Will There Be a Significant Change to El Niño in the Twenty-First Century?
Abstract
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response to anthropogenic climate change is assessed in the following 1° nominal resolution Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations: twentieth-century ensemble, preindustrial control, twenty-first-century projections, and stabilized 2100–2300 “extension runs.” ENSO variability weakens slightly with CO2; however, various significance tests reveal that changes are insignificant at all but the highest CO2levels. Comparison with the 1850 control simulation suggests that ENSO changes may become significant on centennial time scales; the lack of signal in the twentieth- versus twenty-first-century ensembles is due to their limited duration. Changes to the mean state are consistent with previous studies: a weakening of the subtropical wind stress curl, an eastward shift of the tropical convective cells, a reduction in the zonal SST gradient, and an increase in vertical thermal stratification take place as CO2increases. The extratropical thermocline deepens throughout the twenty-first century, with the tropical thermocline changing slowly in response. The adjustment time scale is set by the relevant ocean dynamics, and the delay in its effect on ENSO variability is not diminished by increasing ensemble size. The CCSM4 results imply that twenty-first-century simulations may simply be too short for identification ofmore »
- Authors:
-
- Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)
- National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF); Univ. of California, Oakland, CA (United States); UT-Battelle LLC/ORNL, Oak Ridge, TN (United States); University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1564913
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC02-05CH11231; AC05-00OR22725; FC02-97ER62402
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Climate
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 25; Journal Issue: 6; Journal ID: ISSN 0894-8755
- Publisher:
- American Meteorological Society
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences; ENSO; general circulation models; model evaluation/performance; tropical variability
Citation Formats
Stevenson, Samantha, Fox-Kemper, Baylor, Jochum, Markus, Neale, Richard, Deser, Clara, and Meehl, Gerald. Will There Be a Significant Change to El Niño in the Twenty-First Century?. United States: N. p., 2012.
Web. doi:10.1175/jcli-d-11-00252.1.
Stevenson, Samantha, Fox-Kemper, Baylor, Jochum, Markus, Neale, Richard, Deser, Clara, & Meehl, Gerald. Will There Be a Significant Change to El Niño in the Twenty-First Century?. United States. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-11-00252.1
Stevenson, Samantha, Fox-Kemper, Baylor, Jochum, Markus, Neale, Richard, Deser, Clara, and Meehl, Gerald. Thu .
"Will There Be a Significant Change to El Niño in the Twenty-First Century?". United States. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-11-00252.1. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1564913.
@article{osti_1564913,
title = {Will There Be a Significant Change to El Niño in the Twenty-First Century?},
author = {Stevenson, Samantha and Fox-Kemper, Baylor and Jochum, Markus and Neale, Richard and Deser, Clara and Meehl, Gerald},
abstractNote = {The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response to anthropogenic climate change is assessed in the following 1° nominal resolution Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations: twentieth-century ensemble, preindustrial control, twenty-first-century projections, and stabilized 2100–2300 “extension runs.” ENSO variability weakens slightly with CO2; however, various significance tests reveal that changes are insignificant at all but the highest CO2levels. Comparison with the 1850 control simulation suggests that ENSO changes may become significant on centennial time scales; the lack of signal in the twentieth- versus twenty-first-century ensembles is due to their limited duration. Changes to the mean state are consistent with previous studies: a weakening of the subtropical wind stress curl, an eastward shift of the tropical convective cells, a reduction in the zonal SST gradient, and an increase in vertical thermal stratification take place as CO2increases. The extratropical thermocline deepens throughout the twenty-first century, with the tropical thermocline changing slowly in response. The adjustment time scale is set by the relevant ocean dynamics, and the delay in its effect on ENSO variability is not diminished by increasing ensemble size. The CCSM4 results imply that twenty-first-century simulations may simply be too short for identification of significant tropical variability response to climate change. An examination of atmospheric teleconnections, in contrast, shows that the remote influences of ENSO do respond rapidly to climate change in some regions, particularly during boreal winter. Finally, this suggests that changes to ENSO impacts may take place well before changes to oceanic tropical variability itself become significant.},
doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-11-00252.1},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = 6,
volume = 25,
place = {United States},
year = {Thu Mar 15 00:00:00 EDT 2012},
month = {Thu Mar 15 00:00:00 EDT 2012}
}
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