Interacting implications of climate change, population dynamics, and urban heat mitigation for future exposure to heat extremes
Abstract
One near-term expression of climate change is increased occurrence and intensity of extreme heat events. The evolution of extreme heat risk in cities depends on the interactions of large-scale climate change with regional dynamics and urban micro-climates as well as the distribution and demographic characteristics of people who live and work within these micro-climate areas. Here we use California as a testbed where we employ a suite of high-resolution (1.5 km) future regional climate simulations coupled with a satellite-driven urban canopy model and a spatially explicit population projection to investigate the interacting effects of climate change, population growth, and urban heat mitigation measures, such as cool roofs, on exposure to extreme heat events. We find that climate change and population growth reinforce with one another to drive substantial increases in future exposure to heat extremes, which are poised to become more frequent, longer, and more intense. Exposure to events analogous to historic high-mortality extreme heat waves increases by 3.5-6 folds. Widespread implementation of cool roofs can offset a substantial fraction (51%-100%) of the increased heat exposure and associated building energy demand owing to climate change in urbanized regions.
- Authors:
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Basic Energy Sciences (BES). Scientific User Facilities Division
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1564440
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1581353
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC02-05CH11231
- Resource Type:
- Published Article
- Journal Name:
- Environmental Research Letters
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Environmental Research Letters Journal Volume: 14 Journal Issue: 8; Journal ID: ISSN 1748-9326
- Publisher:
- IOP Publishing
- Country of Publication:
- United Kingdom
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; extreme heat exposure; climate change; population growth; urban climate adaptation
Citation Formats
Vahmani, P., Jones, Andrew D., and Patricola, Christina M. Interacting implications of climate change, population dynamics, and urban heat mitigation for future exposure to heat extremes. United Kingdom: N. p., 2019.
Web. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab28b0.
Vahmani, P., Jones, Andrew D., & Patricola, Christina M. Interacting implications of climate change, population dynamics, and urban heat mitigation for future exposure to heat extremes. United Kingdom. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab28b0
Vahmani, P., Jones, Andrew D., and Patricola, Christina M. Thu .
"Interacting implications of climate change, population dynamics, and urban heat mitigation for future exposure to heat extremes". United Kingdom. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab28b0.
@article{osti_1564440,
title = {Interacting implications of climate change, population dynamics, and urban heat mitigation for future exposure to heat extremes},
author = {Vahmani, P. and Jones, Andrew D. and Patricola, Christina M.},
abstractNote = {One near-term expression of climate change is increased occurrence and intensity of extreme heat events. The evolution of extreme heat risk in cities depends on the interactions of large-scale climate change with regional dynamics and urban micro-climates as well as the distribution and demographic characteristics of people who live and work within these micro-climate areas. Here we use California as a testbed where we employ a suite of high-resolution (1.5 km) future regional climate simulations coupled with a satellite-driven urban canopy model and a spatially explicit population projection to investigate the interacting effects of climate change, population growth, and urban heat mitigation measures, such as cool roofs, on exposure to extreme heat events. We find that climate change and population growth reinforce with one another to drive substantial increases in future exposure to heat extremes, which are poised to become more frequent, longer, and more intense. Exposure to events analogous to historic high-mortality extreme heat waves increases by 3.5-6 folds. Widespread implementation of cool roofs can offset a substantial fraction (51%-100%) of the increased heat exposure and associated building energy demand owing to climate change in urbanized regions.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab28b0},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = 8,
volume = 14,
place = {United Kingdom},
year = {2019},
month = {8}
}
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab28b0
Web of Science
Works referenced in this record:
Surrogate climate-change scenarios for regional climate models
journal, March 1996
- Schär, Christoph; Frei, Christoph; Lüthi, Daniel
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 23, Issue 6
Classifying heatwaves: developing health-based models to predict high-mortality versus moderate United States heatwaves
journal, August 2016
- Anderson, G. Brooke; Oleson, Keith W.; Jones, Bryan
- Climatic Change, Vol. 146, Issue 3-4
High-Resolution Coupled Climate Runoff Simulations of Seasonal Snowfall over Colorado: A Process Study of Current and Warmer Climate
journal, June 2011
- Rasmussen, Roy; Liu, Changhai; Ikeda, Kyoko
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 24, Issue 12
Effects of Heat Stress on Construction Labor Productivity in Hong Kong: A Case Study of Rebar Workers
journal, September 2017
- Yi, Wen; Chan, Albert
- International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Vol. 14, Issue 9
A scale and aerosol aware stochastic convective parameterization for weather and air quality modeling
journal, January 2014
- Grell, G. A.; Freitas, S. R.
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 14, Issue 10
Impacts of compound extreme weather events on ozone in the present and future
journal, January 2018
- Zhang, Junxi; Gao, Yang; Luo, Kun
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 18, Issue 13
The vulnerability of global cities to climate hazards
journal, April 2007
- De Sherbinin, Alex; Schiller, Andrew; Pulsipher, Alex
- Environment and Urbanization, Vol. 19, Issue 1
Global and regional changes in exposure to extreme heat and the relative contributions of climate and population change
journal, March 2017
- Liu, Zhao; Anderson, Bruce; Yan, Kai
- Scientific Reports, Vol. 7, Issue 1
The integrated WRF/urban modelling system: development, evaluation, and applications to urban environmental problems
journal, January 2011
- Chen, Fei; Kusaka, Hiroyuki; Bornstein, Robert
- International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 31, Issue 2
North American Regional Reanalysis
journal, March 2006
- Mesinger, Fedor; DiMego, Geoff; Kalnay, Eugenia
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 87, Issue 3
A Simple Single-Layer Urban Canopy Model For Atmospheric Models: Comparison With Multi-Layer And Slab Models
journal, December 2001
- Kusaka, Hiroyuki; Kondo, Hiroaki; Kikegawa, Yokihiro
- Boundary-Layer Meteorology, Vol. 101, Issue 3
More Intense, More Frequent, and Longer Lasting Heat Waves in the 21st Century
journal, August 2004
- Meehl, G. A.
