Interacting implications of climate change, population dynamics, and urban heat mitigation for future exposure to heat extremes

Vahmani, P.; Jones, Andrew D.; Patricola, Christina M.

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab28b0

Title: Interacting implications of climate change, population dynamics, and urban heat mitigation for future exposure to heat extremes

Abstract

One near-term expression of climate change is increased occurrence and intensity of extreme heat events. The evolution of extreme heat risk in cities depends on the interactions of large-scale climate change with regional dynamics and urban micro-climates as well as the distribution and demographic characteristics of people who live and work within these micro-climate areas. Here we use California as a testbed where we employ a suite of high-resolution (1.5 km) future regional climate simulations coupled with a satellite-driven urban canopy model and a spatially explicit population projection to investigate the interacting effects of climate change, population growth, and urban heat mitigation measures, such as cool roofs, on exposure to extreme heat events. We find that climate change and population growth reinforce with one another to drive substantial increases in future exposure to heat extremes, which are poised to become more frequent, longer, and more intense. Exposure to events analogous to historic high-mortality extreme heat waves increases by 3.5-6 folds. Widespread implementation of cool roofs can offset a substantial fraction (51%-100%) of the increased heat exposure and associated building energy demand owing to climate change in urbanized regions.

Authors:

; Jones, Andrew D.; Patricola, Christina M.

Publication Date:: 2019-08-01

Research Org.:: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Basic Energy Sciences (BES). Scientific User Facilities Division

OSTI Identifier:: 1564440

Alternate Identifier(s):: OSTI ID: 1581353

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231

Resource Type:: Published Article

Journal Name:: Environmental Research Letters

Additional Journal Information:: Journal Name: Environmental Research Letters Journal Volume: 14 Journal Issue: 8; Journal ID: ISSN 1748-9326

Publisher:: IOP Publishing

Country of Publication:: United Kingdom

Language:: English

Subject:: 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; extreme heat exposure; climate change; population growth; urban climate adaptation

Citation Formats


                    Vahmani, P., Jones, Andrew D., and Patricola, Christina M. Interacting implications of climate change, population dynamics, and urban heat mitigation for future exposure to heat extremes.  United Kingdom: N. p., 2019. 
Web.  doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab28b0.

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                    Vahmani, P., Jones, Andrew D., & Patricola, Christina M. Interacting implications of climate change, population dynamics, and urban heat mitigation for future exposure to heat extremes.  United Kingdom.  https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab28b0

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                    Vahmani, P., Jones, Andrew D., and Patricola, Christina M. Thu .  
"Interacting implications of climate change, population dynamics, and urban heat mitigation for future exposure to heat extremes".  United Kingdom.  https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab28b0.

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@article{osti_1564440,

  title        = {Interacting implications of climate change, population dynamics, and urban heat mitigation for future exposure to heat extremes},

  author       = {Vahmani, P. and Jones, Andrew D. and Patricola, Christina M.},

  abstractNote = {One near-term expression of climate change is increased occurrence and intensity of extreme heat events. The evolution of extreme heat risk in cities depends on the interactions of large-scale climate change with regional dynamics and urban micro-climates as well as the distribution and demographic characteristics of people who live and work within these micro-climate areas. Here we use California as a testbed where we employ a suite of high-resolution (1.5 km) future regional climate simulations coupled with a satellite-driven urban canopy model and a spatially explicit population projection to investigate the interacting effects of climate change, population growth, and urban heat mitigation measures, such as cool roofs, on exposure to extreme heat events. We find that climate change and population growth reinforce with one another to drive substantial increases in future exposure to heat extremes, which are poised to become more frequent, longer, and more intense. Exposure to events analogous to historic high-mortality extreme heat waves increases by 3.5-6 folds. Widespread implementation of cool roofs can offset a substantial fraction (51%-100%) of the increased heat exposure and associated building energy demand owing to climate change in urbanized regions.},

  doi          = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab28b0},

  journal      = {Environmental Research Letters},

  number       = 8,

  volume       = 14,

  place        = {United Kingdom},

  year         = {2019},

  month        = {8}

}

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Title: Interacting implications of climate change, population dynamics, and urban heat mitigation for future exposure to heat extremes

Abstract

Citation Formats

Surrogate climate-change scenarios for regional climate models journal, March 1996

Classifying heatwaves: developing health-based models to predict high-mortality versus moderate United States heatwaves journal, August 2016

High-Resolution Coupled Climate Runoff Simulations of Seasonal Snowfall over Colorado: A Process Study of Current and Warmer Climate journal, June 2011

Effects of Heat Stress on Construction Labor Productivity in Hong Kong: A Case Study of Rebar Workers journal, September 2017

A scale and aerosol aware stochastic convective parameterization for weather and air quality modeling journal, January 2014

Impacts of compound extreme weather events on ozone in the present and future journal, January 2018

The vulnerability of global cities to climate hazards journal, April 2007

Global and regional changes in exposure to extreme heat and the relative contributions of climate and population change journal, March 2017

