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Title: Forecasting Indonesia's electricity load through 2030 and peak demand reductions from appliance and lighting efficiency

Abstract

Indonesia's electricity necessity is growing rapidly, driven by robust economic growth combined with unprecedented urbanization and industrialization. Energy-efficiency improvements could reduce the country's electricity demand, thus providing monetary savings, greenhouse gas and other pollutant reductions, and improved energy security. Above all else, using energy efficiency to lower peak electricity demand could reduce the risk of economically damaging power shortages while freeing up funds that would otherwise be used for power plant construction. We use a novel bottom-up modeling approach to analyze the potential of energy efficiency to reduce Indonesia's electricity demand: the LOAD curve Model (LOADM) combines total national electricity demand for each end use—as modeled by the Bottom-Up Energy Analysis System (BUENAS)—with hourly end-use demand profiles. We find that Indonesia's peak demand may triple between 2010 and 2030 in a business-as-usual case, to 77.3 GW, primarily driven by air conditioning and with important contributions from lighting and refrigerators. However, we also show that appliance and lighting efficiency improvements could hold the peak demand increase to a factor of two, which would avoid 26.5 GW of peak demand in 2030. These results suggest that well-understood programs, such as minimum efficiency performance standards, could save Indonesia tens of billions of dollarsmore » in capital costs over the next decade and a half.« less

Authors:
; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
OSTI Identifier:
1547772
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1542394
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC02-05CH11231
Resource Type:
Published Article
Journal Name:
Energy for Sustainable Development
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Energy for Sustainable Development Journal Volume: 49 Journal Issue: C; Journal ID: ISSN 0973-0826
Publisher:
Elsevier
Country of Publication:
India
Language:
English
Subject:
25 ENERGY STORAGE; 29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY; Energy efficiency; Indonesia; Lighting; Appliances; Electricity demand forecasting; Peak load

Citation Formats

McNeil, Michael A., Karali, Nihan, and Letschert, Virginie. Forecasting Indonesia's electricity load through 2030 and peak demand reductions from appliance and lighting efficiency. India: N. p., 2019. Web. doi:10.1016/j.esd.2019.01.001.
McNeil, Michael A., Karali, Nihan, & Letschert, Virginie. Forecasting Indonesia's electricity load through 2030 and peak demand reductions from appliance and lighting efficiency. India. doi:10.1016/j.esd.2019.01.001.
McNeil, Michael A., Karali, Nihan, and Letschert, Virginie. Mon . "Forecasting Indonesia's electricity load through 2030 and peak demand reductions from appliance and lighting efficiency". India. doi:10.1016/j.esd.2019.01.001.
@article{osti_1547772,
title = {Forecasting Indonesia's electricity load through 2030 and peak demand reductions from appliance and lighting efficiency},
author = {McNeil, Michael A. and Karali, Nihan and Letschert, Virginie},
abstractNote = {Indonesia's electricity necessity is growing rapidly, driven by robust economic growth combined with unprecedented urbanization and industrialization. Energy-efficiency improvements could reduce the country's electricity demand, thus providing monetary savings, greenhouse gas and other pollutant reductions, and improved energy security. Above all else, using energy efficiency to lower peak electricity demand could reduce the risk of economically damaging power shortages while freeing up funds that would otherwise be used for power plant construction. We use a novel bottom-up modeling approach to analyze the potential of energy efficiency to reduce Indonesia's electricity demand: the LOAD curve Model (LOADM) combines total national electricity demand for each end use—as modeled by the Bottom-Up Energy Analysis System (BUENAS)—with hourly end-use demand profiles. We find that Indonesia's peak demand may triple between 2010 and 2030 in a business-as-usual case, to 77.3 GW, primarily driven by air conditioning and with important contributions from lighting and refrigerators. However, we also show that appliance and lighting efficiency improvements could hold the peak demand increase to a factor of two, which would avoid 26.5 GW of peak demand in 2030. These results suggest that well-understood programs, such as minimum efficiency performance standards, could save Indonesia tens of billions of dollars in capital costs over the next decade and a half.},
doi = {10.1016/j.esd.2019.01.001},
journal = {Energy for Sustainable Development},
number = C,
volume = 49,
place = {India},
year = {2019},
month = {4}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
DOI: 10.1016/j.esd.2019.01.001

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