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Title: Diagnosing added value of convection-permitting regional models using precipitation event identification and tracking

Abstract

Dynamical downscaling with high-resolution regional climate models may offer the possibility of realistically reproducing precipitation and weather events in climate simulations. As resolutions fall to order kilometers, the use of explicit rather than parametrized convection may offer even greater fidelity. However, these increased resolutions both allow and require increasingly complex diagnostics for evaluating model fidelity. Here we focus on precipitation evaluation and analyze five 2-month-long dynamically downscaled model runs over the continental United States that employ different convective and microphysics parameterizations, including one high-resolution convection-permitting simulation. All model runs use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model driven by National Center for Environmental Prediction reanalysis data. We show that employing a novel rainstorm identification and tracking algorithm that allocates essentially all rainfall to individual precipitation events allows new insights into model biases. Results include that, at least in these runs, model wet bias is driven by excessive areal extent of individual precipitating events, and that the effect is time-dependent, producing excessive diurnal cycle amplitude. This amplified cycle is driven not by new production of events but by excessive daytime enlargement of long-lived precipitation events. Here, we further show that in the domain average, precipitation biases appear best represented as additive offsets.more » Of all model configurations evaluated, convection-permitting simulations most consistently reduced biases in precipitation event characteristics.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [2];  [3]
  1. Univ. of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH (United States)
  2. Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Lemont, IL (United States)
  3. Univ. of Chicago, Chicago, IL (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC); Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC); National Science Foundation (NSF)
OSTI Identifier:
1544253
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1569848
Grant/Contract Number:  
1106862; 1106974; 1107046; 0951576; AC02-06CH11357
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Climate Dynamics
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 55; Journal Issue: 1-2; Journal ID: ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher:
Springer-Verlag
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Precipitation; Convection permitting simulation; Parameterization; Rainstorm tracking; Convection Permitting Simulation; Rainstorm Tracking

Citation Formats

Chang, Won, Wang, Jiali, Marohnic, Julian, Kotamarthi, V. Rao, and Moyer, Elisabeth J. Diagnosing added value of convection-permitting regional models using precipitation event identification and tracking. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4294-0.
Chang, Won, Wang, Jiali, Marohnic, Julian, Kotamarthi, V. Rao, & Moyer, Elisabeth J. Diagnosing added value of convection-permitting regional models using precipitation event identification and tracking. United States. doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4294-0
Chang, Won, Wang, Jiali, Marohnic, Julian, Kotamarthi, V. Rao, and Moyer, Elisabeth J. Wed . "Diagnosing added value of convection-permitting regional models using precipitation event identification and tracking". United States. doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4294-0. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1544253.
@article{osti_1544253,
title = {Diagnosing added value of convection-permitting regional models using precipitation event identification and tracking},
author = {Chang, Won and Wang, Jiali and Marohnic, Julian and Kotamarthi, V. Rao and Moyer, Elisabeth J.},
abstractNote = {Dynamical downscaling with high-resolution regional climate models may offer the possibility of realistically reproducing precipitation and weather events in climate simulations. As resolutions fall to order kilometers, the use of explicit rather than parametrized convection may offer even greater fidelity. However, these increased resolutions both allow and require increasingly complex diagnostics for evaluating model fidelity. Here we focus on precipitation evaluation and analyze five 2-month-long dynamically downscaled model runs over the continental United States that employ different convective and microphysics parameterizations, including one high-resolution convection-permitting simulation. All model runs use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model driven by National Center for Environmental Prediction reanalysis data. We show that employing a novel rainstorm identification and tracking algorithm that allocates essentially all rainfall to individual precipitation events allows new insights into model biases. Results include that, at least in these runs, model wet bias is driven by excessive areal extent of individual precipitating events, and that the effect is time-dependent, producing excessive diurnal cycle amplitude. This amplified cycle is driven not by new production of events but by excessive daytime enlargement of long-lived precipitation events. Here, we further show that in the domain average, precipitation biases appear best represented as additive offsets. Of all model configurations evaluated, convection-permitting simulations most consistently reduced biases in precipitation event characteristics.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-018-4294-0},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = 1-2,
volume = 55,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {7}
}

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Cited by: 2 works
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Works referenced in this record:

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The Kain–Fritsch Convective Parameterization: An Update
journal, January 2004


The Diurnal Cycle and Its Depiction in the Community Climate System Model
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Benefit of convection permitting climate model simulations in the representation of convective precipitation
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Statistical calibration of climate system properties
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The added value to global model projections of climate change by dynamical downscaling: A case study over the continental U.S. using the GISS-ModelE2 and WRF models: THE VALUE ADDED BY TYPE-4 DD
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How Physical Parameterizations Can Modulate Internal Variability in a Regional Climate Model
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Downscaling with a nested regional climate model in near-surface fields over the contiguous United States: WRF dynamical downscaling
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Sensitivity of WRF to driving data and physics options on a seasonal time-scale for the southwest of Western Australia
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Sensitivity of a Simulated Squall Line to Horizontal Resolution and Parameterization of Microphysics
journal, January 2012


Application of Object-Based Time-Domain Diagnostics for Tracking Precipitation Systems in Convection-Allowing Models
journal, June 2014

  • Clark, Adam J.; Bullock, Randy G.; Jensen, Tara L.
  • Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 29, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-13-00098.1

Precipitation Characteristics in Eighteen Coupled Climate Models
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Added value of high resolution models in simulating global precipitation characteristics: Improvement of precipitation simulation in high resolution models
journal, December 2016

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  • Atmospheric Science Letters, Vol. 17, Issue 12
  • DOI: 10.1002/asl.715

Sensitivity of WRF cloud microphysics to simulations of a severe thunderstorm event over Southeast India
journal, January 2010


Parameterization-Induced Error Characteristics of MM5 and WRF Operated in Climate Mode over the Alpine Region: An Ensemble-Based Analysis
journal, June 2011


Development of an Automated Classification Procedure for Rainfall Systems
journal, April 2005

  • Baldwin, Michael E.; Kain, John S.; Lakshmivarahan, S.
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  • DOI: 10.1175/MWR2892.1

Reduction of systematic biases in regional climate downscaling through ensemble forcing
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The Version-2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Monthly Precipitation Analysis (1979–Present)
journal, December 2003


Stochastic simulation of daily precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation
journal, February 1981


Performance assessment of three convective parameterization schemes in WRF for downscaling summer rainfall over South Africa
journal, August 2013


A New Double-Moment Microphysics Parameterization for Application in Cloud and Climate Models. Part I: Description
journal, June 2005

  • Morrison, H.; Curry, J. A.; Khvorostyanov, V. I.
  • Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 62, Issue 6
  • DOI: 10.1175/JAS3446.1

Improvement of the K-profile Model for the Planetary Boundary Layer based on Large Eddy Simulation Data
journal, May 2003


Impacts of cumulus convective parameterization schemes on summer monsoon precipitation simulation over China
journal, October 2011


Impact of Microphysics Parameterizations on Simulations of the 27 October 2010 Great Salt Lake–Effect Snowstorm
journal, February 2015


Sensitivity of U.S. summer precipitation to model resolution and convective parameterizations across gray zone resolutions: Sensitivity Across Gray Zone Resolutions
journal, March 2017

  • Gao, Yang; Leung, L. Ruby; Zhao, Chun
  • Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 122, Issue 5
  • DOI: 10.1002/2016JD025896

Does increasing the spatial resolution of a regional climate model improve the simulated daily precipitation?
journal, November 2012

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Multidecadal Evaluation of WRF Downscaling Capabilities over Western Australia in Simulating Rainfall and Temperature Extremes
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Comparison of the Diurnal Precipitation Cycle in Convection-Resolving and Non-Convection-Resolving Mesoscale Models
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Use of the gamma distribution to represent monthly rainfall in Africa for drought monitoring applications
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A Comparison of Precipitation Forecast Skill between Small Convection-Allowing and Large Convection-Parameterizing Ensembles
journal, August 2009


