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Title: Water Sector Assumptions for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways in an Integrated Modeling Framework

Abstract

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) were created without explicit assumptions for the future of the water sector; so, projections of future water demands based on the SSPs often lack a treatment of water technology assumptions that is consistent with the SSP storylines. This report has developed a set of qualitative and quantitative assumptions for future water sector technological advancements in the agricultural, electricity, manufacturing, and municipal sectors within the SSPs, and then applied the resulting scenarios to an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) to permit analysis of future water demand in a water-constrained world. These scenarios are then compared to another set that excludes the adoption of water-efficient technologies. Water demand impacts of individual SSP assumption categories are analyzed to determine scenario-by-scenario changes. By 2100, global annual water demands range from 3560 km3 to 6600 km3. The results show that, 1) technological change in the water sector can act to reduce water demand in a water limited world by up to 32% in 2100 in the SSP scenarios; 2) the most sustainable scenario produces end-of-century water withdrawals lower than 2010 values; 3) low-income regions will likely be one of the largest drivers of future water demands and exhibit the greatest sensitivitymore » to highly-efficient water technologies; and 4) non-water sector SSP assumptions have significant and differing impacts on demands across SSP scenarios that act to alter global water demands.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2];  [3]; ORCiD logo [3];  [4];  [5];  [1];  [4]; ORCiD logo [4];  [4];  [4]; ORCiD logo [4]
  1. Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
  2. Univ. of Alberta, Edmonton, AB (Canada)
  3. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
  4. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
  5. Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Basic Energy Sciences (BES) (SC-22); National Science Foundation (NSF)
OSTI Identifier:
1561113
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1470791
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-126476
Journal ID: ISSN 0043-1397
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Water Resources Research
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 54; Journal Issue: 9; Journal ID: ISSN 0043-1397
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Shared Socioeconomic Pathways; water demand; GCAM; water constraints

Citation Formats

Graham, Neal T., Davies, Evan G. R., Hejazi, Mohamad I., Calvin, Katherine, Kim, Son H., Helinski, Lauren, Miralles-Wilhelm, Fernando R., Clarke, Leon, Kyle, Gordon Page, Patel, Pralit, Wise, Marshall A., and Vernon, Chris R. Water Sector Assumptions for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways in an Integrated Modeling Framework. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1029/2018WR023452.
Graham, Neal T., Davies, Evan G. R., Hejazi, Mohamad I., Calvin, Katherine, Kim, Son H., Helinski, Lauren, Miralles-Wilhelm, Fernando R., Clarke, Leon, Kyle, Gordon Page, Patel, Pralit, Wise, Marshall A., & Vernon, Chris R. Water Sector Assumptions for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways in an Integrated Modeling Framework. United States. doi:10.1029/2018WR023452.
Graham, Neal T., Davies, Evan G. R., Hejazi, Mohamad I., Calvin, Katherine, Kim, Son H., Helinski, Lauren, Miralles-Wilhelm, Fernando R., Clarke, Leon, Kyle, Gordon Page, Patel, Pralit, Wise, Marshall A., and Vernon, Chris R. Fri . "Water Sector Assumptions for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways in an Integrated Modeling Framework". United States. doi:10.1029/2018WR023452. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1561113.
@article{osti_1561113,
title = {Water Sector Assumptions for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways in an Integrated Modeling Framework},
author = {Graham, Neal T. and Davies, Evan G. R. and Hejazi, Mohamad I. and Calvin, Katherine and Kim, Son H. and Helinski, Lauren and Miralles-Wilhelm, Fernando R. and Clarke, Leon and Kyle, Gordon Page and Patel, Pralit and Wise, Marshall A. and Vernon, Chris R.},
abstractNote = {The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) were created without explicit assumptions for the future of the water sector; so, projections of future water demands based on the SSPs often lack a treatment of water technology assumptions that is consistent with the SSP storylines. This report has developed a set of qualitative and quantitative assumptions for future water sector technological advancements in the agricultural, electricity, manufacturing, and municipal sectors within the SSPs, and then applied the resulting scenarios to an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) to permit analysis of future water demand in a water-constrained world. These scenarios are then compared to another set that excludes the adoption of water-efficient technologies. Water demand impacts of individual SSP assumption categories are analyzed to determine scenario-by-scenario changes. By 2100, global annual water demands range from 3560 km3 to 6600 km3. The results show that, 1) technological change in the water sector can act to reduce water demand in a water limited world by up to 32% in 2100 in the SSP scenarios; 2) the most sustainable scenario produces end-of-century water withdrawals lower than 2010 values; 3) low-income regions will likely be one of the largest drivers of future water demands and exhibit the greatest sensitivity to highly-efficient water technologies; and 4) non-water sector SSP assumptions have significant and differing impacts on demands across SSP scenarios that act to alter global water demands.},
doi = {10.1029/2018WR023452},
journal = {Water Resources Research},
number = 9,
volume = 54,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {8}
}

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Figures / Tables:

Table 1 Table 1: A comparison of previous studies which have looked at technological change with the SSPs and the resulting effects on future water demands

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    Works referencing / citing this record:

    GCAM v5.1: representing the linkages between energy, water, land, climate, and economic systems
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