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Title: Network Modeling of the U.S. Petrochemical Industry under Raw Material and Hurricane Harvey Disruptions

Abstract

A geographically resolved network model of the U.S. chemical industry in 2017 is designed, and optimal chemical flows between units are calculated using linear programming. A baseline solution and three disruption scenarios (primary raw material disruptions, reported Hurricane Harvey ethylene cracker disruptions, and assumed capacity disruptions based on the Hurricane Harvey geographic storm track) are reported on to determine how the structure of the industry is modified to adapt to widespread and geographically specific disruptions. The calculated impacts of the assumed Hurricane Harvey disruption include 170 chemical units in 26 states that change production level as a result of supply chain disruptions during the storm. The systemic impact for the assumed Hurricane Harvey disruption is 19.3 million tonnes of gross chemical production. The day with the largest impact on gross chemical production shows a reduction from baseline operations of 1.3 million tonnes (42% of baseline). This model can be utilized for analysis of future disruption scenarios and to test resilience strategies, including impacts of new manufacturing configurations or technologies.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1];  [2];  [2];  [2];  [2]; ORCiD logo [2]
  1. Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
  2. Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), Office of Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation
OSTI Identifier:
1559561
Report Number(s):
SAND-2019-6833J
Journal ID: ISSN 0888-5885; 676504
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC04-94AL85000; NA0003525
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Industrial and Engineering Chemistry Research
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 58; Journal Issue: 28; Journal ID: ISSN 0888-5885
Publisher:
American Chemical Society (ACS)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
02 PETROLEUM; chemical manufacturing; supply chain; linear program; ethylene; natural disaster

Citation Formats

DeRosa, Sean E., Kimura, Yosuke, Stadtherr, Mark A., McGaughey, Gary, McDonald-Buller, Elena, and Allen, David T.. Network Modeling of the U.S. Petrochemical Industry under Raw Material and Hurricane Harvey Disruptions. United States: N. p., 2019. Web. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.iecr.9b01035.
DeRosa, Sean E., Kimura, Yosuke, Stadtherr, Mark A., McGaughey, Gary, McDonald-Buller, Elena, & Allen, David T.. Network Modeling of the U.S. Petrochemical Industry under Raw Material and Hurricane Harvey Disruptions. United States. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.iecr.9b01035
DeRosa, Sean E., Kimura, Yosuke, Stadtherr, Mark A., McGaughey, Gary, McDonald-Buller, Elena, and Allen, David T.. Mon . "Network Modeling of the U.S. Petrochemical Industry under Raw Material and Hurricane Harvey Disruptions". United States. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.iecr.9b01035. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1559561.
@article{osti_1559561,
title = {Network Modeling of the U.S. Petrochemical Industry under Raw Material and Hurricane Harvey Disruptions},
author = {DeRosa, Sean E. and Kimura, Yosuke and Stadtherr, Mark A. and McGaughey, Gary and McDonald-Buller, Elena and Allen, David T.},
abstractNote = {A geographically resolved network model of the U.S. chemical industry in 2017 is designed, and optimal chemical flows between units are calculated using linear programming. A baseline solution and three disruption scenarios (primary raw material disruptions, reported Hurricane Harvey ethylene cracker disruptions, and assumed capacity disruptions based on the Hurricane Harvey geographic storm track) are reported on to determine how the structure of the industry is modified to adapt to widespread and geographically specific disruptions. The calculated impacts of the assumed Hurricane Harvey disruption include 170 chemical units in 26 states that change production level as a result of supply chain disruptions during the storm. The systemic impact for the assumed Hurricane Harvey disruption is 19.3 million tonnes of gross chemical production. The day with the largest impact on gross chemical production shows a reduction from baseline operations of 1.3 million tonnes (42% of baseline). This model can be utilized for analysis of future disruption scenarios and to test resilience strategies, including impacts of new manufacturing configurations or technologies.},
doi = {10.1021/acs.iecr.9b01035},
journal = {Industrial and Engineering Chemistry Research},
number = 28,
volume = 58,
place = {United States},
year = {2019},
month = {7}
}

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