Added value of convection permitting seasonal simulations
journal, April 2013


Object-Based Verification of Precipitation Forecasts. Part II: Application to Convective Rain Systems
journal, July 2006

  • Davis, Christopher; Brown, Barbara; Bullock, Randy
  • Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 134, Issue 7
  • DOI: 10.1175/MWR3146.1

Sensitivity of Precipitation Statistics to Resolution, Microphysics, and Convective Parameterization: A Case Study with the High-Resolution WRF Climate Model over Europe
journal, August 2015

  • Pieri, Alexandre B.; von Hardenberg, Jost; Parodi, Antonio
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  • DOI: 10.1175/JHM-D-14-0221.1

NCEP–DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis (R-2)
journal, November 2002


A Model Fitting Analysis of Daily Rainfall Data
journal, January 1984

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Towards Assessing NARCCAP Regional Climate Model Credibility for the North American Monsoon: Current Climate Simulations
journal, November 2013

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  • Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 22
  • DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00538.1

    Works referencing / citing this record:

    Reduction of systematic biases in regional climate downscaling through ensemble forcing
    journal, February 2011


    Does increasing the spatial resolution of a regional climate model improve the simulated daily precipitation?
    journal, November 2012

    • Chan, Steven C.; Kendon, Elizabeth J.; Fowler, Hayley J.
    • Climate Dynamics, Vol. 41, Issue 5-6
    • DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1568-9

    Impacts of cumulus convective parameterization schemes on summer monsoon precipitation simulation over China
    journal, October 2011


    Object-Based Verification of Precipitation Forecasts. Part I: Methodology and Application to Mesoscale Rain Areas
    journal, July 2006

    • Davis, Christopher; Brown, Barbara; Bullock, Randy
    • Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 134, Issue 7
    • DOI: 10.1175/mwr3145.1

    Impact of Microphysics Parameterizations on Simulations of the 27 October 2010 Great Salt Lake–Effect Snowstorm
    journal, February 2015


    Development of an Automated Classification Procedure for Rainfall Systems
    journal, April 2005

    • Baldwin, Michael E.; Kain, John S.; Lakshmivarahan, S.
    • Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 133, Issue 4
    • DOI: 10.1175/mwr2892.1

    A Model Fitting Analysis of Daily Rainfall Data
    journal, January 1984

    • Stern, R. D.; Coe, R.
    • Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (General), Vol. 147, Issue 1
    • DOI: 10.2307/2981736

    Sensitivity of WRF cloud microphysics to simulations of a severe thunderstorm event over Southeast India
    journal, January 2010


    The Version-2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Monthly Precipitation Analysis (1979–Present)
    journal, December 2003


    The Diurnal Cycle and Its Depiction in the Community Climate System Model
    journal, March 2004


    The potential of an observational data set for calibration of a computationally expensive computer model
    journal, January 2013

    • McNeall, D. J.; Challenor, P. G.; Gattiker, J. R.
    • Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 6, Issue 5
    • DOI: 10.5194/gmd-6-1715-2013

    The Impact of Different WRF Model Physical Parameterizations and Their Interactions on Warm Season MCS Rainfall
    journal, December 2005

    • Jankov, Isidora; Gallus, William A.; Segal, Moti
    • Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 20, Issue 6
    • DOI: 10.1175/waf888.1

    Application of Object-Based Time-Domain Diagnostics for Tracking Precipitation Systems in Convection-Allowing Models
    journal, June 2014

    • Clark, Adam J.; Bullock, Randy G.; Jensen, Tara L.
    • Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 29, Issue 3
    • DOI: 10.1175/waf-d-13-00098.1

    Comparison of the Diurnal Precipitation Cycle in Convection-Resolving and Non-Convection-Resolving Mesoscale Models
    journal, October 2007

    • Clark, Adam J.; Gallus, William A.; Chen, Tsing-Chang
    • Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 135, Issue 10
    • DOI: 10.1175/mwr3467.1

    Benefit of convection permitting climate model simulations in the representation of convective precipitation
    journal, August 2014


