Contributions of Internal Variability and External Forcing to the Recent Pacific Decadal Variations

Hua, Wenjian; Dai, Aiguo; Qin, Minhua

doi:10.1029/2018gl079033

Title: Contributions of Internal Variability and External Forcing to the Recent Pacific Decadal Variations

Journal Article · 03 July 2018 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl079033 · OSTI ID:1561341

^[1];

^[2];

^[1]

State Univ. of New York (SUNY), Albany, NY (United States); Nanjing Univ. of Information Science and Technology (China)
State Univ. of New York (SUNY), Albany, NY (United States)

There is substantial uncertainty in the relative contributions of internal variability and external forcing to the recent Pacific decadal variability, especially regarding their linkage with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. By analyzing observations and large ensembles of coupled climate model simulations, here we show that observed Pacific decadal variations since 1920 resulted primarily from internal variability, although greenhouse gas (GHG) and other external forcing did modulate decadal variations in Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) significantly, especially for the period since the early 1990s. Specifically, the GHG-induced warming and the recovery from the volcanic cooling caused by the 1991 Pinatubo eruption led to large warming in the tropical Pacific during 1993–2012, while recent anthropogenic aerosols contributed to Pacific regional SST variations on multiyear to decadal scales, causing a La Niña-like cooling pattern in the Pacific since 1998 in some of the models. Our results provide new evidence that both internal variability and external forcing have contributed to the recent decadal variations in Pacific SSTs since the early 1990s, although large uncertainties exist among the model-simulated effects of anthropogenic aerosols.

View Journal Article

Cite

Export

Save

Research Organization:: State Univ. of New York (SUNY), Albany, NY (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC)

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0012602

OSTI ID:: 1561341

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1460581; OSTI ID: 1539750

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, Issue 14; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Citation Metrics:

Cited by: 42 works

Citation information provided by
Web of Science

References (48)

Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus England, Matthew H.; McGregor, Shayne; Spence, Paul Nature Climate Change, Vol. 4, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2106	journal	February 2014
ENSO and greenhouse warming Cai, Wenju; Santoso, Agus; Wang, Guojian Nature Climate Change, Vol. 5, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2743	journal	August 2015
Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years Fyfe, John C.; Gillett, Nathan P.; Zwiers, Francis W. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 3, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1972	journal	August 2013
Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming Cai, Wenju; Borlace, Simon; Lengaigne, Matthieu Nature Climate Change, Vol. 4, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2100	journal	January 2014
The Role of Forcings in the Twentieth-Century North Atlantic Multidecadal Variability: The 1940–75 North Atlantic Cooling Case Study Bellucci, A.; Mariotti, A.; Gualdi, S. Journal of Climate, Vol. 30, Issue 18 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0301.1	journal	September 2017
Externally Forced and Internally Generated Decadal Climate Variability Associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation Meehl, Gerald A.; Hu, Aixue; Arblaster, Julie M. Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 18 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00548.1	journal	September 2013
The response of the climate system to the indirect effects of anthropogenic sulfate aerosol Williams, K. D.; Jones, A.; Roberts, D. L. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 17, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820100150	journal	August 2001
Tropical explosive volcanic eruptions can trigger El Niño by cooling tropical Africa Khodri, Myriam; Izumo, Takeshi; Vialard, Jérôme Nature Communications, Vol. 8, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-00755-6	journal	October 2017
The influence of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation on Temperature and Precipitation over the Globe Dong, Bo; Dai, Aiguo Climate Dynamics, Vol. 45, Issue 9-10 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2500-x	journal	February 2015
An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design Taylor, Karl E.; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Meehl, Gerald A. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 93, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1	journal	April 2012
Analyses of global sea surface temperature 1856-1991 Kaplan, Alexey; Cane, Mark A.; Kushnir, Yochanan Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Vol. 103, Issue C9 https://doi.org/10.1029/97JC01736	journal	August 1998
El Niño modulations over the past seven centuries Li, Jinbao; Xie, Shang-Ping; Cook, Edward R. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 3, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1936	journal	July 2013
Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability Booth, Ben B. B.; Dunstone, Nick J.; Halloran, Paul R. Nature, Vol. 484, Issue 7393 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10946	journal	April 2012
Have Aerosols Caused the Observed Atlantic Multidecadal Variability? Zhang, Rong; Delworth, Thomas L.; Sutton, Rowan Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 70, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-12-0331.1	journal	April 2013
How Would the Twenty-First-Century Warming Influence Pacific Decadal Variability and Its Connection to North American Rainfall: Assessment Based on a Revised Procedure for the IPO/PDO Xu, Yangyang; Hu, Aixue Journal of Climate, Vol. 31, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0319.1	journal	February 2018
Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: The HadCRUT4 data set: THE HADCRUT4 DATASET Morice, Colin P.; Kennedy, John J.; Rayner, Nick A. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 117, Issue D8 https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD017187	journal	April 2012
The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El Niño Collins, Mat; An, Soon-Il; Cai, Wenju Nature Geoscience, Vol. 3, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo868	journal	May 2010
Recent Walker circulation strengthening and Pacific cooling amplified by Atlantic warming McGregor, Shayne; Timmermann, Axel; Stuecker, Malte F. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 4, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2330	journal	August 2014
Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature, Version 5 (ERSSTv5): Upgrades, Validations, and Intercomparisons Huang, Boyin; Thorne, Peter W.; Banzon, Viva F. Journal of Climate, Vol. 30, Issue 20 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0836.1	journal	October 2017
The Mid-1970s Climate Shift in the Pacific and the Relative Roles of Forced versus Inherent Decadal Variability Meehl, Gerald A.; Hu, Aixue; Santer, Benjamin D. Journal of Climate, Vol. 22, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2552.1	journal	February 2009
Asymmetric Modulation of ENSO Teleconnections by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation Dong, Bo; Dai, Aiguo; Vuille, Mathias Journal of Climate, Vol. 31, Issue 18 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0663.1	journal	September 2018
Making sense of the early-2000s warming slowdown Fyfe, John C.; Meehl, Gerald A.; England, Matthew H. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2938	journal	February 2016
Sea Surface Temperature Variability: Patterns and Mechanisms Deser, Clara; Alexander, Michael A.; Xie, Shang-Ping Annual Review of Marine Science, Vol. 2, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-120408-151453	journal	January 2010
Decadal modulation of global surface temperature by internal climate variability Dai, Aiguo; Fyfe, John C.; Xie, Shang-Ping Nature Climate Change, Vol. 5, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2605	journal	April 2015
ENSO-like Interdecadal Variability: 1900–93 Zhang, Yuan; Wallace, John M.; Battisti, David S. Journal of Climate, Vol. 10, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<1004:ELIV>2.0.CO;2	journal	May 1997
A Tripole Index for the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation Henley, Benjamin J.; Gergis, Joelle; Karoly, David J. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 45, Issue 11-12 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2525-1	journal	March 2015
Role of volcanic and anthropogenic aerosols in the recent global surface warming slowdown Smith, Doug M.; Booth, Ben B. B.; Dunstone, Nick J. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3058	journal	June 2016
Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling Kosaka, Yu; Xie, Shang-Ping Nature, Vol. 501, Issue 7467 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12534	journal	August 2013
A Pacific Interdecadal Climate Oscillation with Impacts on Salmon Production Mantua, Nathan J.; Hare, Steven R.; Zhang, Yuan Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 78, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<1069:APICOW>2.0.CO;2	journal	June 1997
Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures Steinman, Byron A.; Mann, Michael E.; Miller, Sonya K. Science, Vol. 347, Issue 6225 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1257856	journal	February 2015
Spatial Patterns of Global Precipitation Change and Variability during 1901–2010 Gu, Guojun; Adler, Robert F. Journal of Climate, Vol. 28, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00201.1	journal	June 2015
Internally Generated and Externally Forced Multidecadal Oceanic Modes and Their Influence on the Summer Rainfall over East Asia Si, Dong; Hu, Aixue Journal of Climate, Vol. 30, Issue 20 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0065.1	journal	October 2017
Indian Ocean warming modulates Pacific climate change Luo, J. -J.; Sasaki, W.; Masumoto, Y. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 109, Issue 46 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1210239109	journal	October 2012
Centennial-Scale Sea Surface Temperature Analysis and Its Uncertainty Hirahara, Shoji; Ishii, Masayoshi; Fukuda, Yoshikazu Journal of Climate, Vol. 27, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00837.1	journal	January 2014
Connections Between Clouds, Radiation, and Midlatitude Dynamics: a Review Ceppi, Paulo; Hartmann, Dennis L. Current Climate Change Reports, Vol. 1, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-015-0010-x	journal	April 2015
Proxy evidence for an El Niño-like response to volcanic forcing Brad Adams, J.; Mann, Michael E.; Ammann, Caspar M. Nature, Vol. 426, Issue 6964 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02101	journal	November 2003
Volcanic contribution to decadal changes in tropospheric temperature Santer, Benjamin D.; Bonfils, Céline; Painter, Jeffrey F. Nature Geoscience, Vol. 7, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2098	journal	February 2014
Pacific trade winds accelerated by aerosol forcing over the past two decades Takahashi, Chiharu; Watanabe, Masahiro Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2996	journal	April 2016
Interhemispheric Aerosol Radiative Forcing and Tropical Precipitation Shifts during the Late Twentieth Century Allen, Robert J.; Evan, Amato T.; Booth, Ben B. B. Journal of Climate, Vol. 28, Issue 20 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0148.1	journal	October 2015
Recent observed and simulated warming Fyfe, John C.; Gillett, Nathan P. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 4, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2111	journal	February 2014
Effects of volcanism on tropical variability: EFFECTS OF VOLCANISM Maher, Nicola; McGregor, Shayne; England, Matthew H. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 42, Issue 14 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL064751	journal	July 2015
Changes of Pacific decadal variability in the twentieth century driven by internal variability, greenhouse gases, and aerosols Dong, Lu; Zhou, Tianjun; Chen, Xiaolong Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 41, Issue 23 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062269	journal	December 2014
The influence of the inter-decadal Pacific oscillation on US precipitation during 1923–2010 Dai, Aiguo Climate Dynamics, Vol. 41, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1446-5	journal	July 2012
Volcanic and Solar Forcing of the Tropical Pacific over the Past 1000 Years Mann, Michael E.; Cane, Mark A.; Zebiak, Stephen E. Journal of Climate, Vol. 18, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-3276.1	journal	February 2005
Have Aerosols Caused the Observed Atlantic Multidecadal Variability? Ting, Mingfang; Delworth, Thomas L.; Zhang, Rong Columbia University https://doi.org/10.7916/d89c778r	text	January 2013
Inter-decadal modulation of the impact of ENSO on Australia Power, S.; Casey, T.; Folland, C. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 15, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050284	journal	May 1999
May common model biases reduce CMIP5’s ability to simulate the recent Pacific La Niña-like cooling? Luo, Jing-Jia; Wang, Gang; Dommenget, Dietmar Climate Dynamics, Vol. 50, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3688-8	journal	April 2017
Influence of aerosols in multidecadal SST variability simulations over the North Pacific Boo, Kyung-On; Booth, Ben B. B.; Byun, Young-Hwa Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 120, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD021933	journal	January 2015

