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Title: A Review of the Role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and Associated Climate Impacts

Abstract

By synthesizing recent studies employing a wide range of approaches (modern observations, paleo reconstructions, and climate model simulations), this paper provides a comprehensive review of the linkage between multidecadal Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) variability and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) and associated climate impacts. There is strong observational and modeling evidence that multidecadal AMOC variability is a crucial driver of the observed AMV and associated climate impacts and an important source of enhanced decadal predictability and prediction skill. The AMOC-AMV linkage is consistent with observed key elements of AMV. Furthermore, this synthesis also points to a leading role of the AMOC in a range of AMV-related climate phenomena having enormous societal and economic implications, for example, Intertropical Convergence Zone shifts; Sahel and Indian monsoons; Atlantic hurricanes; El Niño–Southern Oscillation; Pacific Decadal Variability; North Atlantic Oscillation; climate over Europe, North America, and Asia; Arctic sea ice and surface air temperature; and hemispheric-scale surface temperature. Paleoclimate evidence indicates that a similar linkage between multidecadal AMOC variability and AMV and many associated climate impacts may also have existed in the preindustrial era, that AMV has enhanced multidecadal power significantly above a red noise background, and that AMV is not primarily driven by externalmore » forcing. The role of the AMOC in AMV and associated climate impacts has been underestimated in most state-of-the-art climate models, posing significant challenges but also great opportunities for substantial future improvements in understanding and predicting AMV and associated climate impacts.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [3]; ORCiD logo [4]; ORCiD logo [5]; ORCiD logo [3]; ORCiD logo [6]; ORCiD logo [7]
  1. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics LaboratoryNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Princeton NJ USA
  2. National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of MeteorologyUniversity of Reading Reading UK
  3. Climate and Global Dynamics LaboratoryNational Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USA
  4. Physical Oceanography DepartmentWoods Hole Oceanographic Institution Woods Hole MA USA
  5. School of Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography CentreUniversity of Southampton Southampton UK
  6. School of Oceanography and Department of Atmospheric SciencesUniversity of Washington Seattle WA USA
  7. Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc. Lexington MA USA
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Woods Hole Oceanographic Inst., Woods Hole, MA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
OSTI Identifier:
1560164
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1560171; OSTI ID: 1613250
Grant/Contract Number:  
SC0019492
Resource Type:
Published Article
Journal Name:
Reviews of Geophysics (1985)
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Reviews of Geophysics (1985) Journal Volume: 57 Journal Issue: 2; Journal ID: ISSN 8755-1209
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Geochemistry & Geophysics

Citation Formats

Zhang, Rong, Sutton, Rowan, Danabasoglu, Gokhan, Kwon, Young‐Oh, Marsh, Robert, Yeager, Stephen G., Amrhein, Daniel E., and Little, Christopher M. A Review of the Role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and Associated Climate Impacts. United States: N. p., 2019. Web. doi:10.1029/2019RG000644.
Zhang, Rong, Sutton, Rowan, Danabasoglu, Gokhan, Kwon, Young‐Oh, Marsh, Robert, Yeager, Stephen G., Amrhein, Daniel E., & Little, Christopher M. A Review of the Role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and Associated Climate Impacts. United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019RG000644
Zhang, Rong, Sutton, Rowan, Danabasoglu, Gokhan, Kwon, Young‐Oh, Marsh, Robert, Yeager, Stephen G., Amrhein, Daniel E., and Little, Christopher M. Fri . "A Review of the Role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and Associated Climate Impacts". United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019RG000644.
@article{osti_1560164,
title = {A Review of the Role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and Associated Climate Impacts},
author = {Zhang, Rong and Sutton, Rowan and Danabasoglu, Gokhan and Kwon, Young‐Oh and Marsh, Robert and Yeager, Stephen G. and Amrhein, Daniel E. and Little, Christopher M.},
abstractNote = {By synthesizing recent studies employing a wide range of approaches (modern observations, paleo reconstructions, and climate model simulations), this paper provides a comprehensive review of the linkage between multidecadal Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) variability and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) and associated climate impacts. There is strong observational and modeling evidence that multidecadal AMOC variability is a crucial driver of the observed AMV and associated climate impacts and an important source of enhanced decadal predictability and prediction skill. The AMOC-AMV linkage is consistent with observed key elements of AMV. Furthermore, this synthesis also points to a leading role of the AMOC in a range of AMV-related climate phenomena having enormous societal and economic implications, for example, Intertropical Convergence Zone shifts; Sahel and Indian monsoons; Atlantic hurricanes; El Niño–Southern Oscillation; Pacific Decadal Variability; North Atlantic Oscillation; climate over Europe, North America, and Asia; Arctic sea ice and surface air temperature; and hemispheric-scale surface temperature. Paleoclimate evidence indicates that a similar linkage between multidecadal AMOC variability and AMV and many associated climate impacts may also have existed in the preindustrial era, that AMV has enhanced multidecadal power significantly above a red noise background, and that AMV is not primarily driven by external forcing. The role of the AMOC in AMV and associated climate impacts has been underestimated in most state-of-the-art climate models, posing significant challenges but also great opportunities for substantial future improvements in understanding and predicting AMV and associated climate impacts.},
doi = {10.1029/2019RG000644},
journal = {Reviews of Geophysics (1985)},
number = 2,
volume = 57,
place = {United States},
year = {2019},
month = {6}
}

Journal Article:
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https://doi.org/10.1029/2019RG000644

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