First forcing estimates from the future CMIP6 scenarios ofanthropogenic aerosol optical properties and an associated Twomeyeffect
Abstract
We present the first forcing interpretation of the future anthropogenic aerosol scenarios of CMIP6 with the simple plumes parameterisation MACv2-SP. The nine scenarios for 2015 to 2100 are based on SO2 and NH3 emissions for use in CMIP6 (Riahi et al., 2017; Gidden et al., in prep.). We use the emissions to scale the observationally informed anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and the associated effect on the cloud albedo of present-day (Fiedler et al., 2017; Stevens et al., 2017) into the future. The resulting scenarios in MACv2-SP are then ranked according to their strength in forcing magnitude and spatial asymmetries. Almost all scenarios show a decrease in anthropogenic aerosol by 2100 with a range of 108 % to 36 % of the anthropogenic aerosol optical depth in 2015. We estimate the spread in the radiative forcing associated with the scenarios in the mid-2090s by performing ensembles of simulations with the atmosphere-only configuration of MPI-ESM1.2. MACv2-SP herein translates the CMIP6 emission scenarios for inducing aerosol forcing. With the implementation in our model, we obtain forcing estimates for both the shortwave instantaneous (RF) and effective radiative forcing (ERF) relative to 1850. Here, ERF accounts for rapid atmospheric adjustments and natural variability internal to the model.more »
- Authors:
-
- Max Planck Inst. for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany)
- International Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Austria)
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), College Park, MD (United States). Joint Global Change Research Inst.
- Utrecht Univ. (Netherlands); PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (Netherlands)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1557143
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-SA-139734
Journal ID: ISSN 1991-962X
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Geoscientific Model Development Discussions (Online)
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Geoscientific Model Development Discussions (Online); Journal Volume: 12; Journal Issue: 3; Journal ID: ISSN 1991-962X
- Publisher:
- European Geosciences Union
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES
Citation Formats
Fiedler, Stephanie, Stevens, Bjorn, Gidden, Matthew, Smith, Steven J., Riahi, Keywan, and van Vuuren, Detlef. First forcing estimates from the future CMIP6 scenarios ofanthropogenic aerosol optical properties and an associated Twomeyeffect. United States: N. p., 2018.
Web. doi:10.5194/gmd-2018-244.
Fiedler, Stephanie, Stevens, Bjorn, Gidden, Matthew, Smith, Steven J., Riahi, Keywan, & van Vuuren, Detlef. First forcing estimates from the future CMIP6 scenarios ofanthropogenic aerosol optical properties and an associated Twomeyeffect. United States. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-244
Fiedler, Stephanie, Stevens, Bjorn, Gidden, Matthew, Smith, Steven J., Riahi, Keywan, and van Vuuren, Detlef. Tue .
"First forcing estimates from the future CMIP6 scenarios ofanthropogenic aerosol optical properties and an associated Twomeyeffect". United States. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-244. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1557143.
@article{osti_1557143,
title = {First forcing estimates from the future CMIP6 scenarios ofanthropogenic aerosol optical properties and an associated Twomeyeffect},
author = {Fiedler, Stephanie and Stevens, Bjorn and Gidden, Matthew and Smith, Steven J. and Riahi, Keywan and van Vuuren, Detlef},
abstractNote = {We present the first forcing interpretation of the future anthropogenic aerosol scenarios of CMIP6 with the simple plumes parameterisation MACv2-SP. The nine scenarios for 2015 to 2100 are based on SO2 and NH3 emissions for use in CMIP6 (Riahi et al., 2017; Gidden et al., in prep.). We use the emissions to scale the observationally informed anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and the associated effect on the cloud albedo of present-day (Fiedler et al., 2017; Stevens et al., 2017) into the future. The resulting scenarios in MACv2-SP are then ranked according to their strength in forcing magnitude and spatial asymmetries. Almost all scenarios show a decrease in anthropogenic aerosol by 2100 with a range of 108 % to 36 % of the anthropogenic aerosol optical depth in 2015. We estimate the spread in the radiative forcing associated with the scenarios in the mid-2090s by performing ensembles of simulations with the atmosphere-only configuration of MPI-ESM1.2. MACv2-SP herein translates the CMIP6 emission scenarios for inducing aerosol forcing. With the implementation in our model, we obtain forcing estimates for both the shortwave instantaneous (RF) and effective radiative forcing (ERF) relative to 1850. Here, ERF accounts for rapid atmospheric adjustments and natural variability internal to the model. The spread for the mid-2090s is −0.20 to −0.57 Wm−2 (−0.15 to −0.54 Wm−2) for RF (ERF) of anthropogenic aerosol, associated with uncertainty in the emission pathway alone, i.e., the mid-2090s forcing ranges from 33–95% (30–108%) of the mid-2000s RF (ERF). We find a larger ERF spread of −0.15 to −0.92 Wm−2, when we additionally consider uncertainty in the magnitude of the Twomey effect. The year-to-year standard deviations around 0.3 Wm−2 associated with natural variability highlights the necessity for averaging over sufficiently long time periods for estimating ERF, in contrast to RF that is typically well constrained after simulating just one year. The scenario interpretation of MACv2-SP will be used within the framework of CMIP6 and other cutting-edge scientific endeavours.},
doi = {10.5194/gmd-2018-244},
journal = {Geoscientific Model Development Discussions (Online)},
number = 3,
volume = 12,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {10}
}
Works referenced in this record:
MAC-v1: A new global aerosol climatology for climate studies: MAC-v1 for Climate Studies
journal, October 2013
- Kinne, Stefan; O'Donnel, Declan; Stier, Philip
- Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 5, Issue 4
Global and regional evolution of short-lived radiatively-active gases and aerosols in the Representative Concentration Pathways
journal, August 2011
- Lamarque, Jean-François; Kyle, G. Page; Meinshausen, Malte
- Climatic Change, Vol. 109, Issue 1-2
A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways
journal, October 2013
- O’Neill, Brian C.; Kriegler, Elmar; Riahi, Keywan
- Climatic Change, Vol. 122, Issue 3
Pollution and the Planetary Albedo
journal, January 2007
- Twomey, S.
- Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 41
The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview
journal, January 2017
- Riahi, Keywan; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Kriegler, Elmar
- Global Environmental Change, Vol. 42
Aerosol forcing in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations by HadGEM2-ES and the role of ammonium nitrate
journal, January 2011
- Bellouin, Nicolas; Rae, Jamie; Jones, Andy
- Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 116, Issue D20
A Higher-resolution Version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2-HR)
journal, July 2018
- Müller, W. A.; Jungclaus, J. H.; Mauritsen, T.
- Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 10, Issue 7
ICON-A, the Atmosphere Component of the ICON Earth System Model: I. Model Description
journal, July 2018
- Giorgetta, M. A.; Brokopf, R.; Crueger, T.
- Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 10, Issue 7
Developments in the MPI‐M Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI‐ESM1.2) and Its Response to Increasing CO 2
journal, April 2019
- Mauritsen, Thorsten; Bader, Jürgen; Becker, Tobias
- Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 11, Issue 4
Untangling aerosol effects on clouds and precipitation in a buffered system
journal, October 2009
- Stevens, Bjorn; Feingold, Graham
- Nature, Vol. 461, Issue 7264
Large contribution of natural aerosols to uncertainty in indirect forcing
journal, November 2013
- Carslaw, K. S.; Lee, L. A.; Reddington, C. L.
- Nature, Vol. 503, Issue 7474
Clouds, circulation and climate sensitivity
journal, March 2015
- Bony, Sandrine; Stevens, Bjorn; Frierson, Dargan M. W.
- Nature Geoscience, Vol. 8, Issue 4
Hemispheric climate shifts driven by anthropogenic aerosol–cloud interactions
journal, July 2017
- Chung, Eui-Seok; Soden, Brian J.
- Nature Geoscience, Vol. 10, Issue 8
The MACv2 aerosol climatology
journal, January 2019
- Kinne, Stefan
- Tellus B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology, Vol. 71, Issue 1
Climate Effects of Aerosol-Cloud Interactions
journal, January 2014
- Rosenfeld, D.; Sherwood, S.; Wood, R.
- Science, Vol. 343, Issue 6169
MiKlip: A National Research Project on Decadal Climate Prediction
journal, December 2016
- Marotzke, Jochem; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Vamborg, Freja S. E.
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 97, Issue 12
Rethinking the Lower Bound on Aerosol Radiative Forcing
journal, June 2015
- Stevens, Bjorn
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 28, Issue 12
Constraining the total aerosol indirect effect in the LMDZ and ECHAM4 GCMs using MODIS satellite data
text, January 2006
- Quaas, Johannes; Boucher, O.; Lohmann, Ulrike
- ETH Zurich
Radiative forcing in the ACCMIP historical and future climate simulations
journal, January 2012
- Shindell, D. T.; Lamarque, J. -F.; Schulz, M.
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, Vol. 12, Issue 8
Correlation between cloud condensation nuclei concentration and aerosol optical thickness in remote and polluted regions
journal, January 2008
- Andreae, M. O.
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, Vol. 8, Issue 3
Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization
journal, January 2016
- Eyring, Veronika; Bony, Sandrine; Meehl, Gerald A.
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 5
The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6
journal, January 2016
- O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 9
The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) contribution to CMIP6
journal, January 2016
- Boer, George J.; Smith, Douglas M.; Cassou, Christophe
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 10
High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP6
journal, January 2016
- Haarsma, Reindert J.; Roberts, Malcolm J.; Vidale, Pier Luigi
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 11
A process-based evaluation of dust-emitting winds in the CMIP5 simulation of HadGEM2-ES
text, January 2016
- Fiedler, S.; Knippertz, P.; Woodward, S.
- Karlsruhe
Constraining the total aerosol indirect effect in the LMDZ and ECHAM4 GCMs using MODIS satellite data
journal, January 2006
- Quaas, J.; Boucher, O.; Lohmann, U.
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 6, Issue 4
Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organisation
journal, January 2015
- Eyring, V.; Bony, S.; Meehl, G. A.
- Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, Vol. 8, Issue 12
A process-based evaluation of dust-emitting winds in the CMIP5 simulation of HadGEM2-ES
journal, May 2015
- Fiedler, Stephanie; Knippertz, Peter; Woodward, Stephanie
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 46, Issue 3-4
The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6
text, January 2016
- O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; Van Vuuren, Detlef P.
- ETH Zurich
Correlation between cloud condensation nuclei concentration and aerosol optical thickness in remote and polluted regions
journal, January 2009
- Andreae, M. O.
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 9, Issue 2
Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6: a dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of the century
journal, January 2019
- Gidden, Matthew J.; Riahi, Keywan; Smith, Steven J.
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 12, Issue 4
Works referencing / citing this record:
Anthropogenic aerosol forcing under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
journal, January 2019
- Lund, Marianne T.; Myhre, Gunnar; Samset, Bjørn H.
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 19, Issue 22
Anthropogenic aerosol forcing – insights from multiple estimates from aerosol-climate models with reduced complexity
journal, January 2019
- Fiedler, Stephanie; Kinne, Stefan; Huang, Wan Ting Katty
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 19, Issue 10
Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6: a dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of the century
journal, January 2019
- Gidden, Matthew J.; Riahi, Keywan; Smith, Steven J.
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 12, Issue 4