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Title: Global Hydrological Cycle Response to Rapid and Slow Global Warming

Abstract

This study analyzes the response of global water vapor to global warming in a series of fully coupled climate model simulations. The authors find that a roughly 7% K-1 rate of increase of water vapor with global surface temperature is robust only for rapid anthropogenic-like climate change. For slower warming that occurred naturally in the past, the Southern Ocean has time to equilibrate, producing a different pattern of surface warming, so that water vapor increases at only 4.2% K-1. This lower rate of increase of water vapor with warming is not due to relative humidity changes or differences in mean lower-tropospheric temperature. A temperature of over 80°C would be required in the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship to match the 4.2% K-1 rate of increase. Instead, the low rate of increase is due to spatially heterogeneous warming. During slower global warming, there is enhanced warming at southern high latitudes, and hence less warming in the tropics per kelvin of global surface temperature increase. This leads to a smaller global water vapor increase, because most of the atmospheric water vapor is in the tropics. A formula is proposed that applies to general warming scenarios. This study also examines the response of global-mean precipitation andmore » the meridional profile of precipitation minus evaporation and compares the latter to thermodynamic scalings. It is found that global-mean precipitation changes are remarkably robust between rapid and slow warming. Thermodynamic scalings for the rapid- and slow-warming zonal-mean precipitation are similar, but the precipitation changes are significantly different, suggesting that circulation changes are important in driving these differences.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [2]
  1. Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States)
  2. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF); Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
OSTI Identifier:
1565236
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Journal of Climate
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 26; Journal Issue: 22; Journal ID: ISSN 0894-8755
Publisher:
American Meteorological Society
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences; Anthropogenic effects; Humidity; Paleoclimate; Water vapor

Citation Formats

Back, Larissa, Russ, Karen, Liu, Zhengyu, Inoue, Kuniaki, Zhang, Jiaxu, and Otto-Bliesner, Bette. Global Hydrological Cycle Response to Rapid and Slow Global Warming. United States: N. p., 2013. Web. doi:10.1175/jcli-d-13-00118.1.
Back, Larissa, Russ, Karen, Liu, Zhengyu, Inoue, Kuniaki, Zhang, Jiaxu, & Otto-Bliesner, Bette. Global Hydrological Cycle Response to Rapid and Slow Global Warming. United States. doi:10.1175/jcli-d-13-00118.1.
Back, Larissa, Russ, Karen, Liu, Zhengyu, Inoue, Kuniaki, Zhang, Jiaxu, and Otto-Bliesner, Bette. Tue . "Global Hydrological Cycle Response to Rapid and Slow Global Warming". United States. doi:10.1175/jcli-d-13-00118.1. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1565236.
@article{osti_1565236,
title = {Global Hydrological Cycle Response to Rapid and Slow Global Warming},
author = {Back, Larissa and Russ, Karen and Liu, Zhengyu and Inoue, Kuniaki and Zhang, Jiaxu and Otto-Bliesner, Bette},
abstractNote = {This study analyzes the response of global water vapor to global warming in a series of fully coupled climate model simulations. The authors find that a roughly 7% K-1 rate of increase of water vapor with global surface temperature is robust only for rapid anthropogenic-like climate change. For slower warming that occurred naturally in the past, the Southern Ocean has time to equilibrate, producing a different pattern of surface warming, so that water vapor increases at only 4.2% K-1. This lower rate of increase of water vapor with warming is not due to relative humidity changes or differences in mean lower-tropospheric temperature. A temperature of over 80°C would be required in the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship to match the 4.2% K-1 rate of increase. Instead, the low rate of increase is due to spatially heterogeneous warming. During slower global warming, there is enhanced warming at southern high latitudes, and hence less warming in the tropics per kelvin of global surface temperature increase. This leads to a smaller global water vapor increase, because most of the atmospheric water vapor is in the tropics. A formula is proposed that applies to general warming scenarios. This study also examines the response of global-mean precipitation and the meridional profile of precipitation minus evaporation and compares the latter to thermodynamic scalings. It is found that global-mean precipitation changes are remarkably robust between rapid and slow warming. Thermodynamic scalings for the rapid- and slow-warming zonal-mean precipitation are similar, but the precipitation changes are significantly different, suggesting that circulation changes are important in driving these differences.},
doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-13-00118.1},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = 22,
volume = 26,
place = {United States},
year = {2013},
month = {10}
}

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Free Publicly Available Full Text
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Cited by: 10 works
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Figures / Tables:

FIG. 1 FIG. 1: Dependence of global-mean, column-integrated water vapor on surface temperature for slowly warming paleoclimate simulation (black-dashed line) and rapid, anthropogenic-type warming simulations (black and red solid lines). Each dot represents one decade and the colors of the dots indicate the time periods (labeled) in the paleoclimate simulation (1C° =more » 1K).« less

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Works referencing / citing this record:

The East Asian Monsoon since the Last Glacial Maximum: Evidence from geological records in northern China
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The East Asian Monsoon since the Last Glacial Maximum: Evidence from geological records in northern China
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The transient response of atmospheric and oceanic heat transports to anthropogenic warming
journal, January 2019


Changes in Water Level Regimes in China’s Two Largest Freshwater Lakes: Characterization and Implication
journal, May 2019

  • Cheng, Junxiang; Xu, Ligang; Feng, Wenjuan
  • Water, Vol. 11, Issue 5
  • DOI: 10.3390/w11050917

    Figures/Tables have been extracted from DOE-funded journal article accepted manuscripts.