The vulnerabilities of agricultural land and food production to future water scarcity
- Univ. of Aberdeen, Scotland (United Kingdom)
- Univ. of Edinburgh, Edinburgh (United Kingdom); Univ. of Edinburgh, Midlothian (United Kingdom)
- Univ. of Reading, Reading (United Kingdom)
- Univ. of Cambridge (United Kingdom)
- Pacific Northwest National Lab., College Park, MD (United States)
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (The Netherlands)
- Univ. of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN (United States)
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria)
- National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba (Japan)
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, St. Lucia, QLD (Australia)
- Wageningen Univ. and Research Centre, The Hague (The Netherlands)
- Univ. of Exeter, Exeter (United Kingdom)
- U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Washington, D.C. (United States)
Rapidly increasing populations coupled with increased food demand requires either an expansion of agricultural land or sufficient production gains from current resources. However, in a changing world, reduced water availability might undermine improvements in crop and grass productivity and may disproportionately affect different parts of the world. Using multi-model studies, the potential trends, risks and uncertainties to land use and land availability that may arise from reductions in water availability are examined here. In addition, the impacts of different policy interventions on pressures from emerging risks are examined. Results indicate that globally, approximately 11% and 10% of current crop- and grass-lands could be vulnerable to reduction in water availability and may lose some productive capacity, with Africa and the Middle East, China, Europe and Asia particularly at risk. While uncertainties remain, reduction in agricultural land area associated with dietary changes (reduction of food waste and decreased meat consumption) offers the greatest buffer against land loss and food insecurity.
- Research Organization:
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830
- OSTI ID:
- 1557674
- Alternate ID(s):
- OSTI ID: 1561114
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-SA--134809
- Journal Information:
- Global Environmental Change, Journal Name: Global Environmental Change Journal Issue: C Vol. 58; ISSN 0959-3780
- Publisher:
- ElsevierCopyright Statement
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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