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Title: Interacting implications of climate change, population dynamics, and urban heat mitigation for future exposure to heat extremes

Abstract

One near-term expression of climate change is increased occurrence and intensity of extreme heat events. The evolution of extreme heat risk in cities depends on the interactions of large-scale climate change with regional dynamics and urban micro-climates as well as the distribution and demographic characteristics of people who live and work within these micro-climate areas. Here we use California as a testbed where we employ a suite of high-resolution (1.5 km) future regional climate simulations coupled with a satellite-driven urban canopy model and a spatially explicit population projection to investigate the interacting effects of climate change, population growth, and urban heat mitigation measures, such as cool roofs, on exposure to extreme heat events. We find that climate change and population growth reinforce with one another to drive substantial increases in future exposure to heat extremes, which are poised to become more frequent, longer, and more intense. Exposure to events analogous to historic high-mortality extreme heat waves increases by 3.5-6 folds. Widespread implementation of cool roofs can offset a substantial fraction (51%-100%) of the increased heat exposure and associated building energy demand owing to climate change in urbanized regions.

Authors:
ORCiD logo; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Basic Energy Sciences (BES). Scientific User Facilities Division
OSTI Identifier:
1564440
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1581353
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC02-05CH11231
Resource Type:
Published Article
Journal Name:
Environmental Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Environmental Research Letters Journal Volume: 14 Journal Issue: 8; Journal ID: ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher:
IOP Publishing
Country of Publication:
United Kingdom
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; extreme heat exposure; climate change; population growth; urban climate adaptation

Citation Formats

Vahmani, P., Jones, Andrew D., and Patricola, Christina M. Interacting implications of climate change, population dynamics, and urban heat mitigation for future exposure to heat extremes. United Kingdom: N. p., 2019. Web. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab28b0.
Vahmani, P., Jones, Andrew D., & Patricola, Christina M. Interacting implications of climate change, population dynamics, and urban heat mitigation for future exposure to heat extremes. United Kingdom. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab28b0.
Vahmani, P., Jones, Andrew D., and Patricola, Christina M. Thu . "Interacting implications of climate change, population dynamics, and urban heat mitigation for future exposure to heat extremes". United Kingdom. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab28b0.
@article{osti_1564440,
title = {Interacting implications of climate change, population dynamics, and urban heat mitigation for future exposure to heat extremes},
author = {Vahmani, P. and Jones, Andrew D. and Patricola, Christina M.},
abstractNote = {One near-term expression of climate change is increased occurrence and intensity of extreme heat events. The evolution of extreme heat risk in cities depends on the interactions of large-scale climate change with regional dynamics and urban micro-climates as well as the distribution and demographic characteristics of people who live and work within these micro-climate areas. Here we use California as a testbed where we employ a suite of high-resolution (1.5 km) future regional climate simulations coupled with a satellite-driven urban canopy model and a spatially explicit population projection to investigate the interacting effects of climate change, population growth, and urban heat mitigation measures, such as cool roofs, on exposure to extreme heat events. We find that climate change and population growth reinforce with one another to drive substantial increases in future exposure to heat extremes, which are poised to become more frequent, longer, and more intense. Exposure to events analogous to historic high-mortality extreme heat waves increases by 3.5-6 folds. Widespread implementation of cool roofs can offset a substantial fraction (51%-100%) of the increased heat exposure and associated building energy demand owing to climate change in urbanized regions.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab28b0},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = 8,
volume = 14,
place = {United Kingdom},
year = {2019},
month = {8}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab28b0

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Cited by: 1 work
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