large-Scale Aspects of Deep Convective Activity over the GATE Area
journal, August 1979

Decadal Variability of the Aleutian Low and Its Relation to High-Latitude Circulation*
journal, May 1999

How stationary is the relationship between Siberian snow and Arctic Oscillation over the 20th century?: SNOW-AO OVER THE 20TH CENTURY
journal, January 2013

  • Peings, Y.; Brun, E.; Mauvais, V.
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 40, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.1029/2012GL054083

Multi-year predictability in a coupled general circulation model
journal, December 2005

Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century
journal, January 2003

Application of a sequential regime shift detection method to the Bering Sea ecosystem
journal, January 2005

An oscillation in the global climate system of period 65–70 years
journal, February 1994

  • Schlesinger, Michael E.; Ramankutty, Navin
  • Nature, Vol. 367, Issue 6465
  • DOI: 10.1038/367723a0

Has the climate recently shifted?
journal, January 2009

  • Swanson, Kyle L.; Tsonis, Anastasios A.
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 36, Issue 6
  • DOI: 10.1029/2008GL037022

Long-term natural variability and 20th century climate change
journal, September 2009

  • Swanson, K. L.; Sugihara, G.; Tsonis, A. A.
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 106, Issue 38
  • DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0908699106

An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design
journal, April 2012

  • Taylor, Karl E.; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Meehl, Gerald A.
  • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 93, Issue 4
  • DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1

Northern Hemisphere circulation regimes: observed, simulated and predicted
journal, February 2007

Recent Observed Interdecadal Climate Changes in the Northern Hemisphere
journal, July 1990

Decadal atmosphere-ocean variations in the Pacific
journal, March 1994

  • Trenberth, Kevin E.; Hurrell, James W.
  • Climate Dynamics, Vol. 9, Issue 6
  • DOI: 10.1007/BF00204745

Progress during TOGA in understanding and modeling global teleconnections associated with tropical sea surface temperatures
journal, June 1998

  • Trenberth, Kevin E.; Branstator, Grant W.; Karoly, David
  • Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Vol. 103, Issue C7
  • DOI: 10.1029/97JC01444

Frequency- or amplitude-dependent effects of the Atlantic meridional overturning on the tropical Pacific Ocean
journal, January 2009

  • van Oldenborgh, G. J.; te Raa, L. A.; Dijkstra, H. A.
  • Ocean Science, Vol. 5, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.5194/os-5-293-2009

The Canadian Fourth Generation Atmospheric Global Climate Model (CanAM4). Part I: Representation of Physical Processes
journal, February 2013

Teleconnections in the Geopotential Height Field during the Northern Hemisphere Winter
journal, April 1981

Singular Value Decomposition of Wintertime Sea Surface Temperature and 500-mb Height Anomalies
journal, June 1992

Interdecadal Changes in El Niño Onset in the Last Four Decades
journal, February 1995

Observed Changes in Cyclone Activity in Canada and Their Relationships to Major Circulation Regimes
journal, March 2006

  • Wang, Xiaolan L.; Wan, H.; Swail, Val R.
  • Journal of Climate, Vol. 19, Issue 6
  • DOI: 10.1175/JCLI3664.1

ENSO-like Interdecadal Variability: 1900–93
journal, May 1997

    Sort by:
    [ × clear filter / sort ]

    Works referencing / citing this record:

    Climatic dipoles drive two principal modes of North American boreal bird irruption
    journal, May 2015

    • Strong, Courtenay; Zuckerberg, Benjamin; Betancourt, Julio L.
    • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 112, Issue 21
    • DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1418414112

    Coherent changes of wintertime surface air temperatures over North Asia and North America
    journal, March 2018

      Sort by:
      [ × clear filter / sort ]

      Figures / Tables found in this record:

      FIG. 1 (p. 4)figure
      FIG. 2 (p. 5)figure
      FIG. 3 (p. 6)figure
      TABLE 1 (p. 6)table
      FIG. 4 (p. 7)figure
      FIG. 5 (p. 8)figure
      TABLE 2 (p. 8)table
      FIG. 6 (p. 9)figure
      FIG. 7 (p. 11)figure
      FIG. 8 (p. 12)figure
      TABLE 3 (p. 12)table
      FIG. 9 (p. 13)figure
      FIG. 10 (p. 14)figure
      FIG. 11 (p. 15)figure
      FIG. 12 (p. 16)figure
        [ × clear filter / sort ]
        Figures/Tables have been extracted from DOE-funded journal article accepted manuscripts.

        Similar Records in DOE PAGES and OSTI.GOV collections: