skip to main content
DOE PAGES title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: The Response of Tropical Cyclone Statistics to an Increase in CO2 with Fixed Sea Surface Temperatures

Abstract

The effects on tropical cyclone statistics of doubling CO2, with fixed sea surface temperatures (SSTs), are compared to the effects of a 2-K increase in SST, with fixed CO2, using a 50-km resolution global atmospheric model. Confirming earlier results of Yoshimura and Sugi, a significant fraction of the reduction in globally averaged tropical storm frequency seen in simulations in which both SST and CO2 are increased can be thought of as the effect of the CO2 increase with fixed SSTs. Globally, the model produces a decrease in tropical cyclone frequency of about 10% due to doubling of CO2 and an additional 10% for a 2-K increase in SST, resulting in roughly a 20% reduction when both effects are present. The relative contribution of the CO2 effect to the total reduction is larger in the Northern than in the Southern Hemisphere. The average intensity of storms increases in the model with increasing SST, but intensity remains roughly unchanged, or decreases slightly, with the increase in CO2 alone. As a result, when considering the frequency of more intense cyclones, the intensity increase tends to compensate for the reduced total cyclone numbers for the SST increase in isolation, but not for the CO2more » increase in isolation. Changes in genesis in these experiments roughly follow changes in mean vertical motion, reflecting changes in convective mass fluxes. Discussion of one possible perspective on how changes in the convective mass flux might alter genesis rates is provided.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [2]
  1. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Princeton, NJ (United States)
  2. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Princeton, NJ (United States); University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF); UT-Battelle LLC/ORNL, Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
OSTI Identifier:
1564909
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-00OR22725
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Journal of Climate
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 24; Journal Issue: 20; Journal ID: ISSN 0894-8755
Publisher:
American Meteorological Society
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences; Tropical cyclones; Carbon dioxide; Climate change; Climate models

Citation Formats

Held, Isaac M., and Zhao, Ming. The Response of Tropical Cyclone Statistics to an Increase in CO2 with Fixed Sea Surface Temperatures. United States: N. p., 2011. Web. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-11-00050.1.
Held, Isaac M., & Zhao, Ming. The Response of Tropical Cyclone Statistics to an Increase in CO2 with Fixed Sea Surface Temperatures. United States. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-11-00050.1
Held, Isaac M., and Zhao, Ming. Sat . "The Response of Tropical Cyclone Statistics to an Increase in CO2 with Fixed Sea Surface Temperatures". United States. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-11-00050.1. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1564909.
@article{osti_1564909,
title = {The Response of Tropical Cyclone Statistics to an Increase in CO2 with Fixed Sea Surface Temperatures},
author = {Held, Isaac M. and Zhao, Ming},
abstractNote = {The effects on tropical cyclone statistics of doubling CO2, with fixed sea surface temperatures (SSTs), are compared to the effects of a 2-K increase in SST, with fixed CO2, using a 50-km resolution global atmospheric model. Confirming earlier results of Yoshimura and Sugi, a significant fraction of the reduction in globally averaged tropical storm frequency seen in simulations in which both SST and CO2 are increased can be thought of as the effect of the CO2 increase with fixed SSTs. Globally, the model produces a decrease in tropical cyclone frequency of about 10% due to doubling of CO2 and an additional 10% for a 2-K increase in SST, resulting in roughly a 20% reduction when both effects are present. The relative contribution of the CO2 effect to the total reduction is larger in the Northern than in the Southern Hemisphere. The average intensity of storms increases in the model with increasing SST, but intensity remains roughly unchanged, or decreases slightly, with the increase in CO2 alone. As a result, when considering the frequency of more intense cyclones, the intensity increase tends to compensate for the reduced total cyclone numbers for the SST increase in isolation, but not for the CO2 increase in isolation. Changes in genesis in these experiments roughly follow changes in mean vertical motion, reflecting changes in convective mass fluxes. Discussion of one possible perspective on how changes in the convective mass flux might alter genesis rates is provided.},
doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-11-00050.1},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = 20,
volume = 24,
place = {United States},
year = {2011},
month = {10}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record

Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 78 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

Save / Share:

Works referenced in this record:

Precipitation, radiative forcing and global temperature change: PRECIPITATION AND RADIATIVE FORCING
journal, July 2010

  • Andrews, Timothy; Forster, Piers M.; Boucher, Olivier
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 37, Issue 14
  • DOI: 10.1029/2010GL043991

Fast versus slow response in climate change: implications for the global hydrological cycle
journal, May 2009


Modeled Impact of Anthropogenic Warming on the Frequency of Intense Atlantic Hurricanes
journal, January 2010


How may tropical cyclones change in a warmer climate?
journal, January 2007


The Genesis of Hurricane Guillermo: TEXMEX Analyses and a Modeling Study
journal, October 1997


Low frequency variability of tropical cyclone potential intensity 1. Interannual to interdecadal variability
journal, January 2002


