Co-benefits of China’s climate policy for air quality and human health in China and transboundary regions in 2030
Abstract
Climate policies targeting CO2 emissions from fossil fuels can simultaneously reduce emissions of air pollutants and their precursors, thus mitigating air pollution and associated health impacts. Previous work has examined co-benefits of climate policy from reducing PM2.5 in rapidly-developing countries such as China, but have not examined co-benefits from ozone and its transboundary impact for both PM2.5 and ozone. Here, we compare the air quality and health co-benefits of China's climate policy on both PM2.5 and ozone in China to their co-benefits in three downwind and populous countries (South Korea, Japan and the United States) using a coupled modeling framework. In a policy scenario consistent with China's pledge to peak CO2 emissions in approximately 2030, avoided premature deaths from ozone reductions are 54 300 (95% confidence interval: 37 100–71 000) in China in 2030, nearly 60% of those from PM2.5. Total avoided premature deaths in South Korea, Japan, and the US are 1200 (900–1600), 3500 (2800–4300), and 1900 (1400–2500), respectively. Total avoided deaths in South Korea and Japan are dominated by reductions in PM2.5-related mortality, but ozone plays a more important role in the US. Similar to co-benefits for PM2.5 in China, co-benefits of China's policy for ozone and formore »
- Authors:
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1562994
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1613752
- Grant/Contract Number:
- EI0003030; FG02-94ER61937
- Resource Type:
- Published Article
- Journal Name:
- Environmental Research Letters
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Environmental Research Letters Journal Volume: 14 Journal Issue: 8; Journal ID: ISSN 1748-9326
- Publisher:
- IOP Publishing
- Country of Publication:
- United Kingdom
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Citation Formats
Li, Mingwei, Zhang, Da, Li, Chiao-Ting, Selin, Noelle E., and Karplus, Valerie J. Co-benefits of China’s climate policy for air quality and human health in China and transboundary regions in 2030. United Kingdom: N. p., 2019.
Web. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab26ca.
Li, Mingwei, Zhang, Da, Li, Chiao-Ting, Selin, Noelle E., & Karplus, Valerie J. Co-benefits of China’s climate policy for air quality and human health in China and transboundary regions in 2030. United Kingdom. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab26ca.
Li, Mingwei, Zhang, Da, Li, Chiao-Ting, Selin, Noelle E., and Karplus, Valerie J. Mon .
"Co-benefits of China’s climate policy for air quality and human health in China and transboundary regions in 2030". United Kingdom. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab26ca.
@article{osti_1562994,
title = {Co-benefits of China’s climate policy for air quality and human health in China and transboundary regions in 2030},
author = {Li, Mingwei and Zhang, Da and Li, Chiao-Ting and Selin, Noelle E. and Karplus, Valerie J.},
abstractNote = {Climate policies targeting CO2 emissions from fossil fuels can simultaneously reduce emissions of air pollutants and their precursors, thus mitigating air pollution and associated health impacts. Previous work has examined co-benefits of climate policy from reducing PM2.5 in rapidly-developing countries such as China, but have not examined co-benefits from ozone and its transboundary impact for both PM2.5 and ozone. Here, we compare the air quality and health co-benefits of China's climate policy on both PM2.5 and ozone in China to their co-benefits in three downwind and populous countries (South Korea, Japan and the United States) using a coupled modeling framework. In a policy scenario consistent with China's pledge to peak CO2 emissions in approximately 2030, avoided premature deaths from ozone reductions are 54 300 (95% confidence interval: 37 100–71 000) in China in 2030, nearly 60% of those from PM2.5. Total avoided premature deaths in South Korea, Japan, and the US are 1200 (900–1600), 3500 (2800–4300), and 1900 (1400–2500), respectively. Total avoided deaths in South Korea and Japan are dominated by reductions in PM2.5-related mortality, but ozone plays a more important role in the US. Similar to co-benefits for PM2.5 in China, co-benefits of China's policy for ozone and for both pollutants in those downwind countries also rise with increasing policy stringency.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab26ca},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = 8,
volume = 14,
place = {United Kingdom},
year = {2019},
month = {7}
}
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab26ca
Works referenced in this record:
Co-benefits of mitigating global greenhouse gas emissions for future air quality and human health
journal, September 2013
- West, J. Jason; Smith, Steven J.; Silva, Raquel A.
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 3, Issue 10
Long-Term Ozone Exposure and Mortality
journal, March 2009
- Jerrett, Michael; Burnett, Richard T.; Pope, C. Arden
- New England Journal of Medicine, Vol. 360, Issue 11
Potential co-benefits of electrification for air quality, health, and CO2 mitigation in 2030 China
journal, May 2018
- Peng, Wei; Yang, Junnan; Lu, Xi
- Applied Energy, Vol. 218
Intercontinental Impacts of Ozone Pollution on Human Mortality
journal, September 2009
- Anenberg, Susan Casper; West, J. Jason; Fiore, Arlene M.
- Environmental Science & Technology, Vol. 43, Issue 17
Intercontinental influence of NOx and CO emissions on particulate matter air quality
journal, June 2011
- Leibensperger, Eric M.; Mickley, Loretta J.; Jacob, Daniel J.
- Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 45, Issue 19
Global estimates of mortality associated with long-term exposure to outdoor fine particulate matter
journal, September 2018
- Burnett, Richard; Chen, Hong; Szyszkowicz, Mieczysław
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 115, Issue 38
Seasonal and spatial variability of surface ozone over China: contributions from background and domestic pollution
journal, January 2011
- Wang, Y.; Zhang, Y.; Hao, J.
