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Title: CAUSES: Attribution of Surface Radiation Biases in NWP and Climate Models near the U.S. Southern Great Plains

Abstract

Many Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and climate models exhibit too warm lower tropospheres near the midlatitude continents. The warm bias has been shown to coincide with important surface radiation biases that likely play a critical role in the inception or the growth of the warm bias. This paper presents an attribution study on the net radiation biases in nine model simulations, performed in the framework of the CAUSES project (Clouds Above the United States and Errors at the Surface). Contributions from deficiencies in the surface properties, clouds, water vapor, and aerosols are quantified, using an array of radiation measurement stations near the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains site. Furthermore, an in-depth analysis is shown to attribute the radiation errors to specific cloud regimes. The net surface shortwave radiation is overestimated in all models throughout most of the simulation period. Cloud errors are shown to contribute most to this overestimation, although nonnegligible contributions from the surface albedo exist in most models. Missing deep cloud events and/or simulating deep clouds with too weak cloud radiative effects dominate in the cloud-related radiation errors. Some models have compensating errors between excessive occurrence of deep cloud but largely underestimating their radiative effect, while othermore » models miss deep cloud events altogether. Surprisingly, even the latter models tend to produce too much and too frequent afternoon surface precipitation. This suggests that rather than issues with the triggering of deep convection, cloud radiative deficiencies are related to too weak convective cloud detrainment and too large precipitation efficiencies.« less

Authors:
 [1]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [3]; ORCiD logo [3]; ORCiD logo [3]; ORCiD logo [3]; ORCiD logo [3]; ORCiD logo [4]; ORCiD logo [4]; ORCiD logo [5]; ORCiD logo [5]; ORCiD logo [6]; ORCiD logo [6]; ORCiD logo [6] more »; ORCiD logo [7];  [7]; ORCiD logo [8]; ORCiD logo [9];  [10] « less
  1. Met Office Exeter UK
  2. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Livermore CA USA
  3. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Richland WA USA
  4. European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts Reading UK
  5. CNRM, Meteo‐France/CNRS Toulouse France
  6. Environment and Climate Change Canada Victoria British Columbia Canada
  7. Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique Paris France
  8. Academia Sinica Taipei Taiwan
  9. Brookhaven National Laboratory Upton NY USA
  10. Science Systems and Applications, Inc Norfolk VA USA
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
OSTI Identifier:
1547796
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1438759; OSTI ID: 1454812; OSTI ID: 1547797
Report Number(s):
LLNL-JRNL-732219; BNL-205767-2018-JAAM
Journal ID: ISSN 2169-897X
Grant/Contract Number:  
SC0014122; SC0005259; AC05-76RL01830; AC52-07NA27344; AC02-05CH11231; SC0012704
Resource Type:
Published Article
Journal Name:
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Journal Volume: 123 Journal Issue: 7; Journal ID: ISSN 2169-897X
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
58 GEOSCIENCES; 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; warm bias; CAUSES; radiation; attribution; clouds

Citation Formats

Van Weverberg, K., Morcrette, C. J., Petch, J., Klein, S. A., Ma, H. ‐Y., Zhang, C., Xie, S., Tang, Q., Gustafson, Jr, W. I., Qian, Y., Berg, L. K., Liu, Y., Huang, M., Ahlgrimm, M., Forbes, R., Bazile, E., Roehrig, R., Cole, J., Merryfield, W., Lee, W. ‐S., Cheruy, F., Mellul, L., Wang, Y. ‐C., Johnson, K., and Thieman, M. M. CAUSES: Attribution of Surface Radiation Biases in NWP and Climate Models near the U.S. Southern Great Plains. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1002/2017JD027188.
Van Weverberg, K., Morcrette, C. J., Petch, J., Klein, S. A., Ma, H. ‐Y., Zhang, C., Xie, S., Tang, Q., Gustafson, Jr, W. I., Qian, Y., Berg, L. K., Liu, Y., Huang, M., Ahlgrimm, M., Forbes, R., Bazile, E., Roehrig, R., Cole, J., Merryfield, W., Lee, W. ‐S., Cheruy, F., Mellul, L., Wang, Y. ‐C., Johnson, K., & Thieman, M. M. CAUSES: Attribution of Surface Radiation Biases in NWP and Climate Models near the U.S. Southern Great Plains. United States. doi:https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027188
Van Weverberg, K., Morcrette, C. J., Petch, J., Klein, S. A., Ma, H. ‐Y., Zhang, C., Xie, S., Tang, Q., Gustafson, Jr, W. I., Qian, Y., Berg, L. K., Liu, Y., Huang, M., Ahlgrimm, M., Forbes, R., Bazile, E., Roehrig, R., Cole, J., Merryfield, W., Lee, W. ‐S., Cheruy, F., Mellul, L., Wang, Y. ‐C., Johnson, K., and Thieman, M. M. Fri . "CAUSES: Attribution of Surface Radiation Biases in NWP and Climate Models near the U.S. Southern Great Plains". United States. doi:https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027188.
@article{osti_1547796,
title = {CAUSES: Attribution of Surface Radiation Biases in NWP and Climate Models near the U.S. Southern Great Plains},
author = {Van Weverberg, K. and Morcrette, C. J. and Petch, J. and Klein, S. A. and Ma, H. ‐Y. and Zhang, C. and Xie, S. and Tang, Q. and Gustafson, Jr, W. I. and Qian, Y. and Berg, L. K. and Liu, Y. and Huang, M. and Ahlgrimm, M. and Forbes, R. and Bazile, E. and Roehrig, R. and Cole, J. and Merryfield, W. and Lee, W. ‐S. and Cheruy, F. and Mellul, L. and Wang, Y. ‐C. and Johnson, K. and Thieman, M. M.},
abstractNote = {Many Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and climate models exhibit too warm lower tropospheres near the midlatitude continents. The warm bias has been shown to coincide with important surface radiation biases that likely play a critical role in the inception or the growth of the warm bias. This paper presents an attribution study on the net radiation biases in nine model simulations, performed in the framework of the CAUSES project (Clouds Above the United States and Errors at the Surface). Contributions from deficiencies in the surface properties, clouds, water vapor, and aerosols are quantified, using an array of radiation measurement stations near the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains site. Furthermore, an in-depth analysis is shown to attribute the radiation errors to specific cloud regimes. The net surface shortwave radiation is overestimated in all models throughout most of the simulation period. Cloud errors are shown to contribute most to this overestimation, although nonnegligible contributions from the surface albedo exist in most models. Missing deep cloud events and/or simulating deep clouds with too weak cloud radiative effects dominate in the cloud-related radiation errors. Some models have compensating errors between excessive occurrence of deep cloud but largely underestimating their radiative effect, while other models miss deep cloud events altogether. Surprisingly, even the latter models tend to produce too much and too frequent afternoon surface precipitation. This suggests that rather than issues with the triggering of deep convection, cloud radiative deficiencies are related to too weak convective cloud detrainment and too large precipitation efficiencies.},
doi = {10.1002/2017JD027188},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
number = 7,
volume = 123,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {4}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027188

