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Title: Attributing the Carbon Cycle Impacts of CMIP5 Historical and Future Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1)

Abstract

Historical global land use and land cover change (LULCC) emissions of 160 PgC represent a third of all human CO 2 emissions from 1850 to 2010. Future land management decisions will have large impacts on the global carbon cycle, with scenarios ranging from continued deforestation and wood harvest to mitigation scenarios that reduce total emissions through afforestation and conversion to bioenergy. Here we present a systematic assessment of Community Earth System Model (CESM1) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) historic and projection simulations, with and without LULCC. For the historical period, CESM produced a Net LULCC flux of 123 PgC to the atmosphere, removing 130 PgC from ecosystems while increasing wood product pools by 7 PgC. Historical LULCC fluxes were equally divided between conversion and wood harvest fluxes. For the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 afforestation scenario CESM produced a Net LULCC flux of 53 PgC to the atmosphere, removing 58 PgC out of the ecosystem and increasing wood product pools of 5 PgC. The afforestation offsets the Direct LULCC flux of 153 PgC with a negative Indirect LULCC flux of 94 PgC. For the RCP 8.5 high LULCC scenario, CESM produced a Net LULCC flux of 211 PgC,more » removing 227 PgC from ecosystems and increasing wood product pools of 15 PgC. The LULCC of the future RCP scenarios was dominated by wood harvest fluxes, which is a process that was not included in many of the CMIP5 models. The analysis framework also allowed the attribution of Indirect and Prior LULCC fluxes that offset the Direct LULCC fluxes in many cases.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2]
  1. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
  2. Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
OSTI Identifier:
1539735
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1438939
Grant/Contract Number:  
SC0012972; FC03-97ER62402; DE‐FC03‐97ER62402/A010; DE‐SC0012972
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 123; Journal Issue: 5; Journal ID: ISSN 2169-8953
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
58 GEOSCIENCES; Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Geology

Citation Formats

Lawrence, Peter J., Lawrence, David M., and Hurtt, George C. Attributing the Carbon Cycle Impacts of CMIP5 Historical and Future Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1). United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1029/2017jg004348.
Lawrence, Peter J., Lawrence, David M., & Hurtt, George C. Attributing the Carbon Cycle Impacts of CMIP5 Historical and Future Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1). United States. doi:10.1029/2017jg004348.
Lawrence, Peter J., Lawrence, David M., and Hurtt, George C. Fri . "Attributing the Carbon Cycle Impacts of CMIP5 Historical and Future Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1)". United States. doi:10.1029/2017jg004348. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1539735.
@article{osti_1539735,
title = {Attributing the Carbon Cycle Impacts of CMIP5 Historical and Future Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1)},
author = {Lawrence, Peter J. and Lawrence, David M. and Hurtt, George C.},
abstractNote = {Historical global land use and land cover change (LULCC) emissions of 160 PgC represent a third of all human CO2 emissions from 1850 to 2010. Future land management decisions will have large impacts on the global carbon cycle, with scenarios ranging from continued deforestation and wood harvest to mitigation scenarios that reduce total emissions through afforestation and conversion to bioenergy. Here we present a systematic assessment of Community Earth System Model (CESM1) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) historic and projection simulations, with and without LULCC. For the historical period, CESM produced a Net LULCC flux of 123 PgC to the atmosphere, removing 130 PgC from ecosystems while increasing wood product pools by 7 PgC. Historical LULCC fluxes were equally divided between conversion and wood harvest fluxes. For the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 afforestation scenario CESM produced a Net LULCC flux of 53 PgC to the atmosphere, removing 58 PgC out of the ecosystem and increasing wood product pools of 5 PgC. The afforestation offsets the Direct LULCC flux of 153 PgC with a negative Indirect LULCC flux of 94 PgC. For the RCP 8.5 high LULCC scenario, CESM produced a Net LULCC flux of 211 PgC, removing 227 PgC from ecosystems and increasing wood product pools of 15 PgC. The LULCC of the future RCP scenarios was dominated by wood harvest fluxes, which is a process that was not included in many of the CMIP5 models. The analysis framework also allowed the attribution of Indirect and Prior LULCC fluxes that offset the Direct LULCC fluxes in many cases.},
doi = {10.1029/2017jg004348},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences},
number = 5,
volume = 123,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {5}
}

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Works referenced in this record:

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Variability in the Community Earth System Model: Evaluation and Transient Dynamics during the Twentieth and Twenty-First Centuries
journal, July 2013

  • Keppel-Aleks, Gretchen; Randerson, James T.; Lindsay, Keith
  • Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 13, p. 4447-4475
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