Title: Predicting Near-Term Changes in the Earth System: A Large Ensemble of Initialized Decadal Prediction Simulations Using the Community Earth System Model

Journal Article · · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
 [1];  [2];  [2];  [2];  [2];  [2];  [2];  [2];  [2];  [2];  [3]
  1. National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States); DOE/OSTI
  2. National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)
  3. Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, and Inst. of Arctic and Alpine Research
+ Show Author Affiliations

The objective of near-term climate prediction is to improve our fore-knowledge, from years to a decade or more in advance, of impactful climate changes that can in general be attributed to a combination of internal and externally forced variability. Predictions initialized using observations of past climate states are tested by comparing their ability to reproduce past climate evolution with that of uninitialized simulations in which the same radiative forcings are applied. A new set of decadal prediction (DP) simulations has recently been completed using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and is now available to the community. This new large-ensemble (LE) set (CESM-DPLE) is composed of historical simulations that are integrated forward for 10 years following initialization on 1 November of each year between 1954 and 2015. CESM-DPLE represents the “initialized” counterpart to the widely studied CESM Large Ensemble (CESM-LE); both simulation sets have 40-member ensembles, and they use identical model code and radiative forcings. Comparing CESM-DPLE to CESM-LE highlights the impacts of initialization on prediction skill and indicates that robust assessment and interpretation of DP skill may require much larger ensembles than current protocols recommend. CESM-DPLE exhibits significant and potentially useful prediction skill for a wide range of fields, regions, and time scales, and it shows widespread improvement over simpler benchmark forecasts as well as over a previous initialized system that was submitted to phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Finally, the new DP system offers new capabilities that will be of interest to a broad community pursuing Earth system prediction research.

Research Organization:
Univ. of California, Oakland, CA (United States); University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC02-05CH11231; FC02-97ER62402
OSTI ID:
1541807
Journal Information:
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Journal Name: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Journal Issue: 9 Vol. 99; ISSN 0003-0007
Publisher:
American Meteorological SocietyCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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Attributing the U.S. Southwest's Recent Shift Into Drier Conditions journal June 2018
Predicted Chance That Global Warming Will Temporarily Exceed 1.5 °C journal November 2018
Key Role of Internal Ocean Dynamics in Atlantic Multidecadal Variability During the Last Half Century journal December 2018
A Framework to Determine the Limits of Achievable Skill for Interannual to Decadal Climate Predictions journal March 2019
Enhancing Skill of Initialized Decadal Predictions Using a Dynamic Model of Drift journal August 2019
The Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) journal February 2020
A Review of the Role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and Associated Climate Impacts journal June 2019
Decadal predictability of late winter precipitation in western Europe through an ocean–jet stream connection journal July 2019
Robust skill of decadal climate predictions journal May 2019
Decadal trends in the ocean carbon sink journal May 2019
Multi-year prediction of European summer drought conditions for the agricultural sector journal November 2019
High predictability of terrestrial carbon fluxes from an initialized decadal prediction system journal December 2019
Predicting the variable ocean carbon sink journal April 2019
Predicting near-term variability in ocean carbon uptake journal January 2019

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