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Title: Integrated Modeling Approach for the Development of Climate-Informed, Actionable Information

Abstract

Flooding is a prevalent natural disaster with both short and long-term social, economic, and infrastructure impacts. Changes in intensity and frequency of precipitation (including rain, snow, and rain on snow) events create challenges for the planning and management of resilient infrastructure and communities. While there is general acknowledgement that new infrastructure design should account for future climate change, no clear methods or actionable information is available to community planners and designers to ensure resilient design considering an uncertain climate future. This research used climate projections to drive high-resolution hydrology and flood models to evaluate social, economic, and infrastructure resilience for the Snohomish Watershed, WA, U.S.A. The proposed model chain has been calibrated and validated. Based on the established model chain, the peaks of precipitation and streamflows were found to shift from spring and summer to earlier winter season. The nonstationarity of peak discharges was discovered with more frequent and severe flood risks projected. The peak discharges were also projected to decrease for a certain period in the near future, which might be due to the reduced rain-on-snow events. This research was expected to provide a clear method for the incorporation of climate science in flood resilience analysis and to alsomore » provide actionable information relative to the frequency and intensity of future precipitation events.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [1]; ORCiD logo [1];  [1]
  1. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1560144
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-134615
Journal ID: ISSN 2073-4441; WATEGH
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Water (Basel)
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Water (Basel); Journal Volume: 10; Journal Issue: 6; Journal ID: ISSN 2073-4441
Publisher:
MDPI
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; climate change; flood; climate projections; integrated modeling; flood modeling; non-stationarity

Citation Formats

Judi, David, Rakowski, Cynthia L., Waichler, Scott R., Feng, Youcan, and Wigmosta, Mark S. Integrated Modeling Approach for the Development of Climate-Informed, Actionable Information. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.3390/w10060775.
Judi, David, Rakowski, Cynthia L., Waichler, Scott R., Feng, Youcan, & Wigmosta, Mark S. Integrated Modeling Approach for the Development of Climate-Informed, Actionable Information. United States. doi:10.3390/w10060775.
Judi, David, Rakowski, Cynthia L., Waichler, Scott R., Feng, Youcan, and Wigmosta, Mark S. Wed . "Integrated Modeling Approach for the Development of Climate-Informed, Actionable Information". United States. doi:10.3390/w10060775. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1560144.
@article{osti_1560144,
title = {Integrated Modeling Approach for the Development of Climate-Informed, Actionable Information},
author = {Judi, David and Rakowski, Cynthia L. and Waichler, Scott R. and Feng, Youcan and Wigmosta, Mark S.},
abstractNote = {Flooding is a prevalent natural disaster with both short and long-term social, economic, and infrastructure impacts. Changes in intensity and frequency of precipitation (including rain, snow, and rain on snow) events create challenges for the planning and management of resilient infrastructure and communities. While there is general acknowledgement that new infrastructure design should account for future climate change, no clear methods or actionable information is available to community planners and designers to ensure resilient design considering an uncertain climate future. This research used climate projections to drive high-resolution hydrology and flood models to evaluate social, economic, and infrastructure resilience for the Snohomish Watershed, WA, U.S.A. The proposed model chain has been calibrated and validated. Based on the established model chain, the peaks of precipitation and streamflows were found to shift from spring and summer to earlier winter season. The nonstationarity of peak discharges was discovered with more frequent and severe flood risks projected. The peak discharges were also projected to decrease for a certain period in the near future, which might be due to the reduced rain-on-snow events. This research was expected to provide a clear method for the incorporation of climate science in flood resilience analysis and to also provide actionable information relative to the frequency and intensity of future precipitation events.},
doi = {10.3390/w10060775},
journal = {Water (Basel)},
number = 6,
volume = 10,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {6}
}

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