Title: Increase in extreme precipitation events under anthropogenic warming in India

Abstract

India has witnessed some of the most devastating extreme precipitation events, which have affected urban transportation, agriculture, and infrastructure. Despite the profound implications and damage due to extreme precipitation events, the influence of anthropogenic warming on the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events over India remains poorly constrained. Here using the gridded observations and simulations from the Coupled model intercomparison project 5 (CMIP5) and Climate of 20th century plus (C20C+) detection and attribution (D&A) project, we show that the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events have increased in India during the last few decades. Along with the extreme precipitation, dew point temperature has also increased during 1979–2015. The scaling relationship between extreme precipitation and dew point temperature shows a super (more than 7% increase per unit rise in dew point temperature) Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) relationship for the majority of south India. Moreover, southern and central India show a higher (10%/°C) scaling relationship than north India (3.5%/°C). Our analysis using the Hist (historic) and HistNat (historic natural) simulations from the CMIP5 and C20C+ projects confirms an increase in the frequency of extreme precipitation events under the anthropogenic warming. Moreover, we show that 1–5 day precipitation maxima at 5–500 year returnmore » period increases (10–30%) under the anthropogenic warming. The frequency of precipitation extremes is projected to rise more prominently in southern and central India in the mid and end of the 21st century under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5. Our results show a significant contribution of anthropogenic warming in the rise of the frequency of extreme precipitation, which has implications for infrastructure, agriculture, and water resources in India.« less

Authors:

Mukherjee, Sourav ^[1]; Aadhar, Saran  ^[1];

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Stone, Daithi ^[2]; Mishra, Vimal ^[1]

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+ Show Author Affiliations

1. Indian Inst. of Technology (IIT), Gandhinagar (India)
2. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Publication Date:

2018-03-22

Research Org.:

Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC)

Sponsoring Org.:

USDOE Office of Science (SC)

OSTI Identifier:

1544307

Resource Type:

Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:

Weather and Climate Extremes

Additional Journal Information:

Journal Volume: 20; Journal Issue: C; Journal ID: ISSN 2212-0947

Publisher:

Elsevier

Country of Publication:

United States

Language:

English

Subject:

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES