Global Freshwater Availability Below Normal Conditions and Population Impact Under 1.5 and 2 °C Stabilization Scenarios

Liu, Wenbin; Lim, Wee Ho; Sun, Fubao; Mitchell, Dann; Wang, Hong; Chen, Deliang; Bethke, Ingo; Shiogama, Hideo; Fischer, Erich

doi:10.1029/2018GL078789

Title: Global Freshwater Availability Below Normal Conditions and Population Impact Under 1.5 and 2 °C Stabilization Scenarios

Journal Article · 02 August 2018 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078789 · OSTI ID:1544201

^[1];

^[2];

^[3];

^[4];

^[1];

^[5];

^[6];

^[7];

^[8]

Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China)
Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China) ; Univ. of Oxford (United Kingdom)
Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China); Hexi Univ., Zhangye (China)
Bristol Univ. (United Kingdom)
Univ. of Gothenburg (Sweden)
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway)
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba (Japan)
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich (Switzerland)

Based on the large ensembles of the half a degree additional warming, prognosis, and projected impacts historical, +1.5 and +2 °C experiments, we quantify changes in the magnitude of water availability (i.e., precipitation minus actual evapotranspiration; a function of monthly precipitation flux, latent heat flux, and surface air temperature) below normal conditions (less than median, e.g., 20th percentile water availability). In this study, we found that, relative to the historical experiment, water availability below normal conditions of the +1.5 and +2 °C experiments would decrease in the midlatitudes and the tropics, indicating that hydrological drought is likely to increase in warmer worlds. These cause more (less) people in East Asia, Central Europe, South Asia, and Southeast Asia (West Africa and Alaska/Northwest Canada) to be exposed to water shortage. Lastly, stabilizing warming at 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C would limit population impact in most of the regions, less effective in Alaska/Northwest Canada, Southeast Asia, and Amazon. Globally, this reduced population impact is ~117 million people.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Cite

Export

Save

Research Organization:: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231; 2016YFC0401401; 2016YFA0602402; ns9082k; 261821; NE/N014057/1; 2017PC0068; ZDRW-ZS-2017-3-1

OSTI ID:: 1544201

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1472150

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, Issue 18; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

References (69)

