Greenland Surface Mass Balance as Simulated by the Community Earth System Model. Part II: Twenty-First-Century Changes
Abstract
This study presents the first twenty-first-century projections of surface mass balance (SMB) changes for the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) with the Community Earth System Model (CESM), which includes a new ice sheet component. For glaciated surfaces, CESM includes a sophisticated calculation of energy fluxes, surface albedo, and snowpack hydrology (melt, percolation, refreezing, etc.). To efficiently resolve the high SMB gradients at the ice sheet margins and provide surface forcing at the scale needed by ice sheet models, the SMB is calculated at multiple elevations and interpolated to a finer 5-km ice sheet grid. During a twenty-first-century simulation driven by representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) forcing, the SMB decreases from 372 ± 100 Gt yr-1 in 1980–99 to -78 ± 143 Gt yr-1 in 2080–99. The 2080–99 near-surface temperatures over the GIS increase by 4.7 K (annual mean) with respect to 1980–99, only 1.3 times the global increase (+3.7 K). Snowfall increases by 18%, while surface melt doubles. The ablation area increases from 9% of the GIS in 1980–99 to 28% in 2080–99. Over the ablation areas, summer downward longwave radiation and turbulent fluxes increase, while incoming shortwave radiation decreases owing to increased cloud cover. The reduction in GIS-averaged July albedomore »
- Authors:
-
- Utrecht Univ., Utrecht (Netherlands). Inst. for Marine and Atmospheric Research; Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States). Dept. of Geography
- Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
- National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
- Utrecht Univ., Utrecht (Netherlands). Inst. for Marine and Atmospheric Research
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF); UT-Battelle LLC/ORNL, Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1565232
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC05-00OR22725; AC52-06NA25396
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Climate
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 27; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 0894-8755
- Publisher:
- American Meteorological Society
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences; ice sheets; Sea level; Climate prediction; Climate models; Atmosphere-land interaction
Citation Formats
Vizcaíno, Miren, Lipscomb, William H., Sacks, William J., and van den Broeke, Michiel. Greenland Surface Mass Balance as Simulated by the Community Earth System Model. Part II: Twenty-First-Century Changes. United States: N. p., 2014.
Web. doi:10.1175/jcli-d-12-00588.1.
Vizcaíno, Miren, Lipscomb, William H., Sacks, William J., & van den Broeke, Michiel. Greenland Surface Mass Balance as Simulated by the Community Earth System Model. Part II: Twenty-First-Century Changes. United States. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00588.1
Vizcaíno, Miren, Lipscomb, William H., Sacks, William J., and van den Broeke, Michiel. Mon .
"Greenland Surface Mass Balance as Simulated by the Community Earth System Model. Part II: Twenty-First-Century Changes". United States. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00588.1. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1565232.
@article{osti_1565232,
title = {Greenland Surface Mass Balance as Simulated by the Community Earth System Model. Part II: Twenty-First-Century Changes},
author = {Vizcaíno, Miren and Lipscomb, William H. and Sacks, William J. and van den Broeke, Michiel},
abstractNote = {This study presents the first twenty-first-century projections of surface mass balance (SMB) changes for the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) with the Community Earth System Model (CESM), which includes a new ice sheet component. For glaciated surfaces, CESM includes a sophisticated calculation of energy fluxes, surface albedo, and snowpack hydrology (melt, percolation, refreezing, etc.). To efficiently resolve the high SMB gradients at the ice sheet margins and provide surface forcing at the scale needed by ice sheet models, the SMB is calculated at multiple elevations and interpolated to a finer 5-km ice sheet grid. During a twenty-first-century simulation driven by representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) forcing, the SMB decreases from 372 ± 100 Gt yr-1 in 1980–99 to -78 ± 143 Gt yr-1 in 2080–99. The 2080–99 near-surface temperatures over the GIS increase by 4.7 K (annual mean) with respect to 1980–99, only 1.3 times the global increase (+3.7 K). Snowfall increases by 18%, while surface melt doubles. The ablation area increases from 9% of the GIS in 1980–99 to 28% in 2080–99. Over the ablation areas, summer downward longwave radiation and turbulent fluxes increase, while incoming shortwave radiation decreases owing to increased cloud cover. The reduction in GIS-averaged July albedo from 0.78 in 1980–99 to 0.75 in 2080–99 increases the absorbed solar radiation in this month by 12%. Summer warming is strongest in the north and east of Greenland owing to reduced sea ice cover. In the ablation area, summer temperature increases are smaller due to frequent periods of surface melt.},
doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-12-00588.1},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = 1,
volume = 27,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Jan 06 00:00:00 EST 2014},
month = {Mon Jan 06 00:00:00 EST 2014}
}
Web of Science
Figures / Tables:
Works referenced in this record:
A new ice thickness and bed data set for the Greenland ice sheet: 1. Measurement, data reduction, and errors
journal, December 2001
- Bamber, J. L.; Layberry, R. L.; Gogineni, S. P.
