Attributing the Carbon Cycle Impacts of CMIP5 Historical and Future Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1)
Abstract
Abstract Historical global land use and land cover change (LULCC) emissions of 160 PgC represent a third of all human CO 2 emissions from 1850 to 2010. Future land management decisions will have large impacts on the global carbon cycle, with scenarios ranging from continued deforestation and wood harvest to mitigation scenarios that reduce total emissions through afforestation and conversion to bioenergy. Here we present a systematic assessment of Community Earth System Model (CESM1) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) historic and projection simulations, with and without LULCC. For the historical period, CESM produced a Net LULCC flux of 123 PgC to the atmosphere, removing −130 PgC from ecosystems while increasing wood product pools by 7 PgC. Historical LULCC fluxes were equally divided between conversion and wood harvest fluxes. For the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 afforestation scenario CESM produced a Net LULCC flux of 53 PgC to the atmosphere, removing −58 PgC out of the ecosystem and increasing wood product pools of 5 PgC. The afforestation offsets the Direct LULCC flux of 153 PgC with a negative Indirect LULCC flux of −94 PgC. For the RCP 8.5 high LULCC scenario, CESM produced a Net LULCC flux of 211 PgC, removing −227 PgC from ecosystems and increasing wood product poolsmore »
- Authors:
-
- National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
- Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1539735
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1438939
- Grant/Contract Number:
- SC0012972; FC03-97ER62402; DE‐FC03‐97ER62402/A010; DE‐SC0012972
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 123; Journal Issue: 5; Journal ID: ISSN 2169-8953
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 58 GEOSCIENCES; Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Geology
Citation Formats
Lawrence, Peter J., Lawrence, David M., and Hurtt, George C. Attributing the Carbon Cycle Impacts of CMIP5 Historical and Future Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1). United States: N. p., 2018.
Web. doi:10.1029/2017jg004348.
Lawrence, Peter J., Lawrence, David M., & Hurtt, George C. Attributing the Carbon Cycle Impacts of CMIP5 Historical and Future Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1). United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2017jg004348
Lawrence, Peter J., Lawrence, David M., and Hurtt, George C. Fri .
"Attributing the Carbon Cycle Impacts of CMIP5 Historical and Future Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1)". United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2017jg004348. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1539735.
@article{osti_1539735,
title = {Attributing the Carbon Cycle Impacts of CMIP5 Historical and Future Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1)},
author = {Lawrence, Peter J. and Lawrence, David M. and Hurtt, George C.},
abstractNote = {Abstract Historical global land use and land cover change (LULCC) emissions of 160 PgC represent a third of all human CO 2 emissions from 1850 to 2010. Future land management decisions will have large impacts on the global carbon cycle, with scenarios ranging from continued deforestation and wood harvest to mitigation scenarios that reduce total emissions through afforestation and conversion to bioenergy. Here we present a systematic assessment of Community Earth System Model (CESM1) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) historic and projection simulations, with and without LULCC. For the historical period, CESM produced a Net LULCC flux of 123 PgC to the atmosphere, removing −130 PgC from ecosystems while increasing wood product pools by 7 PgC. Historical LULCC fluxes were equally divided between conversion and wood harvest fluxes. For the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 afforestation scenario CESM produced a Net LULCC flux of 53 PgC to the atmosphere, removing −58 PgC out of the ecosystem and increasing wood product pools of 5 PgC. The afforestation offsets the Direct LULCC flux of 153 PgC with a negative Indirect LULCC flux of −94 PgC. For the RCP 8.5 high LULCC scenario, CESM produced a Net LULCC flux of 211 PgC, removing −227 PgC from ecosystems and increasing wood product pools of 15 PgC. The LULCC of the future RCP scenarios was dominated by wood harvest fluxes, which is a process that was not included in many of the CMIP5 models. The analysis framework also allowed the attribution of Indirect and Prior LULCC fluxes that offset the Direct LULCC fluxes in many cases.},
doi = {10.1029/2017jg004348},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences},
number = 5,
volume = 123,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {5}
}
Web of Science
Works referenced in this record:
Interactive Crop Management in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1): Seasonal Influences on Land–Atmosphere Fluxes
journal, July 2012
- Levis, Samuel; Bonan, Gordon B.; Kluzek, Erik
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 25, Issue 14
Carbon cost of plant nitrogen acquisition: global carbon cycle impact from an improved plant nitrogen cycle in the Community Land Model
journal, January 2016
- Shi, Mingjie; Fisher, Joshua B.; Brzostek, Edward R.
