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Title: Global Freshwater Availability Below Normal Conditions and Population Impact Under 1.5 and 2 °C Stabilization Scenarios

Abstract

Based on the large ensembles of the half a degree additional warming, prognosis, and projected impacts historical, +1.5 and +2 °C experiments, we quantify changes in the magnitude of water availability (i.e., precipitation minus actual evapotranspiration; a function of monthly precipitation flux, latent heat flux, and surface air temperature) below normal conditions (less than median, e.g., 20th percentile water availability). In this study, we found that, relative to the historical experiment, water availability below normal conditions of the +1.5 and +2 °C experiments would decrease in the midlatitudes and the tropics, indicating that hydrological drought is likely to increase in warmer worlds. These cause more (less) people in East Asia, Central Europe, South Asia, and Southeast Asia (West Africa and Alaska/Northwest Canada) to be exposed to water shortage. Lastly, stabilizing warming at 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C would limit population impact in most of the regions, less effective in Alaska/Northwest Canada, Southeast Asia, and Amazon. Globally, this reduced population impact is ~117 million people.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [3]; ORCiD logo [4]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [5]; ORCiD logo [6]; ORCiD logo [7]; ORCiD logo [8]
  1. Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China)
  2. Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China) ; Univ. of Oxford (United Kingdom)
  3. Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China); Hexi Univ., Zhangye (China)
  4. Bristol Univ. (United Kingdom)
  5. Univ. of Gothenburg (Sweden)
  6. Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway)
  7. National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba (Japan)
  8. Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich (Switzerland)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
OSTI Identifier:
1544201
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1472150
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC02-05CH11231; 2016YFC0401401; 2016YFA0602402; ns9082k; 261821; NE/N014057/1; 2017PC0068; ZDRW-ZS-2017-3-1
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Geophysical Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 45; Journal Issue: 18; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; 58 GEOSCIENCES; 1.5 °C warming; water availability; global scale; shortage; population

Citation Formats

Liu, Wenbin, Lim, Wee Ho, Sun, Fubao, Mitchell, Dann, Wang, Hong, Chen, Deliang, Bethke, Ingo, Shiogama, Hideo, and Fischer, Erich. Global Freshwater Availability Below Normal Conditions and Population Impact Under 1.5 and 2 °C Stabilization Scenarios. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1029/2018GL078789.
Liu, Wenbin, Lim, Wee Ho, Sun, Fubao, Mitchell, Dann, Wang, Hong, Chen, Deliang, Bethke, Ingo, Shiogama, Hideo, & Fischer, Erich. Global Freshwater Availability Below Normal Conditions and Population Impact Under 1.5 and 2 °C Stabilization Scenarios. United States. doi:10.1029/2018GL078789.
Liu, Wenbin, Lim, Wee Ho, Sun, Fubao, Mitchell, Dann, Wang, Hong, Chen, Deliang, Bethke, Ingo, Shiogama, Hideo, and Fischer, Erich. Thu . "Global Freshwater Availability Below Normal Conditions and Population Impact Under 1.5 and 2 °C Stabilization Scenarios". United States. doi:10.1029/2018GL078789. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1544201.
@article{osti_1544201,
title = {Global Freshwater Availability Below Normal Conditions and Population Impact Under 1.5 and 2 °C Stabilization Scenarios},
author = {Liu, Wenbin and Lim, Wee Ho and Sun, Fubao and Mitchell, Dann and Wang, Hong and Chen, Deliang and Bethke, Ingo and Shiogama, Hideo and Fischer, Erich},
abstractNote = {Based on the large ensembles of the half a degree additional warming, prognosis, and projected impacts historical, +1.5 and +2 °C experiments, we quantify changes in the magnitude of water availability (i.e., precipitation minus actual evapotranspiration; a function of monthly precipitation flux, latent heat flux, and surface air temperature) below normal conditions (less than median, e.g., 20th percentile water availability). In this study, we found that, relative to the historical experiment, water availability below normal conditions of the +1.5 and +2 °C experiments would decrease in the midlatitudes and the tropics, indicating that hydrological drought is likely to increase in warmer worlds. These cause more (less) people in East Asia, Central Europe, South Asia, and Southeast Asia (West Africa and Alaska/Northwest Canada) to be exposed to water shortage. Lastly, stabilizing warming at 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C would limit population impact in most of the regions, less effective in Alaska/Northwest Canada, Southeast Asia, and Amazon. Globally, this reduced population impact is ~117 million people.},
doi = {10.1029/2018GL078789},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = 18,
volume = 45,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {8}
}

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