Cited By (5)

Understanding the inter‐decadal variability of autumn precipitation over North Central China using model simulations Qin, Minhua; Dai, Aiguo; Li, Dongliang International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 40, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6245	journal	July 2019
Coupled Model Biases Breed Spurious Low‐Frequency Variability in the Tropical Pacific Ocean Samanta, Dhrubajyoti; Karnauskas, Kristopher B.; Goodkin, Nathalie F. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, Issue 19 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl079455	journal	October 2018
An Externally Forced Decadal Rainfall Seesaw Pattern Over the Sahel and Southeast Amazon Hua, Wenjian; Dai, Aiguo; Zhou, Liming Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 46, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl081406	journal	January 2019
How accurately can the climate sensitivity to $$\hbox {CO}_{2}$$CO2 be estimated from historical climate change? Gregory, J. M.; Andrews, T.; Ceppi, P. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 54, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04991-y	journal	October 2019
The Theory of Parallel Climate Realizations: A New Framework of Ensemble Methods in a Changing Climate: An Overview Tél, T.; Bódai, T.; Drótos, G. Journal of Statistical Physics, Vol. 179, Issue 5-6 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10955-019-02445-7	journal	December 2019

Similar Records

Contributions of Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation to Global Ocean Heat Content Distribution

Journal Article · 2018 · Journal of Climate · OSTI ID:1541839

Hu, Zeyuan; Hu, Aixue; Hu, Yongyun

The footprint of the inter-decadal Pacific oscillation in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures

Journal Article · 2016 · Scientific Reports · OSTI ID:1253370

Dong, Lu; Zhou, Tianjun; Dai, Aiguo; +3 more

West African monsoon decadal variability and surface-related forcings: second West African Monsoon Modeling and Evaluation Project Experiment (WAMME II)

Journal Article · 2016 · Climate Dynamics · OSTI ID:1353352

Xue, Yongkang; De Sales, Fernando; Lau, William K. -M.; +27 more

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Geology

Title: Contributions of Internal Variability and External Forcing to the Recent Pacific Decadal Variations

Citation Formats

References (48)

Cited By (5)

Similar Records

Related Subjects