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 106, Issue D24
Impact of model physics on estimating the surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet
journal, January 2007
- Bougamont, Marion; Bamber, Jonathan L.; Ridley, Jeff K.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 34, Issue 17
Greenland ice sheet albedo feedback: thermodynamics and atmospheric drivers
journal, January 2012
- Box, J. E.; Fettweis, X.; Stroeve, J. C.
- The Cryosphere, Vol. 6, Issue 4
Estimation of the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance for the 20th and 21st centuries
journal, January 2008
- Fettweis, X.; Hanna, E.; Gallée, H.
- The Cryosphere, Vol. 2, Issue 2
Estimating the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance contribution to future sea level rise using the regional atmospheric climate model MAR
journal, January 2013
- Fettweis, X.; Franco, B.; Tedesco, M.
- The Cryosphere, Vol. 7, Issue 2
Ice-sheet contributions to future sea-level change
journal, May 2006
- Gregory, J. M.; Huybrechts, P.
- Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 364, Issue 1844
Melting of ice shelves and the mass balance of Antarctica
journal, January 1992
- Jacobs, S. S.; Helmer, H. H.; Doake, C. S. M.
- Journal of Glaciology, Vol. 38, Issue 130
A new, high-resolution surface mass balance map of Antarctica (1979-2010) based on regional atmospheric climate modeling: SMB ANTARCTICA
journal, February 2012
- Lenaerts, J. T. M.; van den Broeke, M. R.; van de Berg, W. J.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 39, Issue 4
Implementation and Initial Evaluation of the Glimmer Community Ice Sheet Model in the Community Earth System Model
journal, October 2013
- Lipscomb, William H.; Fyke, Jeremy G.; Vizcaíno, Miren
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 19
Long-term effects of anthropogenic CO2 emissions simulated with a complex earth system model
journal, December 2006
- Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Gröger, Matthias; Maier-Reimer, Ernst
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 28, Issue 6
Greenland surface melt trends 1973–2007: Evidence of a large increase in 2007
journal, January 2007
- Mote, Thomas L.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 34, Issue 22
A Possible Change in Mass Balance of Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets in the Coming Century
journal, September 1996
- Ohmura, Atsumu; Wild, Martin; Bengtsson, Lennart
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 9, Issue 9
Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance: evaluating simulations and making projections with regional climate models
journal, January 2012
- Rae, J. G. L.; Aðalgeirsdóttir, G.; Edwards, T. L.
- The Cryosphere, Vol. 6, Issue 6
Elimination of the Greenland Ice Sheet in a High CO 2 Climate
journal, September 2005
- Ridley, J. K.; Huybrechts, P.; Gregory, J. M.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 18, Issue 17
Acceleration of the contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to sea level rise: ACCELERATION OF ICE SHEET LOSS
journal, March 2011
- Rignot, E.; Velicogna, I.; van den Broeke, M. R.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 38, Issue 5
Multistability and critical thresholds of the Greenland ice sheet
journal, March 2012
- Robinson, Alexander; Calov, Reinhard; Ganopolski, Andrey
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 2, Issue 6
A Reconciled Estimate of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance
journal, November 2012
- Shepherd, A.; Ivins, E. R.; A., G.
- Science, Vol. 338, Issue 6111
Contribution of giant icebergs to the Southern Ocean freshwater flux
journal, January 2006
- Silva, T. A. M.; Bigg, G. R.; Nicholls, K. W.
- Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 111, Issue C3
Snowmelt detection over the Greenland ice sheet from SSM/I brightness temperature daily variations
journal, January 2007
- Tedesco, Marco
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 34, Issue 2
The role of albedo and accumulation in the 2010 melting record in Greenland
journal, January 2011
- Tedesco, M.; Fettweis, X.; van den Broeke, M. R.
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 6, Issue 1
Rapid loss of firn pore space accelerates 21st century Greenland mass loss: 21ST CENTURY GREENLAND SMB
journal, May 2013
- van Angelen, J. H.; M. Lenaerts, J. T.; van den Broeke, M. R.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 40, Issue 10
Partitioning of melt energy and meltwater fluxes in the ablation zone of the west Greenland ice sheet
journal, January 2008
- van den Broeke, M.; Smeets, P.; Ettema, J.
- The Cryosphere, Vol. 2, Issue 2
Surface radiation balance in the ablation zone of the west Greenland ice sheet
journal, January 2008
- van den Broeke, Michiel; Smeets, Paul; Ettema, Janneke
- Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 113, Issue D13
Partitioning Recent Greenland Mass Loss
journal, November 2009
- van den Broeke, M.; Bamber, J.; Ettema, J.
- Science, Vol. 326, Issue 5955
Long-term ice sheet–climate interactions under anthropogenic greenhouse forcing simulated with a complex Earth System Model
journal, January 2008
- Vizcaíno, Miren; Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Gröger, Matthias
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 31, Issue 6
Climate modification by future ice sheet changes and consequences for ice sheet mass balance
journal, June 2009
- Vizcaíno, M.; Mikolajewicz, U.; Jungclaus, J.
