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Title: Increasing Magnitude of Hurricane Rapid Intensification in the Central and Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Hurricanes and Rapid Intesnification

Abstract

Rapid Intensification (RI) of hurricanes is notoriously difficult to predict and can contribute to severe destruction and loss of life. While past studies examined the frequency of RI occurrence, changes in RI magnitude were not considered. Here we explore changes in RI magnitude over the 30-year satellite period of 1986-2015. In the central and eastern tropical Atlantic, which includes much of the main development region, the 95th percentile of 24-hr intensity changes increased at 3.8 knots per decade. In the western tropical Atlantic, encompassing the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, trends are insignificant. Our analysis reveals that warming of the upper-ocean coinciding with the positive phase of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and associated changes in the large-scale environment, have predominantly favored RI magnitude increases in the central and eastern tropical Atlantic. These results have substantial implications for the eastern Caribbean Islands, some of which were devastated during the 2017 hurricane season.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [1]
  1. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
  2. Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Lab., Miami, FL (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)
OSTI Identifier:
1559277
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1435879
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-133854
Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Geophysical Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 45; Journal Issue: 9; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION

Citation Formats

Balaguru, Karthik, Foltz, Gregory R., and Leung, Lai-Yung. Increasing Magnitude of Hurricane Rapid Intensification in the Central and Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Hurricanes and Rapid Intesnification. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1029/2018GL077597.
Balaguru, Karthik, Foltz, Gregory R., & Leung, Lai-Yung. Increasing Magnitude of Hurricane Rapid Intensification in the Central and Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Hurricanes and Rapid Intesnification. United States. doi:10.1029/2018GL077597.
Balaguru, Karthik, Foltz, Gregory R., and Leung, Lai-Yung. Thu . "Increasing Magnitude of Hurricane Rapid Intensification in the Central and Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Hurricanes and Rapid Intesnification". United States. doi:10.1029/2018GL077597. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1559277.
@article{osti_1559277,
title = {Increasing Magnitude of Hurricane Rapid Intensification in the Central and Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Hurricanes and Rapid Intesnification},
author = {Balaguru, Karthik and Foltz, Gregory R. and Leung, Lai-Yung},
abstractNote = {Rapid Intensification (RI) of hurricanes is notoriously difficult to predict and can contribute to severe destruction and loss of life. While past studies examined the frequency of RI occurrence, changes in RI magnitude were not considered. Here we explore changes in RI magnitude over the 30-year satellite period of 1986-2015. In the central and eastern tropical Atlantic, which includes much of the main development region, the 95th percentile of 24-hr intensity changes increased at 3.8 knots per decade. In the western tropical Atlantic, encompassing the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, trends are insignificant. Our analysis reveals that warming of the upper-ocean coinciding with the positive phase of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and associated changes in the large-scale environment, have predominantly favored RI magnitude increases in the central and eastern tropical Atlantic. These results have substantial implications for the eastern Caribbean Islands, some of which were devastated during the 2017 hurricane season.},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL077597},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = 9,
volume = 45,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {5}
}

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Cited by: 9 works
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