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Title: Evaluating Uncertainties in Marine Biogeochemical Models: Benchmarking Aerosol Precursors

Abstract

The effort to accurately estimate global radiative forcing has long been hampered by a degree of uncertainty in the tropospheric aerosol contribution. Reducing uncertainty in natural aerosol processes, the baseline of the aerosol budget, thus becomes a fundamental task. The appropriate representation of aerosols in the marine boundary layer (MBL) is essential to reduce uncertainty and provide reliable information on offsets to global warming. We developed an International Ocean Model Benchmarking package to assess marine biogeochemical process representations in Earth System Models (ESMs), and the package was employed to evaluate surface ocean concentrations and the sea–air fluxes of dimethylsulfide (DMS). Model performances were scored based on how well they captured the distribution and variability contained in high-quality observational datasets. Results show that model-data biases increased as DMS enters the MBL, but unfortunately over three-quarters of the models participating in the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) did not have a dynamic representation of DMS. When it is present, models tend to over-predict sea surface concentrations in the productive region of the eastern tropical Pacific by almost a factor of two, and the sea–air fluxes by a factor of three. Systematic model-data benchmarking as described here will help to identify suchmore » deficiencies and subsequently lead to improved subgrid-scale parameterizations and ESM development.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2];  [3];  [4]; ORCiD logo [5];  [1]; ORCiD logo [6]
  1. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
  2. Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
  3. New Mexico Inst. of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM (United States)
  4. Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States)
  5. Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States)
  6. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC). Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)
OSTI Identifier:
1557764
Report Number(s):
LA-UR-19-21266
Journal ID: ISSN 2073-4433; ATMOCZ
Grant/Contract Number:  
89233218CNA000001; AC05-00OR22725
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Atmosphere (Basel)
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Atmosphere (Basel); Journal Volume: 9; Journal Issue: 5; Journal ID: ISSN 2073-4433
Publisher:
MDPI
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
58 GEOSCIENCES; Earth Sciences; biogeochemistry; benchmarking; biogenic volatile organic compounds; dissolved organic carbon; sea-air flux; marine aerosols

Citation Formats

Ogunro, Oluwaseun O., Elliott, Scott M., Wingenter, Oliver W., Deal, Clara, Fu, Weiwei, Collier, Nathan, and Hoffman, Forrest M. Evaluating Uncertainties in Marine Biogeochemical Models: Benchmarking Aerosol Precursors. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.3390/atmos9050184.
Ogunro, Oluwaseun O., Elliott, Scott M., Wingenter, Oliver W., Deal, Clara, Fu, Weiwei, Collier, Nathan, & Hoffman, Forrest M. Evaluating Uncertainties in Marine Biogeochemical Models: Benchmarking Aerosol Precursors. United States. doi:10.3390/atmos9050184.
Ogunro, Oluwaseun O., Elliott, Scott M., Wingenter, Oliver W., Deal, Clara, Fu, Weiwei, Collier, Nathan, and Hoffman, Forrest M. Sat . "Evaluating Uncertainties in Marine Biogeochemical Models: Benchmarking Aerosol Precursors". United States. doi:10.3390/atmos9050184. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1557764.
@article{osti_1557764,
title = {Evaluating Uncertainties in Marine Biogeochemical Models: Benchmarking Aerosol Precursors},
author = {Ogunro, Oluwaseun O. and Elliott, Scott M. and Wingenter, Oliver W. and Deal, Clara and Fu, Weiwei and Collier, Nathan and Hoffman, Forrest M.},
abstractNote = {The effort to accurately estimate global radiative forcing has long been hampered by a degree of uncertainty in the tropospheric aerosol contribution. Reducing uncertainty in natural aerosol processes, the baseline of the aerosol budget, thus becomes a fundamental task. The appropriate representation of aerosols in the marine boundary layer (MBL) is essential to reduce uncertainty and provide reliable information on offsets to global warming. We developed an International Ocean Model Benchmarking package to assess marine biogeochemical process representations in Earth System Models (ESMs), and the package was employed to evaluate surface ocean concentrations and the sea–air fluxes of dimethylsulfide (DMS). Model performances were scored based on how well they captured the distribution and variability contained in high-quality observational datasets. Results show that model-data biases increased as DMS enters the MBL, but unfortunately over three-quarters of the models participating in the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) did not have a dynamic representation of DMS. When it is present, models tend to over-predict sea surface concentrations in the productive region of the eastern tropical Pacific by almost a factor of two, and the sea–air fluxes by a factor of three. Systematic model-data benchmarking as described here will help to identify such deficiencies and subsequently lead to improved subgrid-scale parameterizations and ESM development.},
doi = {10.3390/atmos9050184},
journal = {Atmosphere (Basel)},
number = 5,
volume = 9,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {5}
}

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