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Title: The Response of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones to Suppression of African Easterly Waves

Abstract

©2017. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) genesis is strongly linked with African easterly waves (AEWs) on the synoptic time scale. However, the TC-AEW relationship is unclear on interannual to climate time scales, and it is unknown whether AEWs are necessary to maintain climatological TC frequency, that is, whether TCs are limited by AEWs. We investigated the impact of AEW suppression on seasonal Atlantic TC activity using a 10-member ensemble of regional climate model simulations in which AEWs were either prescribed or removed through the lateral boundary condition. The climate model experiments produced no significant change in seasonal Atlantic TC number, indicating that AEWs are not necessary to maintain climatological basin-wide TC frequency even though TCs readily originate from these types of disturbances. This suggests that the specific type of “seedling” disturbance is unimportant for determining basin-wide seasonal Atlantic TC number and that in the absence of AEWs, TCs will generate by other mechanisms. The results imply that changes in the presence of AEWs may not be reliable predictors of seasonal variability and future change in Atlantic TC frequency.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1];  [2]; ORCiD logo [3]
  1. Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley CA USA
  2. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station TX USA
  3. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station TX USA; Department of Oceanography, Texas A&M University, College Station TX USA; Physical Oceanography Laboratory/Qingdao Collaborative Innovation Center of Marine Science and Technology, Ocean University of China, Qingdao China
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1563943
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1417006
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC02-05CH11231
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Geophysical Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 45; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

Citation Formats

Patricola, Christina M., Saravanan, R., and Chang, Ping. The Response of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones to Suppression of African Easterly Waves. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1002/2017GL076081.
Patricola, Christina M., Saravanan, R., & Chang, Ping. The Response of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones to Suppression of African Easterly Waves. United States. doi:10.1002/2017GL076081.
Patricola, Christina M., Saravanan, R., and Chang, Ping. Mon . "The Response of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones to Suppression of African Easterly Waves". United States. doi:10.1002/2017GL076081. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1563943.
@article{osti_1563943,
title = {The Response of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones to Suppression of African Easterly Waves},
author = {Patricola, Christina M. and Saravanan, R. and Chang, Ping},
abstractNote = {©2017. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) genesis is strongly linked with African easterly waves (AEWs) on the synoptic time scale. However, the TC-AEW relationship is unclear on interannual to climate time scales, and it is unknown whether AEWs are necessary to maintain climatological TC frequency, that is, whether TCs are limited by AEWs. We investigated the impact of AEW suppression on seasonal Atlantic TC activity using a 10-member ensemble of regional climate model simulations in which AEWs were either prescribed or removed through the lateral boundary condition. The climate model experiments produced no significant change in seasonal Atlantic TC number, indicating that AEWs are not necessary to maintain climatological basin-wide TC frequency even though TCs readily originate from these types of disturbances. This suggests that the specific type of “seedling” disturbance is unimportant for determining basin-wide seasonal Atlantic TC number and that in the absence of AEWs, TCs will generate by other mechanisms. The results imply that changes in the presence of AEWs may not be reliable predictors of seasonal variability and future change in Atlantic TC frequency.},
doi = {10.1002/2017GL076081},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = 1,
volume = 45,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {1}
}

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