Climate System Response to External Forcings and Climate Change Projections in CCSM4
Abstract
Results are presented from experiments performed with the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). These include multiple ensemble members of twentieth-century climate with anthropogenic and natural forcings as well as single-forcing runs, sensitivity experiments with sulfate aerosol forcing, twenty-first-century representative concentration pathway (RCP) mitigation scenarios, and extensions for those scenarios beyond 2100–2300. Equilibrium climate sensitivity of CCSM4 is 3.20°C, and the transient climate response is 1.73°C. Global surface temperatures averaged for the last 20 years of the twenty-first century compared to the 1986–2005 reference period for six-member ensembles from CCSM4 are +0.85°, +1.64°, +2.09°, and +3.53°C for RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5, respectively. The ocean meridional overturning circulation (MOC) in the Atlantic, which weakens during the twentieth century in the model, nearly recovers to early twentieth-century values in RCP2.6, partially recovers in RCP4.5 and RCP6, and does not recover by 2100 in RCP8.5. Heat wave intensity is projected to increase almost everywhere in CCSM4 in a future warmer climate, with the magnitude of the increase proportional to the forcing. Precipitation intensity is also projected to increase, with dry days increasing in most subtropical areas. For future climate, there is almostmore »
- Authors:
-
- National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
- National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Dept. of the Environment, Melbourne, VIC (Australia). Bureau of Metereology
- Climate Central, Princeton, NJ (Unites States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF); Univ. of California, Oakland, CA (United States); UT-Battelle LLC/ORNL, Oak Ridge, TN (United States); University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1564912
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC02-05CH11231; AC05-00OR22725; FC02-97ER62402
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Climate
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 25; Journal Issue: 11; Journal ID: ISSN 0894-8755
- Publisher:
- American Meteorological Society
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Citation Formats
Meehl, Gerald A., Washington, Warren M., Arblaster, Julie M., Hu, Aixue, Teng, Haiyan, Tebaldi, Claudia, Sanderson, Benjamin N., Lamarque, Jean-Francois, Conley, Andrew, Strand, Warren G., and White, James B. Climate System Response to External Forcings and Climate Change Projections in CCSM4. United States: N. p., 2012.
Web. doi:10.1175/jcli-d-11-00240.1.
Meehl, Gerald A., Washington, Warren M., Arblaster, Julie M., Hu, Aixue, Teng, Haiyan, Tebaldi, Claudia, Sanderson, Benjamin N., Lamarque, Jean-Francois, Conley, Andrew, Strand, Warren G., & White, James B. Climate System Response to External Forcings and Climate Change Projections in CCSM4. United States. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-11-00240.1
Meehl, Gerald A., Washington, Warren M., Arblaster, Julie M., Hu, Aixue, Teng, Haiyan, Tebaldi, Claudia, Sanderson, Benjamin N., Lamarque, Jean-Francois, Conley, Andrew, Strand, Warren G., and White, James B. Fri .
"Climate System Response to External Forcings and Climate Change Projections in CCSM4". United States. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-11-00240.1. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1564912.
@article{osti_1564912,
title = {Climate System Response to External Forcings and Climate Change Projections in CCSM4},
author = {Meehl, Gerald A. and Washington, Warren M. and Arblaster, Julie M. and Hu, Aixue and Teng, Haiyan and Tebaldi, Claudia and Sanderson, Benjamin N. and Lamarque, Jean-Francois and Conley, Andrew and Strand, Warren G. and White, James B.},
abstractNote = {Results are presented from experiments performed with the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). These include multiple ensemble members of twentieth-century climate with anthropogenic and natural forcings as well as single-forcing runs, sensitivity experiments with sulfate aerosol forcing, twenty-first-century representative concentration pathway (RCP) mitigation scenarios, and extensions for those scenarios beyond 2100–2300. Equilibrium climate sensitivity of CCSM4 is 3.20°C, and the transient climate response is 1.73°C. Global surface temperatures averaged for the last 20 years of the twenty-first century compared to the 1986–2005 reference period for six-member ensembles from CCSM4 are +0.85°, +1.64°, +2.09°, and +3.53°C for RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5, respectively. The ocean meridional overturning circulation (MOC) in the Atlantic, which weakens during the twentieth century in the model, nearly recovers to early twentieth-century values in RCP2.6, partially recovers in RCP4.5 and RCP6, and does not recover by 2100 in RCP8.5. Heat wave intensity is projected to increase almost everywhere in CCSM4 in a future warmer climate, with the magnitude of the increase proportional to the forcing. Precipitation intensity is also projected to increase, with dry days increasing in most subtropical areas. For future climate, there is almost no summer sea ice left in the Arctic in the high RCP8.5 scenario by 2100, but in the low RCP2.6 scenario there is substantial sea ice remaining in summer at the end of the century.},
doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-11-00240.1},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = 11,
volume = 25,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri Jun 01 00:00:00 EDT 2012},
month = {Fri Jun 01 00:00:00 EDT 2012}
}
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