- Science, Vol. 305, Issue 5686
Anthropogenic influences on major tropical cyclone events
journal, November 2018
- Patricola, Christina M.; Wehner, Michael F.
- Nature, Vol. 563, Issue 7731
Higher temperatures increase suicide rates in the United States and Mexico
journal, July 2018
- Burke, Marshall; González, Felipe; Baylis, Patrick
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 8, Issue 8
Impact of regional climate change on human health
journal, November 2005
- Patz, Jonathan A.; Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Holloway, Tracey
- Nature, Vol. 438, Issue 7066
Investigating the climate impacts of urbanization and the potential for cool roofs to counter future climate change in Southern California
journal, December 2016
- Vahmani, P.; Sun, F.; Hall, A.
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 11, Issue 12
Documentation for Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4)
collection, January 2016
- University, Center For International Earth Science Information Network-CIESIN-Columbia
- Palisades, NY: NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC)
The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves
journal, January 2004
- Schär, Christoph; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Lüthi, Daniel
- Nature, Vol. 427, Issue 6972
Coupling a Single-Layer Urban Canopy Model with a Simple Atmospheric Model: Impact on Urban Heat Island Simulation for an Idealized Case
journal, January 2004
- Kusaka, Hiroyuki; Kimura, Fujio
- Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, Vol. 82, Issue 1
Numerical Study of Convection Observed during the Winter Monsoon Experiment Using a Mesoscale Two-Dimensional Model
journal, October 1989
- Dudhia, Jimy
- Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 46, Issue 20
A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 3
text, January 2008
- Skamarock, William; Klemp, Joseph; Dudhia, Jimy
- UCAR/NCAR
Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmospheres: RRTM, a validated correlated-k model for the longwave
journal, July 1997
- Mlawer, Eli J.; Taubman, Steven J.; Brown, Patrick D.
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 102, Issue D14
Diagnosing conditional anthropogenic contributions to heavy Colorado rainfall in September 2013
journal, September 2017
- Pall, Pardeep; Patricola, Christina M.; Wehner, Michael F.
- Weather and Climate Extremes, Vol. 17
Cooling the cities – A review of reflective and green roof mitigation technologies to fight heat island and improve comfort in urban environments
journal, May 2014
- Santamouris, M.
- Solar Energy, Vol. 103
A time-split nonhydrostatic atmospheric model for weather research and forecasting applications
journal, March 2008
- Skamarock, William C.; Klemp, Joseph B.
- Journal of Computational Physics, Vol. 227, Issue 7
Future population exposure to US heat extremes
journal, May 2015
- Jones, Bryan; O’Neill, Brian C.; McDaniel, Larry
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 5, Issue 7
National Urban Database and Access Portal Tool
journal, August 2009
- Ching, Jason; Brown, Michael; Burian, Steven
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 90, Issue 8
Heating and cooling building energy demand evaluation; a simplified model and a modified degree days approach
journal, September 2014
- De Rosa, Mattia; Bianco, Vincenzo; Scarpa, Federico
- Applied Energy, Vol. 128
The Great 2006 Heat Wave over California and Nevada: Signal of an Increasing Trend
journal, December 2009
- Gershunov, Alexander; Cayan, Daniel R.; Iacobellis, Sam F.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 22, Issue 23
Impact of Cloud Microphysics on the Development of Trailing Stratiform Precipitation in a Simulated Squall Line: Comparison of One- and Two-Moment Schemes
journal, March 2009
- Morrison, H.; Thompson, G.; Tatarskii, V.
- Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 137, Issue 3
Impact of remotely sensed albedo and vegetation fraction on simulation of urban climate in WRF-urban canopy model: A case study of the urban heat island in Los Angeles: SATELLITE-SUPPORTED URBAN CLIMATE MODEL
journal, February 2016
- Vahmani, P.; Ban-Weiss, G. A.
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 121, Issue 4
Heat-Related Mortality in a Warming Climate: Projections for 12 U.S. Cities
journal, October 2014
- Petkova, Elisaveta; Bader, Daniel; Anderson, G.
- International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Vol. 11, Issue 11
Water conservation benefits of urban heat mitigation
journal, October 2017
- Vahmani, Pouya; Jones, Andrew D.
- Nature Communications, Vol. 8, Issue 1
A New Moist Turbulence Parameterization in the Community Atmosphere Model
journal, June 2009
- Bretherton, Christopher S.; Park, Sungsu
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 22, Issue 12
Impact of heatwave on a megacity: an observational analysis of New York City during July 2016
journal, May 2017
- Ramamurthy, Prathap; González, Jorge; Ortiz, Luis
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 12, Issue 5
A Hybrid Dynamical–Statistical Downscaling Technique. Part I: Development and Validation of the Technique
journal, June 2015
- Walton, Daniel B.; Sun, Fengpeng; Hall, Alex
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 28, Issue 12
Current and future impacts of extreme events in California
journal, November 2011
- Mastrandrea, Michael D.; Tebaldi, Claudia; Snyder, Carolyn W.
- Climatic Change, Vol. 109, Issue S1
Accuracy assessment of NLCD 2006 land cover and impervious surface
journal, March 2013
- Wickham, James D.; Stehman, Stephen V.; Gass, Leila
- Remote Sensing of Environment, Vol. 130
Incorporating an Urban Irrigation Module into the Noah Land Surface Model Coupled with an Urban Canopy Model
journal, August 2014
- Vahmani, Pouya; Hogue, Terri S.
- Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 15, Issue 4