The integrated WRF/urban modelling system: development, evaluation, and applications to urban environmental problems journal, January 2011

North American Regional Reanalysis journal, March 2006

A Simple Single-Layer Urban Canopy Model For Atmospheric Models: Comparison With Multi-Layer And Slab Models journal, December 2001

More Intense, More Frequent, and Longer Lasting Heat Waves in the 21st Century journal, August 2004

Anthropogenic influences on major tropical cyclone events journal, November 2018

Higher temperatures increase suicide rates in the United States and Mexico journal, July 2018

Impact of regional climate change on human health journal, November 2005

Investigating the climate impacts of urbanization and the potential for cool roofs to counter future climate change in Southern California journal, December 2016

Documentation for Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4) collection, January 2016

The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves journal, January 2004

Coupling a Single-Layer Urban Canopy Model with a Simple Atmospheric Model: Impact on Urban Heat Island Simulation for an Idealized Case journal, January 2004

Numerical Study of Convection Observed during the Winter Monsoon Experiment Using a Mesoscale Two-Dimensional Model journal, October 1989

A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 3 text, January 2008

Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmospheres: RRTM, a validated correlated-k model for the longwave journal, July 1997

Diagnosing conditional anthropogenic contributions to heavy Colorado rainfall in September 2013 journal, September 2017

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The Discomfort Index journal, April 1959

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A Hybrid Dynamical–Statistical Downscaling Technique. Part I: Development and Validation of the Technique journal, June 2015

Current and future impacts of extreme events in California journal, November 2011

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Incorporating an Urban Irrigation Module into the Noah Land Surface Model Coupled with an Urban Canopy Model journal, August 2014

Surrogate climate-change scenarios for regional climate models
journal, March 1996

Classifying heatwaves: developing health-based models to predict high-mortality versus moderate United States heatwaves
journal, August 2016

High-Resolution Coupled Climate Runoff Simulations of Seasonal Snowfall over Colorado: A Process Study of Current and Warmer Climate
journal, June 2011

Effects of Heat Stress on Construction Labor Productivity in Hong Kong: A Case Study of Rebar Workers
journal, September 2017

A scale and aerosol aware stochastic convective parameterization for weather and air quality modeling
journal, January 2014

Impacts of compound extreme weather events on ozone in the present and future
journal, January 2018

The vulnerability of global cities to climate hazards
journal, April 2007

Global and regional changes in exposure to extreme heat and the relative contributions of climate and population change
journal, March 2017

The integrated WRF/urban modelling system: development, evaluation, and applications to urban environmental problems
journal, January 2011

North American Regional Reanalysis
journal, March 2006

A Simple Single-Layer Urban Canopy Model For Atmospheric Models: Comparison With Multi-Layer And Slab Models
journal, December 2001

More Intense, More Frequent, and Longer Lasting Heat Waves in the 21st Century
journal, August 2004

Anthropogenic influences on major tropical cyclone events
journal, November 2018

Higher temperatures increase suicide rates in the United States and Mexico
journal, July 2018

Impact of regional climate change on human health
journal, November 2005

Investigating the climate impacts of urbanization and the potential for cool roofs to counter future climate change in Southern California
journal, December 2016

Documentation for Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4)
collection, January 2016

The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves
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Coupling a Single-Layer Urban Canopy Model with a Simple Atmospheric Model: Impact on Urban Heat Island Simulation for an Idealized Case
journal, January 2004

Numerical Study of Convection Observed during the Winter Monsoon Experiment Using a Mesoscale Two-Dimensional Model
journal, October 1989

A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 3
text, January 2008

Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmospheres: RRTM, a validated correlated-k model for the longwave
journal, July 1997

Diagnosing conditional anthropogenic contributions to heavy Colorado rainfall in September 2013
journal, September 2017

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journal, May 2014

A time-split nonhydrostatic atmospheric model for weather research and forecasting applications
journal, March 2008

Future population exposure to US heat extremes
journal, May 2015

National Urban Database and Access Portal Tool
journal, August 2009

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journal, September 2014

The Great 2006 Heat Wave over California and Nevada: Signal of an Increasing Trend
journal, December 2009

The Discomfort Index
journal, April 1959

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journal, March 2009

Impact of remotely sensed albedo and vegetation fraction on simulation of urban climate in WRF-urban canopy model: A case study of the urban heat island in Los Angeles: SATELLITE-SUPPORTED URBAN CLIMATE MODEL
journal, February 2016

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journal, October 2014

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journal, October 2017

A New Moist Turbulence Parameterization in the Community Atmosphere Model
journal, June 2009

Impact of heatwave on a megacity: an observational analysis of New York City during July 2016
journal, May 2017

A Hybrid Dynamical–Statistical Downscaling Technique. Part I: Development and Validation of the Technique
journal, June 2015

Current and future impacts of extreme events in California
journal, November 2011

Accuracy assessment of NLCD 2006 land cover and impervious surface
journal, March 2013

Incorporating an Urban Irrigation Module into the Noah Land Surface Model Coupled with an Urban Canopy Model
journal, August 2014