On dynamic and thermodynamic components of cloud changes
journal, March 2004


Tropical cyclone genesis potential index in climate models
journal, January 2007


A Tropical Cyclone Genesis Parameter for the Tropical Atlantic
journal, April 2001


Mixed Rossby–Gravity Waves and Western Pacific Tropical Cyclogenesis. Part I: Synoptic Evolution
journal, July 2002


Tropical cyclogenesis in a tropical wave critical layer: easterly waves
journal, January 2009

  • Dunkerton, T. J.; Montgomery, M. T.; Wang, Z.
  • Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 9, Issue 15
  • DOI: 10.5194/acp-9-5587-2009

The Maximum Intensity of Hurricanes
journal, April 1988


Environmental Factors Affecting Tropical Cyclone Power Dissipation
journal, November 2007


The Hurricane—Climate Connection
journal, May 2008


Hurricanes and Global Warming: Results from Downscaling IPCC AR4 Simulations
journal, March 2008

  • Emanuel, Kerry; Sundararajan, Ragoth; Williams, John
  • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 89, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-89-3-347

Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity due to Global Warming: Results from a High-Resolution Coupled General Circulation Model
journal, October 2008


Robust Responses of the Hydrological Cycle to Global Warming
journal, November 2006

  • Held, Isaac M.; Soden, Brian J.
  • Journal of Climate, Vol. 19, Issue 21
  • DOI: 10.1175/JCLI3990.1

Time-Mean Response over the Tropical Pacific to Increased C0 2 in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model
journal, September 1995


Tropical cyclones and climate change
journal, February 2010

  • Knutson, Thomas R.; McBride, John L.; Chan, Johnny
  • Nature Geoscience, Vol. 3, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.1038/ngeo779

Origin of the Summertime Synoptic-Scale Wave Train in the Western North Pacific*
journal, March 2006

  • Li, Tim
  • Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 63, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.1175/JAS3676.1

Tropical storms: representation and diagnosis in climate models and the impacts of climate change
journal, May 2005


Increased sensitivity of tropical cyclogenesis to wind shear in higher SST environments
journal, January 2008

  • Nolan, David S.; Rappin, Eric D.
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 35, Issue 14
  • DOI: 10.1029/2008GL034147

Tropical cyclogenesis sensitivity to environmental parameters in radiative-convective equilibrium
journal, October 2007

  • Nolan, David S.; Rappin, Eric D.; Emanuel, Kerry A.
  • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 133, Issue 629
  • DOI: 10.1002/qj.170

The Hydrological Cycle over a Wide Range of Climates Simulated with an Idealized GCM
journal, August 2008


An Air–Sea Interaction Theory for Tropical Cyclones. Part II: Evolutionary Study Using a Nonhydrostatic Axisymmetric Numerical Model
journal, February 1987


A Mechanism of Tropical Precipitation Change due to CO 2 Increase
journal, January 2004


Influence of the Global Warming on Tropical Cyclone Climatology: An Experiment with the JMA Global Model.
journal, January 2002

  • Sugi, Masato; Noda, Akira; Sato, Nobuo
  • Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, Vol. 80, Issue 2
  • DOI: 10.2151/jmsj.80.249

A Reduction in Global Tropical Cyclone Frequency due to Global Warming
journal, January 2009


Effect of remote sea surface temperature change on tropical cyclone potential intensity
journal, December 2007


Influence of Greenhouse Warming on Tropical Cyclone Frequency
journal, January 2006

  • Yoshimura, Jun; Sugi, Masato; Noda, Akira
  • Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II, Vol. 84, Issue 2
  • DOI: 10.2151/jmsj.84.405

An Analysis of the Effect of Global Warming on the Intensity of Atlantic Hurricanes Using a GCM with Statistical Refinement
journal, December 2010


Simulations of Global Hurricane Climatology, Interannual Variability, and Response to Global Warming Using a 50-km Resolution GCM
journal, December 2009

  • Zhao, Ming; Held, Isaac M.; Lin, Shian-Jiann
  • Journal of Climate, Vol. 22, Issue 24
  • DOI: 10.1175/2009JCLI3049.1

Retrospective Forecasts of the Hurricane Season Using a Global Atmospheric Model Assuming Persistence of SST Anomalies
journal, October 2010

  • Zhao, Ming; Held, Isaac M.; Vecchi, Gabriel A.
  • Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 138, Issue 10
  • DOI: 10.1175/2010MWR3366.1

    Works referencing / citing this record:

    Improving AGCM Hurricane Structure With Two-Way Nesting
    journal, January 2019

    • Gao, Kun; Harris, Lucas; Chen, Jan-Huey
    • Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 11, Issue 1
    • DOI: 10.1029/2018ms001359

    Tropical cyclones in the GISS ModelE2
    journal, July 2016

    • Camargo, Suzana J.; Sobel, Adam H.; Delgenio, Anthony D.
    • Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, Vol. 68, Issue 1
    • DOI: 10.3402/tellusa.v68.31494