    Multidecadal Evaluation of WRF Downscaling Capabilities over Western Australia in Simulating Rainfall and Temperature Extremes
    journal, February 2015

    • Andrys, Julia; Lyons, Thomas J.; Kala, Jatin
    • Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Vol. 54, Issue 2
    • DOI: 10.1175/jamc-d-14-0212.1

    The Kain–Fritsch Convective Parameterization: An Update
    journal, January 2004


    Sensitivity of U.S. summer precipitation to model resolution and convective parameterizations across gray zone resolutions: Sensitivity Across Gray Zone Resolutions
    journal, March 2017

    • Gao, Yang; Leung, L. Ruby; Zhao, Chun
    • Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 122, Issue 5
    • DOI: 10.1002/2016jd025896

    Sensitivity of a Simulated Squall Line to Horizontal Resolution and Parameterization of Microphysics
    journal, January 2012


    Object-Based Verification of Precipitation Forecasts. Part II: Application to Convective Rain Systems
    journal, July 2006

    • Davis, Christopher; Brown, Barbara; Bullock, Randy
    • Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 134, Issue 7
    • DOI: 10.1175/mwr3146.1

    Added value of convection permitting seasonal simulations
    journal, April 2013


    Earth System Modeling 2.0: A Blueprint for Models That Learn From Observations and Targeted High-Resolution Simulations: EARTH SYSTEM MODELING 2.0
    journal, December 2017

    • Schneider, Tapio; Lan, Shiwei; Stuart, Andrew
    • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 44, Issue 24
    • DOI: 10.1002/2017gl076101

    Regional Climate Modeling: Progress, Challenges, and Prospects
    journal, January 2004

    • Wang, Yuqing; Leung, L. Ruby; McGREGOR, John L.
    • Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II, Vol. 82, Issue 6
    • DOI: 10.2151/jmsj.82.1599

    Performance assessment of three convective parameterization schemes in WRF for downscaling summer rainfall over South Africa
    journal, August 2013


    Stochastic simulation of daily precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation
    journal, February 1981


    Use of the gamma distribution to represent monthly rainfall in Africa for drought monitoring applications
    journal, January 2007

    • Husak, Gregory J.; Michaelsen, Joel; Funk, Chris
    • International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 27, Issue 7
    • DOI: 10.1002/joc.1441

    Analyses for High‐Resolution Projections Through the End of the 21st Century for Precipitation Extremes Over the United States
    journal, October 2018

    • Zobel, Zachary; Wang, Jiali; Wuebbles, Donald J.
    • Earth's Future, Vol. 6, Issue 10
    • DOI: 10.1029/2018ef000956

    Evaluation of Global Precipitation in Reanalyses
    journal, September 2008

    • Bosilovich, Michael G.; Chen, Junye; Robertson, Franklin R.
    • Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Vol. 47, Issue 9
    • DOI: 10.1175/2008jamc1921.1

    Large ensemble modeling of the last deglacial retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet: comparison of simple and advanced statistical techniques
    journal, January 2016

    • Pollard, David; Chang, Won; Haran, Murali
    • Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 5
    • DOI: 10.5194/gmd-9-1697-2016

    Sensitivity of the Modeled North American Monsoon Regional Climate to Convective Parameterization
    journal, May 2002


    NCEP–DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis (R-2)
    journal, November 2002

    • Kanamitsu, Masao; Ebisuzaki, Wesley; Woollen, Jack
    • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 83, Issue 11
    • DOI: 10.1175/bams-83-11-1631

    Towards Assessing NARCCAP Regional Climate Model Credibility for the North American Monsoon: Current Climate Simulations
    journal, November 2013

    • Bukovsky, Melissa S.; Gochis, David J.; Mearns, Linda O.
    • Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 22
    • DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-12-00538.1

    The added value to global model projections of climate change by dynamical downscaling: A case study over the continental U.S. using the GISS-ModelE2 and WRF models: THE VALUE ADDED BY TYPE-4 DD
    journal, October 2012