Interacting effects of climate change and habitat fragmentation on drought-sensitive butterflies Oliver, Tom H.; Marshall, Harry H.; Morecroft, Mike D. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 5, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2746	journal	August 2015
Filling the white space on maps of European runoff trends: estimates from a multi-model ensemble Stahl, K.; Tallaksen, L. M.; Hannaford, J. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 16, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-2035-2012	journal	January 2012
Comparing Large-Scale Hydrological Model Simulations to Observed Runoff Percentiles in Europe Gudmundsson, Lukas; Tallaksen, Lena M.; Stahl, Kerstin Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 13, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-11-083.1	journal	April 2012
Local flow regulation and irrigation raise global human water consumption and footprint Jaramillo, F.; Destouni, G. Science, Vol. 350, Issue 6265 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aad1010	journal	December 2015
Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment Prudhomme, Christel; Giuntoli, Ignazio; Robinson, Emma L. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222473110	journal	December 2013
Future long-term changes in global water resources driven by socio-economic and climatic changes Alcamo, Joseph; FlÖRke, Martina; MÄRker, Michael Hydrological Sciences Journal, Vol. 52, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.52.2.247	journal	April 2007
Towards a global water scarcity risk assessment framework: incorporation of probability distributions and hydro-climatic variability Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H. Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 11, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/2/024006	journal	February 2016
Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models Hagemann, S.; Chen, C.; Clark, D. B. Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 4, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-129-2013	journal	January 2013
Four billion people facing severe water scarcity Mekonnen, Mesfin M.; Hoekstra, Arjen Y. Science Advances, Vol. 2, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1500323	journal	February 2016
Evaluating the performance of a deterministic daily rainfall–runoff model in a low-flow context Smakhtin, V. Y.; Sami, K.; Hughes, D. A. Hydrological Processes, Vol. 12, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1085(19980430)12:5<797::AID-HYP632>3.0.CO;2-S	journal	April 1998
Comparison of hydrological model structures based on recession and low flow simulations Staudinger, M.; Stahl, K.; Seibert, J. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 15, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-3447-2011	journal	January 2011
Water availability in +2°C and +4°C worlds Fung, Fai; Lopez, Ana; New, Mark Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 369, Issue 1934 https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2010.0293	journal	January 2011
Influence of temperature and precipitation variability on near-term snow trends Mankin, Justin S.; Diffenbaugh, Noah S. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 45, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2357-4	journal	October 2014
Unprecedented climate events: Historical changes, aspirational targets, and national commitments Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Singh, Deepti; Mankin, Justin S. Science Advances, Vol. 4, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aao3354	journal	February 2018
A general framework for understanding the response of the water cycle to global warming over land and ocean Roderick, M. L.; Sun, F.; Lim, W. H. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 18, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1575-2014	journal	January 2014
Impact of climate change on low-flows in the river Meuse de Wit, M. J. M.; van den Hurk, B.; Warmerdam, P. M. M. Climatic Change, Vol. 82, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9195-2	journal	January 2007
Hydroclimatic projections for the Murray-Darling Basin based on an ensemble derived from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR4 climate models: HYDROCLIMATIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE MDB Sun, Fubao; Roderick, Michael L.; Lim, Wee Ho Water Resources Research, Vol. 47, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR009829	journal	April 2011
Half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI): background and experimental design Mitchell, Daniel; AchutaRao, Krishna; Allen, Myles Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 10, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-571-2017	journal	January 2017
Projected drought risk in 1.5°C and 2°C warmer climates: Drought in 1.5°C and 2°C Warmer Climates Lehner, Flavio; Coats, Sloan; Stocker, Thomas F. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 44, Issue 14 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074117	journal	July 2017
Frequency of precipitation and temperature extremes over France in an anthropogenic scenario: Model results and statistical correction according to observed values Deque, M. Global and Planetary Change, Vol. 57, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.11.030	journal	May 2007
Global and Continental Drought in the Second Half of the Twentieth Century: Severity–Area–Duration Analysis and Temporal Variability of Large-Scale Events Sheffield, J.; Andreadis, K. M.; Wood, E. F. Journal of Climate, Vol. 22, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2722.1	journal	April 2009
The global-scale impacts of climate change on water resources and flooding under new climate and socio-economic scenarios Arnell, Nigel W.; Lloyd-Hughes, Ben Climatic Change, Vol. 122, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0948-4	journal	November 2013
Global threats to human water security and river biodiversity Vörösmarty, C. J.; McIntyre, P. B.; Gessner, M. O. Nature, Vol. 467, Issue 7315 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09440	journal	September 2010
Atmospheric component of the MPI-M Earth System Model: ECHAM6: ECHAM6 Stevens, Bjorn; Giorgetta, Marco; Esch, Monika Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 5, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1002/jame.20015	journal	April 2013
The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change Hawkins, Ed; Sutton, Rowan Climate Dynamics, Vol. 37, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0810-6	journal	April 2010
1.5 °C and climate research after the Paris Agreement Hulme, Mike Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2939	journal	February 2016
Bias correction of regional climate model simulations for hydrological climate-change impact studies: Review and evaluation of different methods Teutschbein, Claudia; Seibert, Jan Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 456-457 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.05.052	journal	August 2012
Growing water scarcity in agriculture: future challenge to global water security Falkenmark, Malin Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 371, Issue 2002 https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2012.0410	journal	November 2013
Anthropogenic climate change detected in European renewable freshwater resources Gudmundsson, Lukas; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Zhang, Xuebin Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3416	journal	October 2017
Global assessment of agreement among streamflow projections using CMIP5 model outputs Koirala, Sujan; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Mahendran, Roobavannan Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 9, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/6/064017	journal	May 2014
Streamflow Data from Small Basins: A Challenging Test to High-Resolution Regional Climate Modeling Stahl, Kerstin; Tallaksen, Lena M.; Gudmundsson, Lukas Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 12, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JHM1356.1	journal	October 2011
Future global water resources with respect to climate change and water withdrawals as estimated by a dynamic global vegetation model Murray, S. J.; Foster, P. N.; Prentice, I. C. Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 448-449 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.02.044	journal	July 2012
