Global Seismic Nowcasting With Shannon Information Entropy
[1];
- Department of Physics University of California Davis CA USA, Santa Fe Institute Santa Fe NM USA, Department of Earth and Planetary Science University of California Davis CA USA, Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Pasadena CA USA, Tohoku University Sendai Japan
- Department of Physics University of California Davis CA USA
- Department of Earth and Planetary Science University of California Davis CA USA
- Department of Physics University of California Davis CA USA, Santa Fe Institute Santa Fe NM USA
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Pasadena CA USA
Abstract Seismic nowcasting uses counts of small earthquakes as proxy data to estimate the current dynamical state of an earthquake fault system . The result is an earthquake potential score that characterizes the current state of progress of a defined geographic region through its nominal earthquake “cycle.” The count of small earthquakes since the last large earthquake is the natural time that has elapsed since the last large earthquake (Varotsos et al., 2006, https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.74.021123 ). In addition to natural time, earthquake sequences can also be analyzed using Shannon information entropy (“information”), an idea that was pioneered by Shannon (1948, https://doi.org/10.1002/j.1538‐7305.1948.tb01338.x ). As a first step to add seismic information entropy into the nowcasting method, we incorporate magnitude information into the natural time counts by using event self‐information. We find in this first application of seismic information entropy that the earthquake potential score values are similar to the values using only natural time. However, other characteristics of earthquake sequences, including the interevent time intervals, or the departure of higher magnitude events from the magnitude‐frequency scaling line, may contain additional information.
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- Grant/Contract Number:
- SC0017324
- OSTI ID:
- 1547799
- Journal Information:
- Earth and Space Science, Journal Name: Earth and Space Science Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 6; ISSN 2333-5084
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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