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Title: Reversal of Increasing Tropical Ocean Hypoxia Trends With Sustained Climate Warming

Abstract

Dissolved oxygen (O 2) is essential for the survival of marine animals. Climate change impacts on future oxygen distributions could modify species biogeography, trophic interactions, biodiversity, and biogeochemistry. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models predict a decreasing trend in marine O 2 over the 21st century. Here we show that this increasing hypoxia trend reverses in the tropics after 2100 in the Community Earth System Model forced by atmospheric CO 2 from the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and Extended Concentration Pathway 8.5. In tropical intermediate waters between 200 and 1,000 m, the model predicts a steady decline of O 2 and an expansion of oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) during the 21st century. By 2150, however, the trend reverses with oxygen concentration increasing and OMZ volume shrinking through 2300. A novel five-box model approach in conjunction with output from the full Earth system model is used to separate the contributions of biological and physical processes to the trends in tropical oxygen. The tropical O 2 recovery is caused mainly by reductions in tropical biological export, coupled with a modest increase in ventilation after 2200. The time-evolving oxygen distribution impacts marine nitrogen cycling, with potentially important climate feedbacks.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1];  [1];  [2]; ORCiD logo [1]
  1. Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States)
  2. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
OSTI Identifier:
1537296
Grant/Contract Number:  
SC0016539
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Global Biogeochemical Cycles
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 32; Journal Issue: 4; Journal ID: ISSN 0886-6236
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Geology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Citation Formats

Fu, Weiwei, Primeau, Francois, Keith Moore, J., Lindsay, Keith, and Randerson, James T. Reversal of Increasing Tropical Ocean Hypoxia Trends With Sustained Climate Warming. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1002/2017gb005788.
Fu, Weiwei, Primeau, Francois, Keith Moore, J., Lindsay, Keith, & Randerson, James T. Reversal of Increasing Tropical Ocean Hypoxia Trends With Sustained Climate Warming. United States. doi:10.1002/2017gb005788.
Fu, Weiwei, Primeau, Francois, Keith Moore, J., Lindsay, Keith, and Randerson, James T. Tue . "Reversal of Increasing Tropical Ocean Hypoxia Trends With Sustained Climate Warming". United States. doi:10.1002/2017gb005788. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1537296.
@article{osti_1537296,
title = {Reversal of Increasing Tropical Ocean Hypoxia Trends With Sustained Climate Warming},
author = {Fu, Weiwei and Primeau, Francois and Keith Moore, J. and Lindsay, Keith and Randerson, James T.},
abstractNote = {Dissolved oxygen (O2) is essential for the survival of marine animals. Climate change impacts on future oxygen distributions could modify species biogeography, trophic interactions, biodiversity, and biogeochemistry. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models predict a decreasing trend in marine O2 over the 21st century. Here we show that this increasing hypoxia trend reverses in the tropics after 2100 in the Community Earth System Model forced by atmospheric CO2 from the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and Extended Concentration Pathway 8.5. In tropical intermediate waters between 200 and 1,000 m, the model predicts a steady decline of O2 and an expansion of oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) during the 21st century. By 2150, however, the trend reverses with oxygen concentration increasing and OMZ volume shrinking through 2300. A novel five-box model approach in conjunction with output from the full Earth system model is used to separate the contributions of biological and physical processes to the trends in tropical oxygen. The tropical O2 recovery is caused mainly by reductions in tropical biological export, coupled with a modest increase in ventilation after 2200. The time-evolving oxygen distribution impacts marine nitrogen cycling, with potentially important climate feedbacks.},
doi = {10.1002/2017gb005788},
journal = {Global Biogeochemical Cycles},
number = 4,
volume = 32,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {3}
}

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