Realizing the impacts of a 1.5 °C warmer world Mitchell, Daniel; James, Rachel; Forster, Piers M. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3055	journal	June 2016
The Canadian Fourth Generation Atmospheric Global Climate Model (CanAM4). Part I: Representation of Physical Processes von Salzen, Knut; Scinocca, John F.; McFarlane, Norman A. Atmosphere-Ocean, Vol. 51, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.2012.755610	journal	February 2013
Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Donat, Markus G.; Pitman, Andy J. Nature, Vol. 529, Issue 7587 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature16542	journal	January 2016
Global Hydrological Cycles and World Water Resources Oki, T. Science, Vol. 313, Issue 5790 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1128845	journal	August 2006
Bias reduction in short records of satellite soil moisture Reichle, R. H. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 31, Issue 19 https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL020938	journal	January 2004
Global drought and severe drought-affected populations in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer worlds Liu, Wenbin; Sun, Fubao; Lim, Wee Ho Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 9, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-267-2018	journal	January 2018
Drought in the Anthropocene Van Loon, Anne F.; Gleeson, Tom; Clark, Julian Nature Geoscience, Vol. 9, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2646	journal	February 2016
Statistical and dynamical downscaling of the Seine basin climate for hydro-meteorological studies Boé, J.; Terray, L.; Habets, F. International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 27, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1602	journal	January 2007
A global water scarcity assessment under Shared Socio-economic Pathways – Part 2: Water availability and scarcity Hanasaki, N.; Fujimori, S.; Yamamoto, T. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 17, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2393-2013	journal	January 2013
Water scarcity assessments in the past, present, and future: REVIEW ON WATER SCARCITY ASSESSMENT Liu, Junguo; Yang, Hong; Gosling, Simon N. Earth's Future, Vol. 5, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016EF000518	journal	June 2017
Hydrological drought explained: Hydrological drought explained Van Loon, Anne F. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water, Vol. 2, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1085	journal	April 2015
Projecting streamflow in the Tangwang River basin (China) using a rainfall generator and two hydrological models Liu, W.; Zhang, A.; Wang, L. Climate Research, Vol. 62, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01261	journal	January 2015
Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change Schewe, Jacob; Heinke, Jens; Gerten, Dieter Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222460110	journal	December 2013
Human Water Use Impacts on the Strength of the Continental Sink for Atmospheric Water Keune, Jessica; Sulis, Mauro; Kollet, Stefan Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL077621	journal	May 2018
Climate change and global water resources: SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios Arnell, Nigel W. Global Environmental Change, Vol. 14, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.006	journal	April 2004
The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M – Part 1: Description and basic evaluation of the physical climate Bentsen, M.; Bethke, I.; Debernard, J. B. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 6, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-687-2013	journal	January 2013
Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Lissner, Tabea K.; Fischer, Erich M. Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 7, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-327-2016	journal	January 2016
Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability Deser, Clara; Phillips, Adam; Bourdette, Vincent Climate Dynamics, Vol. 38, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0977-x	journal	December 2010
The 'best available science' to inform 1.5 °C policy choices Peters, Glen P. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3000	journal	April 2016
Projecting and Attributing Future Changes of Evaporative Demand over China in CMIP5 Climate Models Liu, Wenbin; Sun, Fubao Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 18, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0204.1	journal	April 2017
Influence of internal variability on population exposure to hydroclimatic changes Mankin, Justin S.; Viviroli, Daniel; Mekonnen, Mesfin M. Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 12, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5efc	journal	March 2017
Water scarcity: Fact or fiction? Rijsberman, Frank R. Agricultural Water Management, Vol. 80, Issue 1-3 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2005.07.001	journal	February 2006
A Climate Data Record (CDR) for the global terrestrial water budget: 1984–2010 Zhang, Yu; Pan, Ming; Sheffield, Justin Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 22, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-241-2018	journal	January 2018
Global Multimodel Analysis of Drought in Runoff for the Second Half of the Twentieth Century van Huijgevoort, M. H. J.; Hazenberg, P.; van Lanen, H. A. J. Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 14, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-12-0186.1	journal	October 2013
Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C Schleussner, C. -F.; Lissner, T. K.; Fischer, E. M. Earth System Dynamics Discussions, Vol. 6, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-6-2447-2015	journal	January 2015
Water scarcity assessments in the past, present, and future Liu, Junguo; Yang, Hong; Gosling, Simon N. Columbia University https://doi.org/10.7916/d8-jsnt-3b43	text	January 2017
Projected drought risk in 1.5°C and 2°C warmer climates Lehner, Flavio; Coats, Sloan John; Stocker, Thomas F. Columbia University https://doi.org/10.7916/d8087h87	text	January 2017
Unprecedented climate events: Historical changes, aspirational targets, and national commitments Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Singh, Deepti; Mankin, Justin S. Columbia University https://doi.org/10.7916/d8087ndp	text	January 2018
Water Scarcity: Fact or Fiction Yu, Xiaomeng Proceedings of the 2016 International Conference on Education, Management and Computing Technology (ICEMCT-16) https://doi.org/10.2991/icemct-16.2016.191	conference	January 2016
Half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI): Background and experimental design Mitchell, Daniel; AchutaRao, Krishna; Allen, Myles ETH Zurich https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000128890	text	January 2017
Influence of internal variability on population exposure to hydroclimatic changes Mankin, Justin S.; Viviroli, Daniel; Mekonnen, Mesfin M. IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.5167/uzh-136521	text	January 2017
Bias correction of regional climate model simulations for hydrological climate-change impact studies: Review and evaluation of different methods Teutschbein, Claudia; Seibert, Jan Elsevier https://doi.org/10.5167/uzh-67262	text	January 2012
Projected drought risk in 1.5°C and 2°C warmer climates Lehner, Flavio; Coats, Sloan; Stocker, Thomas American Geophysical Union https://doi.org/10.7892/boris.108188	text	January 2017
Half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI): Background and experimental design Mitchell, D.; AchutaRao, K.; Allen, M. Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository https://doi.org/10.17863/cam.48389	text	January 2017
Water scarcity assessments in the past, present and future Liu, Junguo; Yang, Hong; Gosling, Simon N. ETH Zurich https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000129859	text	January 2017
Comparison of hydrological model structures based on recession and low flow simulations Staudinger, Maria; Stahl, K.; Seibert, Jan Copernicus https://doi.org/10.5167/uzh-58035	text	January 2011
Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: The case of 1.5 °c and 2 °c Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Lissner, Tabea K.; Fischer, Erich M. ETH Zurich https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000116569	text	January 2016

