The vulnerabilities of agricultural land and food production to future water scarcity

Fitton, N.; Alexander, P.; Arnell, N.; Bajzelj, B.; Calvin, K.; Doelman, J.; Gerber, J. S.; Havlik, P.; Hasegawa, T.; Herrero, M.; Krisztin, T.; van Meijl, H.; Powell, T.; Sands, R.; Stehfest, E.; West, P. C.; Smith, P.

doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.101944

Title: The vulnerabilities of agricultural land and food production to future water scarcity

Journal Article · 18 July 2019 · Global Environmental Change

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.101944 · OSTI ID:1557674

^[1];

^[2]; Arnell, N. ^[3]; Bajzelj, B. ^[4];

^[5];

^[6]; Gerber, J. S. ^[7]; Havlik, P. ^[8]; Hasegawa, T. ^[9]; Herrero, M. ^[10]; Krisztin, T. ^[8]; van Meijl, H. ^[11]; Powell, T. ^[12]; Sands, R. ^[13]; Stehfest, E. ^[6];

^[7]; Smith, P. ^[1]

Univ. of Aberdeen, Scotland (United Kingdom)
Univ. of Edinburgh, Edinburgh (United Kingdom); Univ. of Edinburgh, Midlothian (United Kingdom)
Univ. of Reading, Reading (United Kingdom)
Univ. of Cambridge (United Kingdom)
Pacific Northwest National Lab., College Park, MD (United States)
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (The Netherlands)
Univ. of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN (United States)
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria)
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba (Japan)
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, St. Lucia, QLD (Australia)
Wageningen Univ. and Research Centre, The Hague (The Netherlands)
Univ. of Exeter, Exeter (United Kingdom)
U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Washington, D.C. (United States)

Rapidly increasing populations coupled with increased food demand requires either an expansion of agricultural land or sufficient production gains from current resources. However, in a changing world, reduced water availability might undermine improvements in crop and grass productivity and may disproportionately affect different parts of the world. Using multi-model studies, the potential trends, risks and uncertainties to land use and land availability that may arise from reductions in water availability are examined here. In addition, the impacts of different policy interventions on pressures from emerging risks are examined. Results indicate that globally, approximately 11% and 10% of current crop- and grass-lands could be vulnerable to reduction in water availability and may lose some productive capacity, with Africa and the Middle East, China, Europe and Asia particularly at risk. While uncertainties remain, reduction in agricultural land area associated with dietary changes (reduction of food waste and decreased meat consumption) offers the greatest buffer against land loss and food insecurity.

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Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1557674

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1561114

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA--134809

Journal Information:: Global Environmental Change, Journal Name: Global Environmental Change Journal Issue: C Vol. 58; ISSN 0959-3780

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Integrated Solutions for the Water-Energy-Land Nexus: Are Global Models Rising to the Challenge? Johnson, Nils; Burek, Peter; Byers, Edward Water, Vol. 11, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.3390/w11112223	journal	October 2019
National Land Use Policy against the Misuse of the Agricultural Land—Causes and Effects. Evidence from Poland Źróbek-Różańska, Alina; Zielińska-Szczepkowska, Joanna Sustainability, Vol. 11, Issue 22 https://doi.org/10.3390/su11226403	journal	November 2019
Integrated Solutions for the Water-Energy-Land Nexus: Are Global Models Rising to the Challenge? Johnson, Nils; Burek, Peter; Byers, Edward Basel : MDPI https://doi.org/10.34657/9085	text	January 2019

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