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Title: Global Freshwater Availability Below Normal Conditions and Population Impact Under 1.5 and 2 °C Stabilization Scenarios

Journal Article · · Geophysical Research Letters
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [3]; ORCiD logo [4]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [5]; ORCiD logo [6]; ORCiD logo [7]; ORCiD logo [8]
  1. Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China)
  2. Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China) ; Univ. of Oxford (United Kingdom)
  3. Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China); Hexi Univ., Zhangye (China)
  4. Bristol Univ. (United Kingdom)
  5. Univ. of Gothenburg (Sweden)
  6. Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway)
  7. National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba (Japan)
  8. Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich (Switzerland)

Based on the large ensembles of the half a degree additional warming, prognosis, and projected impacts historical, +1.5 and +2 °C experiments, we quantify changes in the magnitude of water availability (i.e., precipitation minus actual evapotranspiration; a function of monthly precipitation flux, latent heat flux, and surface air temperature) below normal conditions (less than median, e.g., 20th percentile water availability). In this study, we found that, relative to the historical experiment, water availability below normal conditions of the +1.5 and +2 °C experiments would decrease in the midlatitudes and the tropics, indicating that hydrological drought is likely to increase in warmer worlds. These cause more (less) people in East Asia, Central Europe, South Asia, and Southeast Asia (West Africa and Alaska/Northwest Canada) to be exposed to water shortage. Lastly, stabilizing warming at 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C would limit population impact in most of the regions, less effective in Alaska/Northwest Canada, Southeast Asia, and Amazon. Globally, this reduced population impact is ~117 million people.

Research Organization:
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC02-05CH11231; 2016YFC0401401; 2016YFA0602402; ns9082k; 261821; NE/N014057/1; 2017PC0068; ZDRW-ZS-2017-3-1
OSTI ID:
1544201
Alternate ID(s):
OSTI ID: 1472150
Journal Information:
Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, Issue 18; ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher:
American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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Cited By (5)

Amplification of risks to water supply at 1.5 °C and 2 °C in drying climates: a case study for Melbourne, Australia journal August 2019
Evaluation and machine learning improvement of global hydrological model-based flood simulations journal November 2019
The human imperative of stabilizing global climate change at 1.5°C journal September 2019
Arctic amplification under global warming of 1.5 and 2 °C in NorESM1-Happi journal January 2019
Projected increases in magnitude and socioeconomic exposure of global droughts in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer climates journal January 2020

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