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 11, Issue 7
The contribution of outdoor air pollution sources to premature mortality on a global scale
journal, September 2015
- Lelieveld, J.; Evans, J. S.; Fnais, M.
- Nature, Vol. 525, Issue 7569
Increasing surface ozone concentrations in the background atmosphere of Southern China, 1994–2007
journal, January 2009
- Wang, T.; Wei, X. L.; Ding, A. J.
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 9, Issue 16
Simulation of the interannual variations of tropospheric ozone over China: Roles of variations in meteorological parameters and anthropogenic emissions
journal, December 2015
- Lou, Sijia; Liao, Hong; Yang, Yang
- Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 122
Modeling study of ozone seasonal cycle in lower troposphere over east Asia
journal, January 2007
- Li, Jie; Wang, Zifa; Akimoto, Hajime
- Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 112, Issue D22
HTAP2 multi-model estimates of premature human mortality due to intercontinental transport of air pollution and emission sectors
journal, January 2018
- Liang, Ciao-Kai; West, J. Jason; Silva, Raquel A.
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 18, Issue 14
Long-Term Ozone Exposure and Mortality in a Large Prospective Study
journal, May 2016
- Turner, Michelle C.; Jerrett, Michael; Pope, C. Arden
- American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Vol. 193, Issue 10
Asian influence on surface ozone in the United States: A comparison of chemistry, seasonality, and transport mechanisms
journal, January 2011
- Brown-Steiner, Benjamin; Hess, Peter
- Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 116, Issue D17
Effect of Health-Related Uncertainty and Natural Variability on Health Impacts and Cobenefits of Climate Policy
journal, December 2018
- Saari, Rebecca K.; Mei, Yufei; Monier, Erwan
- Environmental Science & Technology, Vol. 53, Issue 3
Climate and health impacts of US emissions reductions consistent with 2 °C
journal, February 2016
- Shindell, Drew T.; Lee, Yunha; Faluvegi, Greg
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 5
Impacts of intercontinental transport of anthropogenic fine particulate matter on human mortality
journal, March 2014
- Anenberg, Susan C.; West, J. Jason; Yu, Hongbin
- Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health, Vol. 7, Issue 3
Emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases over Asian regions during 2000–2008: Regional Emission inventory in ASia (REAS) version 2
journal, January 2013
- Kurokawa, J.; Ohara, T.; Morikawa, T.
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 13, Issue 21
Impacts of coal burning on ambient PM 2.5 pollution in China
journal, January 2017
- Ma, Qiao; Cai, Siyi; Wang, Shuxiao
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 17, Issue 7
Air quality resolution for health impact assessment: influence of regional characteristics
journal, January 2014
- Thompson, T. M.; Saari, R. K.; Selin, N. E.
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 14, Issue 2
Strong Dependence of U.S. Summertime Air Quality on the Decadal Variability of Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures:
journal, December 2017
- Shen, Lu; Mickley, Loretta J.; Leibensperger, Eric M.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 44, Issue 24
Evaluating a Space-Based Indicator of Surface Ozone-NO x -VOC Sensitivity Over Midlatitude Source Regions and Application to Decadal Trends : Space-Based Indicator of O
journal, October 2017
- Jin, Xiaomeng; Fiore, Arlene M.; Murray, Lee T.
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 122, Issue 19
Seasonal and spatial variability of the OM/OC mass ratios and high regional correlation between oxalic acid and zinc in Chinese urban organic aerosols
journal, January 2013
- Xing, L.; Fu, T. -M.; Cao, J. J.
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 13, Issue 8
Global Estimates of Fine Particulate Matter using a Combined Geophysical-Statistical Method with Information from Satellites, Models, and Monitors
journal, March 2016
- van Donkelaar, Aaron; Martin, Randall V.; Brauer, Michael
- Environmental Science & Technology, Vol. 50, Issue 7
Transpacific transport of ozone pollution and the effect of recent Asian emission increases on air quality in North America: an integrated analysis using satellite, aircraft, ozonesonde, and surface observations
journal, January 2008
- Zhang, L.; Jacob, D. J.; Boersma, K. F.
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 8, Issue 20
Transboundary health impacts of transported global air pollution and international trade
journal, March 2017
- Zhang, Qiang; Jiang, Xujia; Tong, Dan
- Nature, Vol. 543, Issue 7647
Trends in China's anthropogenic emissions since 2010 as the consequence of clean air actions
journal, January 2018
- Zheng, Bo; Tong, Dan; Li, Meng
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 18, Issue 19
Contributions of pollutants from North China Plain to surface ozone at the Shangdianzi GAW Station
journal, January 2008
- Lin, W.; Xu, X.; Zhang, X.
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 8, Issue 19
Air quality co-benefits of carbon pricing in China
journal, April 2018
- Li, Mingwei; Zhang, Da; Li, Chiao-Ting
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 8, Issue 5
Beyond the Environmental Kuznets Curve: Diffusion of Sulfur-Emissions-Abating Technology
journal, March 2005
- Stern, David I.
- The Journal of Environment & Development, Vol. 14, Issue 1
An Integrated Risk Function for Estimating the Global Burden of Disease Attributable to Ambient Fine Particulate Matter Exposure
journal, April 2014
- Burnett, Richard T.; Pope, C. Arden; Ezzati, Majid
- Environmental Health Perspectives, Vol. 122, Issue 4