- Global Change Biology, Vol. 22, Issue 3
Uncertainties in the 20th century carbon budget associated with land use change: LUC UNCERTAINTIES IN 20TH CENTURY CARBON BUDGET
journal, February 2010
- Arora, V. K.; Boer, G. J.
- Global Change Biology, Vol. 16, Issue 12
The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) contribution to CMIP6:
rationale and experimental design
journal, January 2016
- Lawrence, David M.; Hurtt, George C.; Arneth, Almut
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 9
Interactions between land use change and carbon cycle feedbacks: Land Use and Carbon Cycle Feedbacks
journal, January 2017
- Mahowald, Natalie M.; Randerson, James T.; Lindsay, Keith
- Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 31, Issue 1
Comparing the influence of net and gross anthropogenic land-use and land-cover changes on the carbon cycle in the MPI-ESM
journal, January 2014
- Wilkenskjeld, S.; Kloster, S.; Pongratz, J.
- Biogeosciences, Vol. 11, Issue 17
Uncertainties in CMIP5 Climate Projections due to Carbon Cycle Feedbacks
journal, January 2014
- Friedlingstein, Pierre; Meinshausen, Malte; Arora, Vivek K.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 27, Issue 2
How much land-based greenhouse gas mitigation can be achieved without compromising food security and environmental goals?
journal, May 2013
- Smith, Pete; Haberl, Helmut; Popp, Alexander
- Global Change Biology, Vol. 19, Issue 8
Effects of model structural uncertainty on carbon cycle projections: biological nitrogen fixation as a case study
journal, April 2015
- Wieder, William R.; Cleveland, Cory C.; Lawrence, David M.
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 10, Issue 4
Improving canopy processes in the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) using global flux fields empirically inferred from FLUXNET data
journal, January 2011
- Bonan, Gordon B.; Lawrence, Peter J.; Oleson, Keith W.
- Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 116, Issue G2
Last Millennium Climate and Its Variability in CCSM4
journal, February 2013
- Landrum, Laura; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Wahl, Eugene R.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 4
Carbon–Concentration and Carbon–Climate Feedbacks in CMIP5 Earth System Models
journal, August 2013
- Arora, Vivek K.; Boer, George J.; Friedlingstein, Pierre
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 15
Representing leaf and root physiological traits in CLM improves global carbon and nitrogen cycling predictions: LEAF AND ROOT TRAITS IN CLM
journal, May 2016
- Ghimire, Bardan; Riley, William J.; Koven, Charles D.
- Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 8, Issue 2
Effect of increasing CO 2 on the terrestrial carbon cycle
journal, December 2014
- Schimel, David; Stephens, Britton B.; Fisher, Joshua B.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 112, Issue 2
Historical carbon dioxide emissions caused by land-use changes are possibly larger than assumed
journal, January 2017
- Arneth, A.; Sitch, S.; Pongratz, J.
- Nature Geoscience, Vol. 10, Issue 2
Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500–2100: 600 years of global gridded annual land-use transitions, wood harvest, and resulting secondary lands
journal, August 2011
- Hurtt, G. C.; Chini, L. P.; Frolking, S.
- Climatic Change, Vol. 109, Issue 1-2
RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100
journal, July 2011
- Thomson, Allison M.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Smith, Steven J.
- Climatic Change, Vol. 109, Issue 1-2
Terminology as a key uncertainty in net land use and land cover change carbon flux estimates
journal, January 2014
- Pongratz, J.; Reick, C. H.; Houghton, R. A.
- Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 5, Issue 1
Effects of global irrigation on the near-surface climate
journal, July 2008
- Sacks, William J.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Buenning, Nikolaus
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 33, Issue 2-3
Global Carbon Budget 2015
journal, January 2015
- Le Quéré, C.; Moriarty, R.; Andrew, R. M.
- Earth System Science Data, Vol. 7, Issue 2
Carbon emissions from land use and land-cover change
journal, January 2012
- Houghton, R. A.; House, J. I.; Pongratz, J.
- Biogeosciences, Vol. 9, Issue 12
Effect of Anthropogenic Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes on Climate and Land Carbon Storage in CMIP5 Projections for the Twenty-First Century
journal, September 2013
- Brovkin, V.; Boysen, L.; Arora, V. K.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 18
Global potential of biospheric carbon management for climate mitigation
journal, November 2014
- Canadell, Josep G.; Schulze, E. Detlef
- Nature Communications, Vol. 5, Issue 1
Evaluating the Land and Ocean Components of the Global Carbon Cycle in the CMIP5 Earth System Models
journal, September 2013
- Anav, A.; Friedlingstein, P.; Kidston, M.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 18
A theoretical framework for the net land-to-atmosphere CO 2 flux and its implications in the definition of "emissions from land-use change"
journal, January 2013
- Gasser, T.; Ciais, P.
- Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 4, Issue 1
RCP 8.5—A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions
journal, August 2011
- Riahi, Keywan; Rao, Shilpa; Krey, Volker
- Climatic Change, Vol. 109, Issue 1-2
The representative concentration pathways: an overview
journal, August 2011
- van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Edmonds, Jae; Kainuma, Mikiko
- Climatic Change, Vol. 109, Issue 1-2
The effect of vertically resolved soil biogeochemistry and alternate soil C and N models on C dynamics of CLM4
journal, January 2013
- Koven, C. D.; Riley, W. J.; Subin, Z. M.
- Biogeosciences, Vol. 10, Issue 11
The CCSM4 Land Simulation, 1850–2005: Assessment of Surface Climate and New Capabilities
journal, April 2012
- Lawrence, David M.; Oleson, Keith W.; Flanner, Mark G.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 25, Issue 7
The Community Land Model underestimates land-use CO 2 emissions by neglecting soil disturbance from cultivation
journal, January 2014
- Levis, S.; Hartman, M. D.; Bonan, G. B.
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 7, Issue 2
A Large and Persistent Carbon Sink in the World's Forests
journal, July 2011
- Pan, Y.; Birdsey, R. A.; Fang, J.
- Science, Vol. 333, Issue 6045
Quantifying the Effects of Historical Land Cover Conversion Uncertainty on Global Carbon and Climate Estimates
journal, January 2018
- Di Vittorio, A. V.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, Issue 2
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Variability in the Community Earth System Model: Evaluation and Transient Dynamics during the Twentieth and Twenty-First Centuries
journal, July 2013
- Keppel-Aleks, Gretchen; Randerson, James T.; Lindsay, Keith
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 13, p. 4447-4475
Preindustrial-Control and Twentieth-Century Carbon Cycle Experiments with the Earth System Model CESM1(BGC)
journal, December 2014
- Lindsay, Keith; Bonan, Gordon B.; Doney, Scott C.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 27, Issue 24
Response to Increasing Southern Hemisphere Winds in CCSM4
journal, October 2011
- Gent, Peter R.; Danabasoglu, Gokhan
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 24, Issue 19
Simulating the Biogeochemical and Biogeophysical Impacts of Transient Land Cover Change and Wood Harvest in the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) from 1850 to 2100
journal, May 2012
- Lawrence, Peter J.; Feddema, Johannes J.; Bonan, Gordon B.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 25, Issue 9
Quantifying carbon-nitrogen feedbacks in the Community Land Model (CLM4): CARBON-NITROGEN FEEDBACKS IN CLM4
journal, April 2010
- Bonan, Gordon B.; Levis, Samuel
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 37, Issue 7
Revised estimates of the annual net flux of carbon to the atmosphere from changes in land use and land management 1850-2000
journal, April 2003
- Houghton, R. A.
- Tellus B, Vol. 55, Issue 2
Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks
journal, October 2007
- Canadell, J. G.; Le Quere, C.; Raupach, M. R.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 104, Issue 47
From land use to land cover: restoring the afforestation signal in a coupled integrated assessment–earth system model and the implications for CMIP5 RCP simulations
journal, January 2014
- Di Vittorio, A. V.; Chini, L. P.; Bond-Lamberty, B.
- Biogeosciences, Vol. 11, Issue 22
Global Carbon Budget 2015
text, January 2015
- Le Quéré, Corinne; Moriarty, Róisín; Andrew, Robbie M.
- ETH Zurich
The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) contribution to CMIP6: Rationale and experimental design
text, January 2016
- Lawrence, David M.; Hurtt, George C.; Arneth, Almut
- Karlsruhe
Revised estimates of the annual net flux of carbon to the atmosphere from changes in land use and land management 1850–2000
journal, January 2003
- Houghton, R. A.
- Tellus B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology, Vol. 55, Issue 2
Works referencing / citing this record:
Potential roles of CO2 fertilization, nitrogen deposition, climate change, and land use and land cover change on the global terrestrial carbon uptake in the twenty-first century
journal, August 2018
- Tharammal, Thejna; Bala, Govindasamy; Narayanappa, Devaraju
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 52, Issue 7-8