Stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: A Review and Synthesis
Abstract
Abstract The notion that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) can have more than one stable equilibrium emerged in the 1980s as a powerful hypothesis to explain rapid climate variability during the Pleistocene. Ever since, the idea that a temporary perturbation of the AMOCāor a permanent change in its forcingācould trigger an irreversible collapse has remained a reason for concern. Here we review literature on the equilibrium stability of the AMOC and present a synthesis that puts our understanding of past and future AMOC behavior in a unifying framework. This framework is based on concepts from Dynamical Systems Theory, which has proven to be an important tool in interpreting a wide range of model behavior. We conclude that it cannot be ruled out that the AMOC in our current climate is in, or close to, a regime of multiple equilibria. But there is considerable uncertainty in the location of stability thresholds with respect to our current climate state, so we have no credible indications of where our presentāday AMOC is located with respect to thresholds. We conclude by identifying gaps in our knowledge and proposing possible ways forward to address these gaps.
- Authors:
-
[1];
[2];
[5];
[6];
[1]
- Los Alamos National Laboratory Los Alamos NM USA
- Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean University of Washington Seattle WA USA, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory NOAA Seattle WA USA
- Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre Southampton University of Southampton Southampton UK
- Department of Geology &, Geophysics Yale University New Haven CT USA, LOCEAN/IPSL Sorbonne University Paris France
- Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USA
- Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter UK
- Earth and Planetary Sciences University of California Riverside CA USA
- National Oceanography Centre Southampton UK
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA); National Science Foundation (NSF)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1564586
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1564588; OSTI ID: 1571615
- Report Number(s):
- LA-UR-19-21448
Journal ID: ISSN 2169-9275
- Grant/Contract Number:
- 89233218CNA000001
- Resource Type:
- Published Article
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Geophysical Research. Oceans
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Journal of Geophysical Research. Oceans Journal Volume: 124 Journal Issue: 8; Journal ID: ISSN 2169-9275
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation; AMOC stability; Review; Dynamical Systems Theory; climate dynamics; climate thresholds
Citation Formats
Weijer, W., Cheng, W., Drijfhout, S. S., Fedorov, A. V., Hu, A., Jackson, L. C., Liu, W., McDonagh, E. L., Mecking, J. V., and Zhang, J.. Stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: A Review and Synthesis. United States: N. p., 2019.
Web. doi:10.1029/2019JC015083.
Weijer, W., Cheng, W., Drijfhout, S. S., Fedorov, A. V., Hu, A., Jackson, L. C., Liu, W., McDonagh, E. L., Mecking, J. V., & Zhang, J.. Stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: A Review and Synthesis. United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JC015083
Weijer, W., Cheng, W., Drijfhout, S. S., Fedorov, A. V., Hu, A., Jackson, L. C., Liu, W., McDonagh, E. L., Mecking, J. V., and Zhang, J.. Sat .
"Stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: A Review and Synthesis". United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JC015083.
@article{osti_1564586,
title = {Stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: A Review and Synthesis},
author = {Weijer, W. and Cheng, W. and Drijfhout, S. S. and Fedorov, A. V. and Hu, A. and Jackson, L. C. and Liu, W. and McDonagh, E. L. and Mecking, J. V. and Zhang, J.},
abstractNote = {Abstract The notion that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) can have more than one stable equilibrium emerged in the 1980s as a powerful hypothesis to explain rapid climate variability during the Pleistocene. Ever since, the idea that a temporary perturbation of the AMOCāor a permanent change in its forcingācould trigger an irreversible collapse has remained a reason for concern. Here we review literature on the equilibrium stability of the AMOC and present a synthesis that puts our understanding of past and future AMOC behavior in a unifying framework. This framework is based on concepts from Dynamical Systems Theory, which has proven to be an important tool in interpreting a wide range of model behavior. We conclude that it cannot be ruled out that the AMOC in our current climate is in, or close to, a regime of multiple equilibria. But there is considerable uncertainty in the location of stability thresholds with respect to our current climate state, so we have no credible indications of where our presentāday AMOC is located with respect to thresholds. We conclude by identifying gaps in our knowledge and proposing possible ways forward to address these gaps.},
doi = {10.1029/2019JC015083},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research. Oceans},
number = 8,
volume = 124,
place = {United States},
year = {2019},
month = {8}
}
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Figure 1: Schematic of the (a) Stommel (1961) two-box model and (c) the Welander (1986) three-box model, as prototypes for single-hemispheric and double-hemispheric systems, respectively. Flow strength $m$ is proportional to the density difference between the boxes, which is determined by their salinity $S$ and temperature $T$. Sketches of typicalmore »
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Figures/Tables have been extracted from DOE-funded journal article accepted manuscripts.