    Projected changes in ENSO-driven regional tropical cyclone tracks
    journal, January 2020


    The Climatological Effect of Saharan Dust on Global Tropical Cyclones in a Fully Coupled GCM
    journal, May 2018

    • Strong, Jeffrey D. O.; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Ginoux, Paul
    • Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 123, Issue 10
    • DOI: 10.1029/2017jd027808

    The sensitivity of hurricane frequency to ITCZ changes and radiatively forced warming in aquaplanet simulations: SENSITIVITY OF AQUAPLANET HURRICANES
    journal, August 2013

    • Merlis, Timothy M.; Zhao, Ming; Held, Isaac M.
    • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 40, Issue 15
    • DOI: 10.1002/grl.50680

    Understand the Direct Effect of CO 2 Increase on Tropical Circulation and TC Activity: Land Surface Warming Versus Direct Radiative Forcing
    journal, June 2019

    • Zhou, Wenyu; Zhao, Ming; Yang, Da
    • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 46, Issue 12
    • DOI: 10.1029/2019gl082865

    Tropical cyclone sensitivities to CO2 doubling: roles of atmospheric resolution, synoptic variability and background climate changes
    journal, August 2019

    • Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Delworth, Thomas L.; Murakami, Hiroyuki
    • Climate Dynamics, Vol. 53, Issue 9-10
    • DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-04913-y

    Tropical cyclones and climate change: Tropical cyclones and climate change
    journal, November 2015

    • Walsh, Kevin J. E.; McBride, John L.; Klotzbach, Philip J.
    • Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, Vol. 7, Issue 1
    • DOI: 10.1002/wcc.371

    Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Model Tracks in Present and Future Climates
    text, January 2017

    • Nakamura, Jennifer; Camargo, Suzana J.; Sobel, Adam H.
    • Columbia University
    • DOI: 10.7916/d8-j8kz-mb30

    Interplay of drought and tropical cyclone activity in SE U.S. gross primary productivity: Impacts of TC Activity on SE U.S. GPP
    journal, June 2016

    • Lowman, Lauren E. L.; Barros, Ana P.
    • Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, Vol. 121, Issue 6
    • DOI: 10.1002/2015jg003279

    Rapid Adjustments of Cloud and Hydrological Cycle to Increasing CO2: a Review
    journal, March 2015

    • Kamae, Youichi; Watanabe, Masahiro; Ogura, Tomoo
    • Current Climate Change Reports, Vol. 1, Issue 2
    • DOI: 10.1007/s40641-015-0007-5

    Tropical cyclones in climate models: Tropical cyclones in climate models
    journal, November 2015

    • Camargo, Suzana J.; Wing, Allison A.
    • Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, Vol. 7, Issue 2
    • DOI: 10.1002/wcc.373

    Tropical cyclone rainfall area controlled by relative sea surface temperature
    journal, March 2015

    • Lin, Yanluan; Zhao, Ming; Zhang, Minghua
    • Nature Communications, Vol. 6, Issue 1
    • DOI: 10.1038/ncomms7591

    Tropical cyclogenesis in warm climates simulated by a cloud-system resolving model
    journal, March 2018


    Future changes in Atlantic hurricanes with the rotated-stretched ARPEGE-Climat at very high resolution
    journal, November 2019


    Future changes in tropical cyclone activity projected by multi-physics and multi-SST ensemble experiments using the 60-km-mesh MRI-AGCM
    journal, October 2011


    The Response of Tropical Organized Convection to El Niño Warming
    journal, August 2019

    • Sullivan, Sylvia C.; Schiro, Kathleen A.; Stubenrauch, Claudia
    • Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
    • DOI: 10.1029/2019jd031026

    Marine cloud brightening: regional applications
    journal, December 2014

    • Latham, John; Gadian, Alan; Fournier, Jim
    • Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 372, Issue 2031
    • DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2014.0053

    Orbitally Induced Variation of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Over the Western North Pacific During the Mid‐Piacenzian Warm Period: A Modeling Perspective
    journal, June 2019

    • Yan, Qing; Wei, Ting; Zhang, Zhongshi
    • Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, Vol. 34, Issue 6
    • DOI: 10.1029/2018pa003535

    Characteristics of tropical cyclones in high‐resolution models in the present climate
    journal, December 2014

    • Shaevitz, Daniel A.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Sobel, Adam H.
    • Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 6, Issue 4
    • DOI: 10.1002/2014ms000372

    Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Model Tracks in Present and Future Climates: TC TRACKS IN PRESENT AND FUTURE CLIMATES
    journal, September 2017

    • Nakamura, Jennifer; Camargo, Suzana J.; Sobel, Adam H.
    • Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 122, Issue 18
    • DOI: 10.1002/2017jd027007

    Tropical cyclones in climate models
    text, January 2016

    • Camargo, Suzana J.; Wing, Allison A.
    • Columbia University
    • DOI: 10.7916/d8pv6kf0