Stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: A Review and Synthesis

Weijer, Wilbert; Cheng, Wei; Drijfhout, Sybren S.; Fedorov, Alexey V.; Hu, Aixue; Jackson, Laura C.; Liu, Wei; McDonagh, Elaine L.; Mecking, Jennifer V.; Zhang, Jiaxu

doi:10.1029/2019JC015083

Title: Stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: A Review and Synthesis

Journal Article · 24 July 2019 · Journal of Geophysical Research. Oceans

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JC015083 · OSTI ID:1564586

^[1];

^[2]; Drijfhout, Sybren S. ^[3]; Fedorov, Alexey V. ^[4];

^[5];

^[6]; Liu, Wei ^[7]; McDonagh, Elaine L. ^[3]; Mecking, Jennifer V. ^[3];

^[1]

Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States); National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Seattle, WA (United States)
Univ. of Southampton (United Kingdom)
Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United States); Sorbonne Univ., Paris (France)
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)
Univ. of California, Riverside, CA (United States)

The notion that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) can have more than one stable equilibrium emerged in the 1980s as a powerful hypothesis to explain rapid climate variability during the Pleistocene. Ever since, the idea that a temporary perturbation of the AMOC—or a permanent change in its forcing—could trigger an irreversible collapse has remained a reason for concern. Here we review literature on the equilibrium stability of the AMOC and present a synthesis that puts our understanding of past and future AMOC behavior in a unifying framework. This framework is based on concepts from Dynamical Systems Theory, which has proven to be an important tool in interpreting a wide range of model behavior. We conclude that it cannot be ruled out that the AMOC in our current climate is in, or close to, a regime of multiple equilibria. But there is considerable uncertainty in the location of stability thresholds with respect to our current climate state, so we have no credible indications of where our present-day AMOC is located with respect to thresholds. We conclude by identifying gaps in our knowledge and proposing possible ways forward to address these gaps.

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Research Organization:: Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA); National Science Foundation (NSF)

Grant/Contract Number:: 89233218CNA000001

OSTI ID:: 1564586

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1564588; OSTI ID: 1571615

Report Number(s):: LA-UR-19-21448

Journal Information:: Journal of Geophysical Research. Oceans, Vol. 124, Issue 8; ISSN 2169-9275

Publisher:: American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 87 works

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Recent Contributions of Theory to Our Understanding of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Johnson, Helen L.; Cessi, Paola; Marshall, David P. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Vol. 124, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019jc015330	journal	August 2019

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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
AMOC stability
Review
Dynamical Systems Theory
climate dynamics
climate thresholds