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Cited by: 25 works
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    Studies with a flexible new radiation code. I: Choosing a configuration for a large-scale model
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    • Edwards, J. M.; Slingo, A.
    • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 122, Issue 531
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    The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system
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    Evaluation of two cloud parametrization schemes using ARM and Cloud-Net observations
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    • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 138, Issue 665
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    • Hourdin, Frédéric; Grandpeix, Jean-Yves; Rio, Catherine
    • Climate Dynamics, Vol. 40, Issue 9-10
    • DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1343-y

    How well can a convection-permitting climate model reproduce decadal statistics of precipitation, temperature and cloud characteristics?
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    Evaluation of the warm season diurnal cycle of precipitation over Sweden simulated by the Rossby Centre regional climate model RCA3
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    • Walters, D. N.; Williams, K. D.; Boutle, I. A.
    • Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 7, Issue 1
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    Assessing the CAM5 physics suite in the WRF-Chem model: implementation, resolution sensitivity, and a first evaluation for a regional case study
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    Introduction to CAUSES: Description of Weather and Climate Models and Their Near‐Surface Temperature Errors in 5 day Hindcasts Near the Southern Great Plains
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    • DOI: 10.5439/1178331

    Introduction to CAUSES: Description of Weather and Climate Models and Their Near‐Surface Temperature Errors in 5 day Hindcasts Near the Southern Great Plains
    journal, March 2018

    • Morcrette, C. J.; Van Weverberg, K.; Ma, H. ‐Y.
    • Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 123, Issue 5
    • DOI: 10.1002/2017jd027199

    Regionally refined test bed in E3SM atmosphere model version 1 (EAMv1) and applications for high-resolution modeling
    journal, January 2019

    • Tang, Qi; Klein, Stephen A.; Xie, Shaocheng
    • Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 12, Issue 7
    • DOI: 10.5194/gmd-12-2679-2019

    CAUSES: On the Role of Surface Energy Budget Errors to the Warm Surface Air Temperature Error Over the Central United States
    journal, March 2018

    • Ma, H. ‐Y.; Klein, S. A.; Xie, S.
    • Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 123, Issue 5
    • DOI: 10.1002/2017jd027194

    Ongoing Breakthroughs in Convective Parameterization
    journal, April 2019

    • Rio, Catherine; Del Genio, Anthony D.; Hourdin, Frédéric
    • Current Climate Change Reports, Vol. 5, Issue 2
    • DOI: 10.1007/s40641-019-00127-w

    The Summertime Precipitation Bias in E3SM Atmosphere Model Version 1 over the Central United States
    journal, August 2019

    • Zheng, X.; Golaz, J. ‐C.; Xie, S.
    • Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 124, Issue 16
    • DOI: 10.1029/2019jd030662

    Evaluating solar radiation forecast uncertainty
    journal, January 2019

    • Tuononen, Minttu; O'Connor, Ewan J.; Sinclair, Victoria A.
    • Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 19, Issue 3
    • DOI: 10.5194/acp-19-1985-2019

    Reducing climate model biases by exploring parameter space with large ensembles of climate model simulations and statistical emulation
    journal, January 2019

    • Li, Sihan; Rupp, David E.; Hawkins, Linnia
    • Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 12, Issue 7
    • DOI: 10.5194/gmd-12-3017-2019