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 34, Issue 2-3
Greenland Surface Mass Balance as Simulated by the Community Earth System Model. Part I: Model Evaluation and 1850–2005 Results
journal, October 2013
- Vizcaíno, Miren; Lipscomb, William H.; Sacks, William J.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 20
An explanation for the dark region in the western melt zone of the Greenland ice sheet
journal, January 2010
- Wientjes, I. G. M.; Oerlemans, J.
- The Cryosphere, Vol. 4, Issue 3
Change in mass balance of polar ice sheets and sea level from high-resolution GCM simulations of greenhouse warming
journal, January 2000
- Wild, Martin; Ohmura, Atsumu
- Annals of Glaciology, Vol. 30
Contribution of glacier melt to sea-level rise since AD 1865: a regionally differentiated calculation
journal, December 1997
- Zuo, Z.; Oerlemans, J.
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 13, Issue 12
Climate modification by future ice sheet changes and consequences for ice sheet mass balance
journal, June 2009
- Vizcaíno, M.; Mikolajewicz, U.; Jungclaus, J.
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 34, Issue 2-3
Health Care System in the 21st Century and the Role of the Anesthesiologist. Part II. Current Status in the US and the Future of Japan.
journal, January 2000
- Ohmura, Akito
- THE JOURNAL OF JAPAN SOCIETY FOR CLINICAL ANESTHESIA, Vol. 20, Issue 5
Estimation of the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance for the 20th and 21st centuries
journal, January 2008
- Fettweis, X.; Hanna, E.; Gallée, H.
- The Cryosphere, Vol. 2, Issue 2
An explanation for the dark region in the western melt zone of the Greenland ice sheet
journal, January 2010
- Wientjes, I. G. M.; Oerlemans, J.
- The Cryosphere, Vol. 4, Issue 3
Sensitivity of Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance to surface albedo parameterization: a study with a regional climate model
journal, January 2012
- van Angelen, J. H.; Lenaerts, J. T. M.; Lhermitte, S.
- The Cryosphere, Vol. 6, Issue 5
Works referencing / citing this record:
Clouds enhance Greenland ice sheet meltwater runoff
journal, January 2016
- Van Tricht, K.; Lhermitte, S.; Lenaerts, J. T. M.
- Nature Communications, Vol. 7, Issue 1
Development and testing of a subgrid glacier mass balance model for nesting in the Canadian Regional Climate Model
journal, February 2019
- Perroud, Marjorie; Fasel, Marc; Marshall, Shawn J.
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 53, Issue 3-4
Greenland Ice Sheet surface melt amplified by snowline migration and bare ice exposure
journal, March 2019
- Ryan, J. C.; Smith, L. C.; van As, D.
- Science Advances, Vol. 5, Issue 3
Surface mass balance downscaling through elevation classes in an Earth system model: application to the Greenland ice sheet
journal, January 2019
- Sellevold, Raymond; van Kampenhout, Leonardus; Lenaerts, Jan T. M.
- The Cryosphere, Vol. 13, Issue 12
Efficient meltwater drainage through supraglacial streams and rivers on the southwest Greenland ice sheet
journal, January 2015
- Smith, Laurence C.; Chu, Vena W.; Yang, Kang
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 112, Issue 4
Future climate warming increases Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance variability
journal, January 2014
- Fyke, Jeremy G.; Vizcaíno, Miren; Lipscomb, William
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 41, Issue 2
Clouds enhance Greenland ice sheet meltwater runoff
journal, January 2016
- Van Tricht, K.; Lhermitte, S.; Lenaerts, J. T. M.
- Nature Communications, Vol. 7, Issue 1
Greenland Ice Sheet surface melt amplified by snowline migration and bare ice exposure
journal, March 2019
- Ryan, J. C.; Smith, L. C.; van As, D.
- Science Advances, Vol. 5, Issue 3
Arctic climate change and decadal variability
dissertation, December 2016
- van der Linden12/21/2016, Eveline C.
- Meteorology and Air Quality
Seasonal Changes in Fe along a Glaciated Greenlandic Fjord
journal, March 2016
- Hopwood, Mark J.; Connelly, Douglas P.; Arendt, Kristine E.
- Frontiers in Earth Science, Vol. 4
Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) contribution to CMIP6
journal, January 2016
- Nowicki, Sophie M. J.; Payne, Anthony; Larour, Eric
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 12
Surface energy budget responses to radiative forcing at Summit, Greenland
journal, January 2017
- Miller, Nathaniel B.; Shupe, Matthew D.; Cox, Christopher J.
- The Cryosphere, Vol. 11, Issue 1
Surface mass balance downscaling through elevation classes in an Earth system model: application to the Greenland ice sheet
journal, January 2019
- Sellevold, Raymond; van Kampenhout, Leonardus; Lenaerts, Jan T. M.
- The Cryosphere, Vol. 13, Issue 12
Large and irreversible future decline of the Greenland ice sheet
journal, January 2020
- Gregory, Jonathan M.; George, Steven E.; Smith, Robin S.
- The Cryosphere, Vol. 14, Issue 12