Cited By (5)

Amplification of risks to water supply at 1.5 °C and 2 °C in drying climates: a case study for Melbourne, Australia Henley, Benjamin J.; Peel, Murray C.; Nathan, Rory Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 14, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab26ef	journal	August 2019
Evaluation and machine learning improvement of global hydrological model-based flood simulations Yang, Tao; Sun, Fubao; Gentine, Pierre Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 14, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4d5e	journal	November 2019
The human imperative of stabilizing global climate change at 1.5°C Hoegh-Guldberg, O.; Jacob, D.; Taylor, M. Science, Vol. 365, Issue 6459 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaw6974	journal	September 2019
Arctic amplification under global warming of 1.5 and 2 °C in NorESM1-Happi Graff, Lise S.; Iversen, Trond; Bethke, Ingo Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 10, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-569-2019	journal	January 2019
Projected increases in magnitude and socioeconomic exposure of global droughts in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer climates Gu, Lei; Chen, Jie; Yin, Jiabo Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 24, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-451-2020	journal	January 2020

Similar Records

Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C

Journal Article · 2018 · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. A, Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences · OSTI ID:1437030

Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P.; +19 more

mtDNA sequences suggest a recent evolutionary divergence for Beringian and Northern American populations

Journal Article · 1993 · American Journal of Human Genetics; (United States) · OSTI ID:5017341

Shields, G F; Schmiechen, A M; Reed, J K; +4 more

A regional nuclear conflict would compromise global food security

Journal Article · 2020 · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · OSTI ID:1625063

Jägermeyr, Jonas; Robock, Alan; Elliott, Joshua; +16 more

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
58 GEOSCIENCES
1.5 °C warming
water availability
global scale
shortage
population

Title: Global Freshwater Availability Below Normal Conditions and Population Impact Under 1.5 and 2 °C Stabilization Scenarios

Citation Formats

References (69)

Cited By (5)

Similar Records

Related Subjects