First forcing estimates from the future CMIP6 scenarios ofanthropogenic aerosol optical properties and an associated Twomeyeffect

Fiedler, Stephanie; Stevens, Bjorn; Gidden, Matthew; Smith, Steven J.; Riahi, Keywan; van Vuuren, Detlef

doi:10.5194/gmd-2018-244

Title: First forcing estimates from the future CMIP6 scenarios ofanthropogenic aerosol optical properties and an associated Twomeyeffect

Full Record
Other Related Research

Abstract

We present the first forcing interpretation of the future anthropogenic aerosol scenarios of CMIP6 with the simple plumes parameterisation MACv2-SP. The nine scenarios for 2015 to 2100 are based on SO₂ and NH₃ emissions for use in CMIP6 (Riahi et al., 2017; Gidden et al., in prep.). We use the emissions to scale the observationally informed anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and the associated effect on the cloud albedo of present-day (Fiedler et al., 2017; Stevens et al., 2017) into the future. The resulting scenarios in MACv2-SP are then ranked according to their strength in forcing magnitude and spatial asymmetries. Almost all scenarios show a decrease in anthropogenic aerosol by 2100 with a range of 108 % to 36 % of the anthropogenic aerosol optical depth in 2015. We estimate the spread in the radiative forcing associated with the scenarios in the mid-2090s by performing ensembles of simulations with the atmosphere-only configuration of MPI-ESM1.2. MACv2-SP herein translates the CMIP6 emission scenarios for inducing aerosol forcing. With the implementation in our model, we obtain forcing estimates for both the shortwave instantaneous (RF) and effective radiative forcing (ERF) relative to 1850. Here, ERF accounts for rapid atmospheric adjustments and natural variability internal to the model.more »« less

Authors:

Fiedler, Stephanie ^[1];

^[1];

^[2];

^[3]; Riahi, Keywan ^[2]; van Vuuren, Detlef ^[4]

Max Planck Inst. for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany)
International Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Austria)
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), College Park, MD (United States). Joint Global Change Research Inst.
Utrecht Univ. (Netherlands); PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (Netherlands)

Publication Date:: 2018-10-16

Research Org.:: Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:: USDOE

OSTI Identifier:: 1557143

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA-139734
Journal ID: ISSN 1991-962X

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

Resource Type:: Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:: Geoscientific Model Development Discussions (Online)

Additional Journal Information:: Journal Name: Geoscientific Model Development Discussions (Online); Journal Volume: 12; Journal Issue: 3; Journal ID: ISSN 1991-962X

Publisher:: European Geosciences Union

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Subject:: 60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES

Citation Formats


                    Fiedler, Stephanie, Stevens, Bjorn, Gidden, Matthew, Smith, Steven J., Riahi, Keywan, and van Vuuren, Detlef. First forcing estimates from the future CMIP6 scenarios ofanthropogenic aerosol optical properties and an associated Twomeyeffect.  United States: N. p., 2018. 
Web.  https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-244.

Copy to clipboard


                    Fiedler, Stephanie, Stevens, Bjorn, Gidden, Matthew, Smith, Steven J., Riahi, Keywan, & van Vuuren, Detlef. First forcing estimates from the future CMIP6 scenarios ofanthropogenic aerosol optical properties and an associated Twomeyeffect.  United States.  https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-244

Copy to clipboard


                    Fiedler, Stephanie, Stevens, Bjorn, Gidden, Matthew, Smith, Steven J., Riahi, Keywan, and van Vuuren, Detlef. Tue .  
"First forcing estimates from the future CMIP6 scenarios ofanthropogenic aerosol optical properties and an associated Twomeyeffect".  United States.  https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-244.  https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1557143.

Copy to clipboard


                    
@article{osti_1557143,

  title        = {First forcing estimates from the future CMIP6 scenarios ofanthropogenic aerosol optical properties and an associated Twomeyeffect},

  author       = {Fiedler, Stephanie and Stevens, Bjorn and Gidden, Matthew and Smith, Steven J. and Riahi, Keywan and van Vuuren, Detlef},

  abstractNote = {We present the first forcing interpretation of the future anthropogenic aerosol scenarios of CMIP6 with the simple plumes parameterisation MACv2-SP. The nine scenarios for 2015 to 2100 are based on SO2 and NH3 emissions for use in CMIP6 (Riahi et al., 2017; Gidden et al., in prep.). We use the emissions to scale the observationally informed anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and the associated effect on the cloud albedo of present-day (Fiedler et al., 2017; Stevens et al., 2017) into the future. The resulting scenarios in MACv2-SP are then ranked according to their strength in forcing magnitude and spatial asymmetries. Almost all scenarios show a decrease in anthropogenic aerosol by 2100 with a range of 108&thinsp;% to 36&thinsp;% of the anthropogenic aerosol optical depth in 2015. We estimate the spread in the radiative forcing associated with the scenarios in the mid-2090s by performing ensembles of simulations with the atmosphere-only configuration of MPI-ESM1.2. MACv2-SP herein translates the CMIP6 emission scenarios for inducing aerosol forcing. With the implementation in our model, we obtain forcing estimates for both the shortwave instantaneous (RF) and effective radiative forcing (ERF) relative to 1850. Here, ERF accounts for rapid atmospheric adjustments and natural variability internal to the model. The spread for the mid-2090s is &minus;0.20 to &minus;0.57&thinsp;Wm&minus;2 (&minus;0.15 to &minus;0.54&thinsp;Wm&minus;2) for RF (ERF) of anthropogenic aerosol, associated with uncertainty in the emission pathway alone, i.e., the mid-2090s forcing ranges from 33&ndash;95% (30&ndash;108%) of the mid-2000s RF (ERF). We find a larger ERF spread of &minus;0.15 to &minus;0.92&thinsp;Wm&minus;2, when we additionally consider uncertainty in the magnitude of the Twomey effect. The year-to-year standard deviations around 0.3&thinsp;Wm&minus;2 associated with natural variability highlights the necessity for averaging over sufficiently long time periods for estimating ERF, in contrast to RF that is typically well constrained after simulating just one year. The scenario interpretation of MACv2-SP will be used within the framework of CMIP6 and other cutting-edge scientific endeavours.},

