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Title: Climate Changes of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Formation Derived from Twentieth-Century Reanalysis

Abstract

Whereas some studies linked the enhanced tropical cyclone (TC) formation in the North Atlantic basin to the ongoing global warming, other studies attributed it to the warm phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). Using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) dataset, the present study reveals the distinctive spatial patterns associated with the influences of the AMO and global warming on TC formation in the North Atlantic basin. Two leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) patterns are identified in the climate change of TC formation on time scales longer than interannual. The first pattern is associated with the AMO and its spatial pattern shows the basin-scale enhancement of TC formation during the AMO positive phase. The second pattern is associated with global warming, showing enhanced TC formation in the east tropical Atlantic (5°–20°N, 15°–40°W) and reduced TC formation from the southeast coast of the United States extending southward to the Caribbean Sea. In the warm AMO phase, the basinwide decrease in vertical wind shear and increases in midlevel relative humidity and maximum potential intensity (MPI) favor the basinwide enhancement of TC formation. Global warming suppresses TC formation from the southeast coastmore » of the United States extending southward to the Caribbean Sea through enhancing vertical wind shear and reducing midlevel relative humidity and MPI. The enhanced TC formation in the east tropical Atlantic is due mainly to a local increase in MPI or sea surface temperature (SST), leading to a close relationship between the Atlantic SST and TC activity over the past decades.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [1]
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  1. Nanjing Univ. of Information Science and Technology (China). Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF); Nanjing Univ. of Information Science and Technology (China)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
OSTI Identifier:
1565235
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Journal of Climate
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 26; Journal Issue: 22; Journal ID: ISSN 0894-8755
Publisher:
American Meteorological Society
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences; Tropical cyclones; Climate change

Citation Formats

Wang, Ruifang, and Wu, Liguang. Climate Changes of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Formation Derived from Twentieth-Century Reanalysis. United States: N. p., 2013. Web. doi:10.1175/jcli-d-13-00056.1.
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Wang, Ruifang, & Wu, Liguang. Climate Changes of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Formation Derived from Twentieth-Century Reanalysis. United States. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-13-00056.1
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Wang, Ruifang, and Wu, Liguang. Tue . "Climate Changes of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Formation Derived from Twentieth-Century Reanalysis". United States. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-13-00056.1. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1565235.
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@article{osti_1565235,
title = {Climate Changes of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Formation Derived from Twentieth-Century Reanalysis},
author = {Wang, Ruifang and Wu, Liguang},
abstractNote = {Whereas some studies linked the enhanced tropical cyclone (TC) formation in the North Atlantic basin to the ongoing global warming, other studies attributed it to the warm phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). Using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) dataset, the present study reveals the distinctive spatial patterns associated with the influences of the AMO and global warming on TC formation in the North Atlantic basin. Two leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) patterns are identified in the climate change of TC formation on time scales longer than interannual. The first pattern is associated with the AMO and its spatial pattern shows the basin-scale enhancement of TC formation during the AMO positive phase. The second pattern is associated with global warming, showing enhanced TC formation in the east tropical Atlantic (5°–20°N, 15°–40°W) and reduced TC formation from the southeast coast of the United States extending southward to the Caribbean Sea. In the warm AMO phase, the basinwide decrease in vertical wind shear and increases in midlevel relative humidity and maximum potential intensity (MPI) favor the basinwide enhancement of TC formation. Global warming suppresses TC formation from the southeast coast of the United States extending southward to the Caribbean Sea through enhancing vertical wind shear and reducing midlevel relative humidity and MPI. The enhanced TC formation in the east tropical Atlantic is due mainly to a local increase in MPI or sea surface temperature (SST), leading to a close relationship between the Atlantic SST and TC activity over the past decades.},
doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-13-00056.1},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = 22,
volume = 26,
place = {United States},
year = {Tue Oct 29 00:00:00 EDT 2013},
month = {Tue Oct 29 00:00:00 EDT 2013}
}
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Journal Article:
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Publisher's Version of Record
https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-13-00056.1
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Cited by: 8 works
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Figures / Tables:

FIG. 1 FIG. 1: (a) August–October mean spatial distribution of tropical cyclone formation frequency and the GPI derived from (b) the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR), (c) NCEP–NCAR, (d) MERRA, (e) ERA-Interim, (f) JRA-25, and (g) ERA-40 over the period 1979–2010 except for the ERA-40 dataset (1979–2001). The unit of tropical cyclone formationmore » frequency is yr-1. Note that the color scales are different in different panels.« less
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    journal, October 2015

    • Reyer, Christopher P. O.; Adams, Sophie; Albrecht, Torsten
    • Regional Environmental Change, Vol. 17, Issue 6
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    Impact of Anthropogenic Climate Change on United States Major Hurricane Landfall Frequency
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    • Levin, Emma L.; Murakami, Hiroyuki
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