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Title: Play fairway analysis of geothermal resources across the state of Hawaii: 2. Resource probability mapping

Abstract

We develop a new geostatistical method to combine evidence provided by diverse geological data sets and produce maps of geothermal resource probability. The application is to the State of Hawaii, and the data sets include the locations and ages of mapped volcanic centers, gravity and magnetotelluric measurements, groundwater temperature and geochemistry, ground surface deformation, seismicity, water table elevation, and groundwater recharge. Using the basic principles of Bayesian statistics, these data and expert knowledge about the effects and importance of the data are used to compute the probabilities of the primary resource qualities of elevated subsurface heat, reservoir permeability, and reservoir fluid content. The product of these marginal probabilities estimates the joint probability of all three qualities and hence the probability of a successful geothermal prospect at each map point. An analogous set of algorithms is used to quantify the confidence in the probability at each point. Not surprisingly, we find that successful geothermal prospects are most probable on the active volcanoes of Hawaii Island, including the area of Hawaii’s single geothermal energy plant. Probability decreases primarily with shield volcano age, being relatively moderate in select locations on Maui and Lanai, relatively low on Oahu, and minimal on Kauai. Future explorationmore » efforts should consider these results as well as the practical, societal, and economic conditions that influence development viability. Here, the difficulties of interisland power transmission mean that even areas with moderate to low probabilities are worth investigating on islands with population centers.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [2];  [1];  [3];  [1]
+ Show Author Affiliations
  1. Univ. of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI (United States)
  2. Univ. of Nevada, Reno, NV (United States)
  3. Hawaii State Dept. of Health, Honolulu, HI (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Univ. of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Renewable Power Office. Geothermal Technologies Office
OSTI Identifier:
1897810
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1550631; OSTI ID: 1897925
Grant/Contract Number:  
EE0006729; EE6729
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Geothermics
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 70; Journal ID: ISSN 0375-6505
Publisher:
Elsevier
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY; Volcanic islands; Resource prospecting; Data analysis; Geology; Geophysics; Geochemistry; Probability and statistics; Volcanic islands, Resource prospecting, Data analysis, Geology, Geophysics, Geochemistry, Probability and statistics

Citation Formats

Ito, Garrett, Frazer, Neil, Lautze, Nicole, Thomas, Donald, Hinz, Nicholas, Waller, David, Whittier, Robert, and Wallin, Erin. Play fairway analysis of geothermal resources across the state of Hawaii: 2. Resource probability mapping. United States: N. p., 2016. Web. doi:10.1016/j.geothermics.2016.11.004.
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Ito, Garrett, Frazer, Neil, Lautze, Nicole, Thomas, Donald, Hinz, Nicholas, Waller, David, Whittier, Robert, & Wallin, Erin. Play fairway analysis of geothermal resources across the state of Hawaii: 2. Resource probability mapping. United States. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geothermics.2016.11.004
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Ito, Garrett, Frazer, Neil, Lautze, Nicole, Thomas, Donald, Hinz, Nicholas, Waller, David, Whittier, Robert, and Wallin, Erin. Thu . "Play fairway analysis of geothermal resources across the state of Hawaii: 2. Resource probability mapping". United States. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geothermics.2016.11.004. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1897810.
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@article{osti_1897810,
title = {Play fairway analysis of geothermal resources across the state of Hawaii: 2. Resource probability mapping},
author = {Ito, Garrett and Frazer, Neil and Lautze, Nicole and Thomas, Donald and Hinz, Nicholas and Waller, David and Whittier, Robert and Wallin, Erin},
abstractNote = {We develop a new geostatistical method to combine evidence provided by diverse geological data sets and produce maps of geothermal resource probability. The application is to the State of Hawaii, and the data sets include the locations and ages of mapped volcanic centers, gravity and magnetotelluric measurements, groundwater temperature and geochemistry, ground surface deformation, seismicity, water table elevation, and groundwater recharge. Using the basic principles of Bayesian statistics, these data and expert knowledge about the effects and importance of the data are used to compute the probabilities of the primary resource qualities of elevated subsurface heat, reservoir permeability, and reservoir fluid content. The product of these marginal probabilities estimates the joint probability of all three qualities and hence the probability of a successful geothermal prospect at each map point. An analogous set of algorithms is used to quantify the confidence in the probability at each point. Not surprisingly, we find that successful geothermal prospects are most probable on the active volcanoes of Hawaii Island, including the area of Hawaii’s single geothermal energy plant. Probability decreases primarily with shield volcano age, being relatively moderate in select locations on Maui and Lanai, relatively low on Oahu, and minimal on Kauai. Future exploration efforts should consider these results as well as the practical, societal, and economic conditions that influence development viability. Here, the difficulties of interisland power transmission mean that even areas with moderate to low probabilities are worth investigating on islands with population centers.},
doi = {10.1016/j.geothermics.2016.11.004},
journal = {Geothermics},
number = ,
volume = 70,
place = {United States},
year = {Thu Dec 15 00:00:00 EST 2016},
month = {Thu Dec 15 00:00:00 EST 2016}
}
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Journal Article:
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Publisher's Version of Record
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geothermics.2016.11.004
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