  doi          = {10.5194/gmd-2018-244},

  journal      = {Geoscientific Model Development Discussions (Online)},

  number       = 3,

  volume       = 12,

  place        = {United States},

  year         = {2018},

  month        = {10}

}

Copy to clipboard

Journal Article:

Free Publicly Available Full Text

Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Publisher's Version of Record

https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-244

Other availability

Search WorldCat to find libraries that may hold this journal

Save / Share:

Export Metadata

Save to My Library

Similar Records in DOE PAGES and OSTI.GOV collections:

First forcing estimates from the future CMIP6 scenarios of anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and an associated Twomey effect

Journal Article Fiedler, Stephanie ; Stevens, Bjorn ; Gidden, Matthew ; ... - Geoscientific Model Development (Online)

We present the first forcing interpretation of the future anthropogenic aerosol scenarios of CMIP6 with the simple plumes parameterisation MACv2-SP. The nine scenarios for 2015 to 2100 are based on anthropogenic aerosol emissions for use in CMIP6 (Riahi et al., 2017; Gidden et al., 2018). We use the emissions to scale the observationally informed anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and the associated effect on the cloud albedo of present-day (Fiedler et al., 2017; Stevens et al., 2017) into the future. The resulting scenarios in MACv2-SP are then ranked according to their strength in forcing magnitude and spatial asymmetries for anthropogenic aerosol. All scenarios, except SSP3-70 and SSP4-60, show amore »« less
Cited by 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/GMD-12-989-2019

Full Text Available
The impact of climate mitigation measures on near term climate forcers

Journal Article Turnock, Steven T. ; Smith, S. ; O’Connor, F. M. - Environmental Research Letters

Here we quantify the regional co-benefits to future air quality on annual to daily mean timescales from implementing mitigation measures to stabilise future climate. Two consistent future emissions pathways are used within the composition-climate model HadGEM3-UKCA: one is a reference pathway of future economic growth and development (REF), whilst the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) assumes the same development pathway but stabilises anthropogenic radiative forcing at 4.5 W m^-2 in 2100. Implementing greenhouse gas mitigation measures in RCP4.5 reduces global mean air pollutant emissions by up to 30% in the 2050s, in addition to mitigating climate. Annual mean surface concentrationsmore »« less
Cited by 1
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4222

Full Text Available
MACv2-SP: a parameterization of anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and an associated Twomey effect for use in CMIP6

Journal Article Stevens, Bjorn ; Fiedler, Stephanie ; Kinne, Stefan ; ... - Geoscientific Model Development (Online)

A simple plume implementation of the second version (v2) of the Max Planck Institute Aerosol Climatology, MACv2-SP, is described. MACv2-SP provides a prescription of anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and an associated Twomey effect. It was created to provide a harmonized description of post-1850 anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing for climate modeling studies. MACv2-SP has been designed to be easy to implement, change and use, and thereby enable studies exploring the climatic effects of different patterns of aerosol radiative forcing, including a Twomey effect. MACv2-SP is formulated in terms of nine spatial plumes associated with different major anthropogenic source regions. The shapemore »« less
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-433-2017
Radiative forcing of the direct aerosol effect from AeroCom Phase II simulations

Journal Article Myhre, G. ; Samset, B. H. ; Schulz, M. ; ... - Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (Online)

We report on the AeroCom Phase II direct aerosol effect (DAE) experiment where 16 detailed global aerosol models have been used to simulate the changes in the aerosol distribution over the industrial era. All 16 models have estimated the radiative forcing (RF) of the anthropogenic DAE, and have taken into account anthropogenic sulphate, black carbon (BC) and organic aerosols (OA) from fossil fuel, biofuel, and biomass burning emissions. In addition several models have simulated the DAE of anthropogenic nitrate and anthropogenic influenced secondary organic aerosols (SOA). The model simulated all-sky RF of the DAE from total anthropogenic aerosols has amore »« less
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1853-2013
Deriving brown carbon from multiwavelength absorption measurements: Method and application to AERONET and Aethalometer observations

Journal Article Wang, X. ; Heald, C. L. ; Sedlacek, A. ; ... - Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

The radiative impact of organic aerosols (OA) is a large source of uncertainty in estimating the global direct radiative effect (DRE) of aerosols. This radiative impact includes not only light scattering but also light absorption from a subclass of OA referred to as brown carbon (BrC). However, the absorption properties of BrC are poorly understood, leading to large uncertainties in modeling studies. To obtain observational constraints from measurements, a simple absorption Ångström exponent (AAE) method is often used to separate the contribution of BrC absorption from that of black carbon (BC). However, this attribution method is based on assumptions regardingmore »« less
Cited by 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-12733-2016

Full Text Available

Similar Records