Increasing Magnitude of Hurricane Rapid Intensification in the Central and Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Hurricanes and Rapid Intesnification

Balaguru, Karthik; Foltz, Gregory R.; Leung, Lai-Yung

doi:10.1029/2018GL077597

Title: Increasing Magnitude of Hurricane Rapid Intensification in the Central and Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Hurricanes and Rapid Intesnification

Journal Article · 03 May 2018 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL077597 · OSTI ID:1559277

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Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Lab., Miami, FL (United States)

Rapid Intensification (RI) of hurricanes is notoriously difficult to predict and can contribute to severe destruction and loss of life. While past studies examined the frequency of RI occurrence, changes in RI magnitude were not considered. Here we explore changes in RI magnitude over the 30-year satellite period of 1986-2015. In the central and eastern tropical Atlantic, which includes much of the main development region, the 95th percentile of 24-hr intensity changes increased at 3.8 knots per decade. In the western tropical Atlantic, encompassing the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, trends are insignificant. Our analysis reveals that warming of the upper-ocean coinciding with the positive phase of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and associated changes in the large-scale environment, have predominantly favored RI magnitude increases in the central and eastern tropical Atlantic. These results have substantial implications for the eastern Caribbean Islands, some of which were devastated during the 2017 hurricane season.

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Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1559277

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA--133854

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: 9 Vol. 45; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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