    • Racherla, P. N.; Shindell, D. T.; Faluvegi, G. S.
    • Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 117, Issue D20
    • DOI: 10.1029/2012jd018091

    Introduction to special section: Regional Climate Modeling Revisited
    journal, March 1999

    • Giorgi, Filippo; Mearns, Linda O.
    • Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 104, Issue D6
    • DOI: 10.1029/98jd02072

    A Comparison of Precipitation Forecast Skill between Small Convection-Allowing and Large Convection-Parameterizing Ensembles
    journal, August 2009


    Improvement of the K-profile Model for the Planetary Boundary Layer based on Large Eddy Simulation Data
    journal, May 2003


    A New Double-Moment Microphysics Parameterization for Application in Cloud and Climate Models. Part I: Description
    journal, June 2005

    • Morrison, H.; Curry, J. A.; Khvorostyanov, V. I.
    • Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 62, Issue 6
    • DOI: 10.1175/jas3446.1

    Statistical calibration of climate system properties
    journal, September 2009


    Precipitation Characteristics in Eighteen Coupled Climate Models
    journal, September 2006


    Parameterization-Induced Error Characteristics of MM5 and WRF Operated in Climate Mode over the Alpine Region: An Ensemble-Based Analysis
    journal, June 2011


    How Physical Parameterizations Can Modulate Internal Variability in a Regional Climate Model
    journal, February 2012

    • Crétat, Julien; Pohl, Benjamin
    • Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 69, Issue 2
    • DOI: 10.1175/jas-d-11-0109.1

    Added value of high resolution models in simulating global precipitation characteristics: Improvement of precipitation simulation in high resolution models
    journal, December 2016

    • Zhang, Lixia; Wu, Peili; Zhou, Tianjun
    • Atmospheric Science Letters, Vol. 17, Issue 12
    • DOI: 10.1002/asl.715

    Diurnal Variability of the Hydrologic Cycle in a General Circulation Model
    journal, January 1991


    Downscaling with a nested regional climate model in near-surface fields over the contiguous United States: WRF dynamical downscaling
    journal, July 2014

    • Wang, Jiali; Kotamarthi, Veerabhadra R.
    • Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 119, Issue 14
    • DOI: 10.1002/2014jd021696

    Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmospheres: RRTM, a validated correlated-k model for the longwave
    journal, July 1997

    • Mlawer, Eli J.; Taubman, Steven J.; Brown, Patrick D.
    • Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 102, Issue D14
    • DOI: 10.1029/97jd00237

    The next generation of NWP: explicit forecasts of convection using the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model
    journal, January 2004

    • Done, James; Davis, Christopher A.; Weisman, Morris
    • Atmospheric Science Letters, Vol. 5, Issue 6
    • DOI: 10.1002/asl.72

    Sensitivity of Precipitation Statistics to Resolution, Microphysics, and Convective Parameterization: A Case Study with the High-Resolution WRF Climate Model over Europe
    journal, August 2015

    • Pieri, Alexandre B.; von Hardenberg, Jost; Parodi, Antonio
    • Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 16, Issue 4
    • DOI: 10.1175/jhm-d-14-0221.1

    Model performance in spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation: New methods for identifying value added by a regional climate model: Value added by a regional climate model
    journal, February 2015

    • Wang, Jiali; Swati, F. N. U.; Stein, Michael L.
    • Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 120, Issue 4
    • DOI: 10.1002/2014jd022434

    Automated quantitative image analysis of nanoparticle assembly
    journal, January 2015

    • Murthy, Chaitanya R.; Gao, Bo; Tao, Andrea R.
    • Nanoscale, Vol. 7, Issue 21
    • DOI: 10.1039/c5nr00809c

    Regional climate model simulation of summer precipitation diurnal cycle over the United States
    journal, January 2004


    Sensitivity of WRF to driving data and physics options on a seasonal time-scale for the southwest of Western Australia
    journal, April 2014


    Changes in Spatiotemporal Precipitation Patterns in Changing Climate Conditions
    journal, December 2016