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Title: A Sensitivity Analysis of Surface Biophysical, Carbon, and Climate Impacts of Tropical Deforestation Rates in CCSM4-CNDV*

Abstract

The biophysical–climate and combined biophysical and carbon–climate feedbacks of tropical deforestation rates are explored through sensitivity analyses using the Community Climate System Model 4 with prognostic carbon–nitrogen and dynamic vegetation. Simulations test 5%, 2%, 1%, and 0.5% annual deforestation rates, each paired with preservation targets of 10% per tropical tree type. Perturbations are applied over pan-tropical land but analyses also explore responses over the subcontinental areas of the Amazon basin, central Africa, and Southeast Asia. Sensitivities [expressed as the change in a variable per million square kilometers (Mkm 2) of change in tree cover] and means of selected biophysical, carbon, and climate variables during and after deforestation are compared across rates. The most apparent effect of the rates is in hastening/postponing climate change, but otherwise results show no consistent differences across rates and vary more across subcontinents (with the Amazon basin reflecting highest sensitivities in albedo and ground temperatures, and Southeast Asia for total ecosystem carbon). Furthermore, biophysical feedbacks alone were found to have significant impact on climate over subcontinental scales. In the Amazon, ground temperature increase due to biophysical feedbacks is as much as 55%, and precipitation decrease up to 61%, of combined biophysical and carbon impacts. Replication withmore » other models is required. While it is still unclear whether a slow but prolonged deforestation differs in impacts from one that is rapid but short, the rate can still be relevant to planning with regards to the timing of impacts.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [2]
  1. Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States); Ateneo de Manila Univ., Quezon City (Phillipines)
  2. Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States); Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
OSTI Identifier:
1565084
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-00OR22725
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Journal of Climate
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 26; Journal Issue: 3; Journal ID: ISSN 0894-8755
Publisher:
American Meteorological Society
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Climate models; Land surface model; Biosphere-atmosphere interaction; Deforestation; Regional effects; Vegetation-atmosphere interactions

Citation Formats

Gotangco Castillo, C. Kendra, and Gurney, Kevin Robert. A Sensitivity Analysis of Surface Biophysical, Carbon, and Climate Impacts of Tropical Deforestation Rates in CCSM4-CNDV*. United States: N. p., 2013. Web. doi:10.1175/jcli-d-11-00382.1.
Gotangco Castillo, C. Kendra, & Gurney, Kevin Robert. A Sensitivity Analysis of Surface Biophysical, Carbon, and Climate Impacts of Tropical Deforestation Rates in CCSM4-CNDV*. United States. doi:10.1175/jcli-d-11-00382.1.
Gotangco Castillo, C. Kendra, and Gurney, Kevin Robert. Wed . "A Sensitivity Analysis of Surface Biophysical, Carbon, and Climate Impacts of Tropical Deforestation Rates in CCSM4-CNDV*". United States. doi:10.1175/jcli-d-11-00382.1. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1565084.
@article{osti_1565084,
title = {A Sensitivity Analysis of Surface Biophysical, Carbon, and Climate Impacts of Tropical Deforestation Rates in CCSM4-CNDV*},
author = {Gotangco Castillo, C. Kendra and Gurney, Kevin Robert},
abstractNote = {The biophysical–climate and combined biophysical and carbon–climate feedbacks of tropical deforestation rates are explored through sensitivity analyses using the Community Climate System Model 4 with prognostic carbon–nitrogen and dynamic vegetation. Simulations test 5%, 2%, 1%, and 0.5% annual deforestation rates, each paired with preservation targets of 10% per tropical tree type. Perturbations are applied over pan-tropical land but analyses also explore responses over the subcontinental areas of the Amazon basin, central Africa, and Southeast Asia. Sensitivities [expressed as the change in a variable per million square kilometers (Mkm2) of change in tree cover] and means of selected biophysical, carbon, and climate variables during and after deforestation are compared across rates. The most apparent effect of the rates is in hastening/postponing climate change, but otherwise results show no consistent differences across rates and vary more across subcontinents (with the Amazon basin reflecting highest sensitivities in albedo and ground temperatures, and Southeast Asia for total ecosystem carbon). Furthermore, biophysical feedbacks alone were found to have significant impact on climate over subcontinental scales. In the Amazon, ground temperature increase due to biophysical feedbacks is as much as 55%, and precipitation decrease up to 61%, of combined biophysical and carbon impacts. Replication with other models is required. While it is still unclear whether a slow but prolonged deforestation differs in impacts from one that is rapid but short, the rate can still be relevant to planning with regards to the timing of impacts.},
doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-11-00382.1},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = 3,
volume = 26,
place = {United States},
year = {2013},
month = {2}
}

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Cited by: 11 works
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