Attributing the Carbon Cycle Impacts of CMIP5 Historical and Future Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1)

Lawrence, Peter J.; Lawrence, David M.; Hurtt, George C.

doi:10.1029/2017jg004348

Title: Attributing the Carbon Cycle Impacts of CMIP5 Historical and Future Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1)

Journal Article · 03 May 2018 · Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2017jg004348 · OSTI ID:1539735

^[1];

^[2];

^[3]

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); DOE/OSTI
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)

Historical global land use and land cover change (LULCC) emissions of 160 PgC represent a third of all human CO₂ emissions from 1850 to 2010. Future land management decisions will have large impacts on the global carbon cycle, with scenarios ranging from continued deforestation and wood harvest to mitigation scenarios that reduce total emissions through afforestation and conversion to bioenergy. Here we present a systematic assessment of Community Earth System Model (CESM1) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) historic and projection simulations, with and without LULCC. For the historical period, CESM produced a Net LULCC flux of 123 PgC to the atmosphere, removing 130 PgC from ecosystems while increasing wood product pools by 7 PgC. Historical LULCC fluxes were equally divided between conversion and wood harvest fluxes. For the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 afforestation scenario CESM produced a Net LULCC flux of 53 PgC to the atmosphere, removing 58 PgC out of the ecosystem and increasing wood product pools of 5 PgC. The afforestation offsets the Direct LULCC flux of 153 PgC with a negative Indirect LULCC flux of 94 PgC. For the RCP 8.5 high LULCC scenario, CESM produced a Net LULCC flux of 211 PgC, removing 227 PgC from ecosystems and increasing wood product pools of 15 PgC. The LULCC of the future RCP scenarios was dominated by wood harvest fluxes, which is a process that was not included in many of the CMIP5 models. The analysis framework also allowed the attribution of Indirect and Prior LULCC fluxes that offset the Direct LULCC fluxes in many cases.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Cite

Export

Save

Research Organization:: Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC)

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0012972; FC03-97ER62402

OSTI ID:: 1539735

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1438939

Journal Information:: Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences, Journal Name: Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences Journal Issue: 5 Vol. 123; ISSN 2169-8953

Publisher:: American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

References (45)

Effect of Anthropogenic Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes on Climate and Land Carbon Storage in CMIP5 Projections for the Twenty-First Century Brovkin, V.; Boysen, L.; Arora, V. K. Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 18 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00623.1	journal	September 2013
Global Carbon Budget 2015 Le Quéré, Corinne; Moriarty, Róisín; Andrew, Robbie M. ETH Zurich https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000108126	text	January 2015
Improving canopy processes in the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) using global flux fields empirically inferred from FLUXNET data Bonan, Gordon B.; Lawrence, Peter J.; Oleson, Keith W. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 116, Issue G2 https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JG001593	journal	January 2011
Representing leaf and root physiological traits in CLM improves global carbon and nitrogen cycling predictions: LEAF AND ROOT TRAITS IN CLM Ghimire, Bardan; Riley, William J.; Koven, Charles D. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 8, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015MS000538	journal	May 2016
A Large and Persistent Carbon Sink in the World's Forests Pan, Y.; Birdsey, R. A.; Fang, J. Science, Vol. 333, Issue 6045 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1201609	journal	July 2011
The CCSM4 Land Simulation, 1850–2005: Assessment of Surface Climate and New Capabilities Lawrence, David M.; Oleson, Keith W.; Flanner, Mark G. Journal of Climate, Vol. 25, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00103.1	journal	April 2012
From land use to land cover: restoring the afforestation signal in a coupled integrated assessment–earth system model and the implications for CMIP5 RCP simulations Di Vittorio, A. V.; Chini, L. P.; Bond-Lamberty, B. Biogeosciences, Vol. 11, Issue 22 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6435-2014	journal	January 2014
Comparing the influence of net and gross anthropogenic land-use and land-cover changes on the carbon cycle in the MPI-ESM Wilkenskjeld, S.; Kloster, S.; Pongratz, J. Biogeosciences, Vol. 11, Issue 17 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-4817-2014	journal	January 2014
How much land-based greenhouse gas mitigation can be achieved without compromising food security and environmental goals? Smith, Pete; Haberl, Helmut; Popp, Alexander Global Change Biology, Vol. 19, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12160	journal	May 2013
The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) contribution to CMIP6: rationale and experimental design Lawrence, David M.; Hurtt, George C.; Arneth, Almut Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2973-2016	journal	January 2016
Preindustrial-Control and Twentieth-Century Carbon Cycle Experiments with the Earth System Model CESM1(BGC) Lindsay, Keith; Bonan, Gordon B.; Doney, Scott C. Journal of Climate, Vol. 27, Issue 24 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00565.1	journal	December 2014
Effect of increasing CO ₂ on the terrestrial carbon cycle Schimel, David; Stephens, Britton B.; Fisher, Joshua B. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 112, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1407302112	journal	December 2014
The representative concentration pathways: an overview van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Edmonds, Jae; Kainuma, Mikiko Climatic Change, Vol. 109, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z	journal	August 2011
Terminology as a key uncertainty in net land use and land cover change carbon flux estimates Pongratz, J.; Reick, C. H.; Houghton, R. A. Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 5, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-177-2014	journal	January 2014
Effects of global irrigation on the near-surface climate Sacks, William J.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Buenning, Nikolaus Climate Dynamics, Vol. 33, Issue 2-3 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0445-z	journal	July 2008
Global carbon budget 2015 Le Quere, C.; Moriarty, R.; Andrew, R. M. Karlsruhe https://doi.org/10.5445/ir/110103976	text	January 2015
Carbon–Concentration and Carbon–Climate Feedbacks in CMIP5 Earth System Models Arora, Vivek K.; Boer, George J.; Friedlingstein, Pierre Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 15 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00494.1	journal	August 2013
Quantifying the Effects of Historical Land Cover Conversion Uncertainty on Global Carbon and Climate Estimates Di Vittorio, A. V.; Mao, J.; Shi, X. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075124	journal	January 2018
Historical carbon dioxide emissions caused by land-use changes are possibly larger than assumed Arneth, A.; Sitch, S.; Pongratz, J. Nature Geoscience, Vol. 10, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2882	journal	January 2017
RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100 Thomson, Allison M.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Smith, Steven J. Climatic Change, Vol. 109, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4	journal	July 2011
The effect of vertically resolved soil biogeochemistry and alternate soil C and N models on C dynamics of CLM4 Koven, C. D.; Riley, W. J.; Subin, Z. M. Biogeosciences, Vol. 10, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-7109-2013	journal	January 2013
Interactive Crop Management in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1): Seasonal Influences on Land–Atmosphere Fluxes Levis, Samuel; Bonan, Gordon B.; Kluzek, Erik Journal of Climate, Vol. 25, Issue 14 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00446.1	journal	July 2012
Global potential of biospheric carbon management for climate mitigation Canadell, Josep G.; Schulze, E. Detlef Nature Communications, Vol. 5, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms6282	journal	November 2014
Last Millennium Climate and Its Variability in CCSM4 Landrum, Laura; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Wahl, Eugene R. Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00326.1	journal	February 2013
Carbon cost of plant nitrogen acquisition: global carbon cycle impact from an improved plant nitrogen cycle in the Community Land Model Shi, Mingjie; Fisher, Joshua B.; Brzostek, Edward R. Global Change Biology, Vol. 22, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13131	journal	January 2016
Carbon emissions from land use and land-cover change Houghton, R. A.; House, J. I.; Pongratz, J. Biogeosciences, Vol. 9, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-5125-2012	journal	January 2012
The Community Land Model underestimates land-use CO ₂ emissions by neglecting soil disturbance from cultivation Levis, S.; Hartman, M. D.; Bonan, G. B. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 7, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-613-2014	journal	January 2014
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Variability in the Community Earth System Model: Evaluation and Transient Dynamics during the Twentieth and Twenty-First Centuries Keppel-Aleks, Gretchen; Randerson, James T.; Lindsay, Keith Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 13, p. 4447-4475 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00589.1	journal	July 2013
Simulating the Biogeochemical and Biogeophysical Impacts of Transient Land Cover Change and Wood Harvest in the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) from 1850 to 2100 Lawrence, Peter J.; Feddema, Johannes J.; Bonan, Gordon B. Journal of Climate, Vol. 25, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00256.1	journal	May 2012
Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks Canadell, J. G.; Le Quere, C.; Raupach, M. R. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 104, Issue 47 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0702737104	journal	October 2007
Revised estimates of the annual net flux of carbon to the atmosphere from changes in land use and land management 1850–2000 Houghton, R. A. Tellus B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology, Vol. 55, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusb.v55i2.16764	journal	January 2003
Effects of model structural uncertainty on carbon cycle projections: biological nitrogen fixation as a case study Wieder, William R.; Cleveland, Cory C.; Lawrence, David M. Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 10, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/4/044016	journal	April 2015
A theoretical framework for the net land-to-atmosphere CO ₂ flux and its implications in the definition of "emissions from land-use change" Gasser, T.; Ciais, P. Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 4, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-171-2013	journal	January 2013
Uncertainties in the 20th century carbon budget associated with land use change: LUC UNCERTAINTIES IN 20TH CENTURY CARBON BUDGET Arora, V. K.; Boer, G. J. Global Change Biology, Vol. 16, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02202.x	journal	February 2010
Evaluating the Land and Ocean Components of the Global Carbon Cycle in the CMIP5 Earth System Models Anav, A.; Friedlingstein, P.; Kidston, M. Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 18 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00417.1	journal	September 2013
Revised estimates of the annual net flux of carbon to the atmosphere from changes in land use and land management 1850-2000 Houghton, R. A. Tellus B, Vol. 55, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0889.2003.01450.x	journal	April 2003
Response to Increasing Southern Hemisphere Winds in CCSM4 Gent, Peter R.; Danabasoglu, Gokhan Journal of Climate, Vol. 24, Issue 19 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-10-05011.1	journal	October 2011
The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) contribution to CMIP6: Rationale and experimental design Lawrence, David M.; Hurtt, George C.; Arneth, Almut Karlsruhe https://doi.org/10.5445/ir/1000060650	text	January 2016
Interactions between land use change and carbon cycle feedbacks: Land Use and Carbon Cycle Feedbacks Mahowald, Natalie M.; Randerson, James T.; Lindsay, Keith Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 31, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GB005374	journal	January 2017
Uncertainties in CMIP5 Climate Projections due to Carbon Cycle Feedbacks Friedlingstein, Pierre; Meinshausen, Malte; Arora, Vivek K. Journal of Climate, Vol. 27, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00579.1	journal	January 2014
RCP 8.5—A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions Riahi, Keywan; Rao, Shilpa; Krey, Volker Climatic Change, Vol. 109, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y	journal	August 2011
Quantifying carbon-nitrogen feedbacks in the Community Land Model (CLM4): CARBON-NITROGEN FEEDBACKS IN CLM4 Bonan, Gordon B.; Levis, Samuel Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 37, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL042430	journal	April 2010
A theoretical framework for the net land-to-atmosphere CO2 flux and its implications in the definition of “emissions from land-use change" Gasser, T.; Ciais, P. Earth System Dynamics Discussions https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-4-179-2013	journal	January 2013
Global Carbon Budget 2015 Le Quéré, C.; Moriarty, R.; Andrew, R. M. Earth System Science Data, Vol. 7, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-349-2015	journal	January 2015
Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500–2100: 600 years of global gridded annual land-use transitions, wood harvest, and resulting secondary lands Hurtt, G. C.; Chini, L. P.; Frolking, S. Climatic Change, Vol. 109, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0153-2	journal	August 2011

Cited By (1)

Potential roles of CO2 fertilization, nitrogen deposition, climate change, and land use and land cover change on the global terrestrial carbon uptake in the twenty-first century Tharammal, Thejna; Bala, Govindasamy; Narayanappa, Devaraju Climate Dynamics, Vol. 52, Issue 7-8 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4388-8	journal	August 2018

Similar Records

From land use to land cover: Restoring the afforestation signal in a coupled integrated assessment - earth system model and the implications for CMIP5 RCP simulations

Journal Article · 2014 · Biogeosciences · OSTI ID:1166830

Di Vittorio, Alan V.; Chini, Louise M.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; +11 more

Simulating the biogeochemical and biogeophysical impacts of transient land cover change and wood harvest in the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) from 1850 to 2100

Journal Article · 2012 · Journal of Climate · OSTI ID:1254080

Lawrence, Peter J.; Feddema, Johannes J.; Bonan, Gordon B.; +8 more

Final Report for ''SOURCES AND SINKS OF CARBON FROM LAND-USE CHANGE AND MANAGEMENT: A GLOBAL SYNTHESIS'' Project Period September 15, 2001--September 14, 2003

Technical Report · 2003 · OSTI ID:820071

Houghton, R A

Related Subjects

58 GEOSCIENCES
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
Geology

Title: Attributing the Carbon Cycle Impacts of CMIP5 Historical and Future Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1)

Citation Formats

References (45)

Cited By (1)

Similar Records

Related Subjects